ATL : INVEST 93L

[senorpepr]

Blah... "code yellow" is so... greatone-ish.

lol ...
well it is a different forecaster this time ..

Well, it would be one thing if those forecasters said "code yellow"...

[AdamFirst]

We won't have much to deal with this system until tomorrow evening into Monday morning when it goes farther into the Gulf...so now we just gotta sit back and see if it survives until then.

[cycloneye]

Here is the code yellow.

Not surprised by the downgrade of code as its overland in Yucatan and still doesnt have a well defined Low Level Circulation.

[lrak]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Since this will not develope over land and imerge off the west coast of the Yucatan will it continue the sharp turn to the right towards Florida like all the models have indicated or continue towards Mexico now?

[ronjon]

TAFB 48 hr forecast.

[HouTXmetro]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

Since this will not develope over land and imerge off the west coast of the Yucatan will it continue the sharp turn to the right towards Florida like all the models have indicated or continue towards Mexico now?

With that High Anchored in the middle of the Gulf it has no choice but go North/Northeast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N87W SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 7N89W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 18N. ISOLATE MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER ALL OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES IN PART FROM FORCING BY THE WAVE IN PART FROM NORMAL
AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE TROPICS. NUMEROUS STATION...BUOY...
AND A 1506Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A DISTINCT TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AS OF YET NO SURFACE LOW. THE GFS 700 MB ANALYSES
SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS LEVEL.
THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH A MAXIMUM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[wxman57]

But wait a minute this storm isn't tall or formed up, are the models anticipating a tall storm really fast? Otherwise the low level winds are tracking West to Mexico?

No, the models are tracking the low to mid-level vorticity. There's nothing to take it to the west. And nothing to give you any rain there in Corpus, Irak. Sorry.

Once again, convection flares up then falls apart. Tops are warming significantly now. Surface obs show nothing in the area, not even a well-defined trof, much less a low center. What I do see is improved outflow across the disturbance. But a trof is digging south through Florida, so the more favorable upper-level winds may not last long. And still there's nothing to focus the convection. Be thankful, those of you in Florida, that you may get some well-needed rain without the power getting knocked out for weeks in this heat.

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

AL, 93, 2009062800, , BEST, 0, 200N, 874W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[MGC]

This disturbance should be a code "pink" as in "it ain't gonna happen." Just a cluster of unorganized thunderstorms drifting to the north. Might get its act together in the GOM on Monday or Tuesday.....MGC

[brunota2003]

Just a tropical wave being aided by outflow boundaries from storms and the ULL to it's west, providing forcing to lift up the parcels of air

IMHO, of course. Is any of that right? I dunno.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track Position


Position=Latitud,20.0n - Longitud,87.4w
Winds=25 kts
Pressure=1008 mbs
System=Disturbance

AL, 93, 2009062800, , BEST, 0, 200N, 874W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Derek Ortt]

I wonder if they cancelled the aircraft since none of the TWOs mentioned the possibility of a flight tomorrow

[Macrocane]

As convection didn't persist, the Low level center it's not well defined, time to organize is ending and models doesn't show anything I'm not expecting important development from this Invest I would be very surprised if it becomes a TD.

[cycloneye]

Maybe its time to look towards the east?

[Derek Ortt]

Maybe its time to look towards the east?

yeah... in about 6 weeks, lol

[xironman]

As convection didn't persist, the Low level center it's not well defined, time to organize is ending and models doesn't show anything I'm not expecting important development from this Invest I would be very surprised if it becomes a TD.

Why would the time to organize be ending? The upper air pattern looks better once it is in the gulf.

[MGC]

I would not give up on 93L until it moves inland. With the tropics one never knows what Mother Nature will decide to do.....how many here gave up on the disturbance that eventually became TD-1? As I recall it looked rather pathetic in the days before it got its act together. There is the possibility that 93L could develope over the gulf......MGC

[Dionne]

Irregardless of color code or models......today seems like the right time to stash fuel supplies for the season.

When you say fuel are you refering to Gasoline or Liquor??

Gasoline. Two reasons; 1) warm beer sucks and 2) beer and chain saws are a bad mix.