New form of El Nino may increase Atlantic storms

[Lurker]

Interesting article.....2004 was an El Nino Modoki - 2009 could still get interesting

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 347_2.html

[Macrocane]

Interesting, but if that's the case the only Modoki El Niño that comes to my mind is 2004, does anyone know other cases?

[Pearl River]

This sounds like an attempt to use the "global warming" factor, even though it wasn't mentioned in the article.

[cycloneye]

Interesting, but if that's the case the only Modoki El Niño that comes to my mind is 2004, does anyone know other cases?

Maybe.well back in centuries,these kind of Modoki El Nino may haved occured sometimes.This is a very different wisdom about the effects of El Nino in the Atlantic that we have to watch.

[HurricaneBill]

Interesting, but if that's the case the only Modoki El Niño that comes to my mind is 2004, does anyone know other cases?

1969?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Google Fu

This unique warming in the central equatorial Pacific associated with a horseshoe pattern is flanked by a colder sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on both sides along the equator.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006JC003798.shtml




I don't see cold flanking the warm...


My amateur opinion, a 1997 type, and since we missed the 4 June/early July storms, an extremely calm year.

[KWT]

Apart from the fact that 1997 was already pretty much in the strong category already by this point, this El Nino is about the same level as 2002, but no where near the 1997 at this moment.

[Macrocane]

1969?

You're right 1969 could have been a Modoki, it was very active.

[vacanechaser]

Google Fu

This unique warming in the central equatorial Pacific associated with a horseshoe pattern is flanked by a colder sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on both sides along the equator.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006JC003798.shtml




I don't see cold flanking the warm...


My amateur opinion, a 1997 type, and since we missed the 4 June/early July storms, an extremely calm year.

1997??? no way... i dont see that type of el nino coming... and are you saying that because those storms have not developed already this year you expect it to be very quiet for most of the season??? lets not forget 2004!!! we didnt see anything until late july early august with alex... its still way to early to know for sure, but the nino does not look to be developing that strongly..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hurricanetrack]

I would think that the lack of non-tropical development is a sign that we are not experiencing full blown El Nino effects in the Atlantic Basin. It is very typical to see little to no activity in June or July. Since there is perhaps no way to really know that YES, El Nino is keeping the Atlantic suppressed right now, we can only go by the evidence at hand- and that is simple: so far, the season is behaving exactly as climatology would suggest it should. If it is late August and we still have no named storms, then I would point a big finger at El Nino.

[jinftl]

good point...and i agree...the lack of storms on july 3 is not a definite nod to the power of the developing el nino (i say developing because there has to be a 3-month average ONI index of 0.5C or greater to be an offiial el nino...we have crossed into that range for about the past month...so the 3-month average doesn't meet the requirement).

Another thing to consider is that an el nino is not like a light switch that will turn on or off tropical activity. It is one factor that influences the atmospheric conditions that promote or inhibit storm formation. Generally, shear is higher in the basin during el ninos...but this is something that is always in a state of flux based on the placement of highs, lows, etc. Nor is shear a constant level across the basin....so if a system is in the right location in the Caribbean, Gulf, etc...the presence of water 1 deg Celsius warmer than normal off Peru in Ecaudor is not an automatic development deal-breaker. Just another factor to consider along with ocean temp, dry air, non-el nino shear, etc. This is a spectrum issue with degrees of impact that constantly are in flux...not a yes/no issue.

Current shear map illustrates the variability in shear across the basin....there is no reason the map won't reflect such variability during the peak of the season. Look at current shear from the Bahamas into the Gulf..very low. Next week, that same region could have higher shear, which could then relax the next week based on the progression of systems in the atmosphere. Sneak a system into a low shear zone with all other factors coming together and the warmer water off of Peru...and the resulting atmospheric changes...won't unfortunately preclude a threat if the system approaches land later in the season.

I would think that the lack of non-tropical development is a sign that we are not experiencing full blown El Nino effects in the Atlantic Basin. It is very typical to see little to no activity in June or July. Since there is perhaps no way to really know that YES, El Nino is keeping the Atlantic suppressed right now, we can only go by the evidence at hand- and that is simple: so far, the season is behaving exactly as climatology would suggest it should. If it is late August and we still have no named storms, then I would point a big finger at El Nino.

[cycloneye]

So far with the data available,there has not been a El Nino declared nor by Climate Prediction Center nor by the Australians.When will they do the declaration is the question.Agree with you Mark,about not jumping to conclusions early and wait to the peak of the season.

See the ENSO Updates thread for more information viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0

[x-y-no]

This looks like really bleeding-edge research here. It may pan out, or it may turn out to be all wrong.

[cycloneye]

Two years that started late but were active with El Nino Modoki.

1969



2004

[Lurker]

The researcher said a 50% chance of an El Nino Modoki so it indeed could be a very interesting season.

Two years that started late but were active with El Nino Modoki.

1969



2004

[TampaFl]

It also has been very, very quite world wide for tropical activity. Here it is July 3rd and there is not even an invest to look at, even in the Eastern & Western Pacific! Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[Cyclone1]

My thoughts exactly. Like... it's abnormally quiet in the EPAC, too. Odd observation for an El Nino.

[KWT]

I think globally its no shock that the low in global activity comes at the same time as quite a long lasting solar min, sems a direct correlation there IMO.

Cycloneye, raw data suggests we've been in El Nino conditions for about a month now, the 3 month average is still shy of El Nino status offically but the atmosphere right now is pretty much in an El Nino setting.

Of course as others have said El Nino doesn't mean there can't be active periods. For example a season not so often talked about is 2002. That season saw little in the first 3 months of the season but we saw a 2-3 week favorable phase and we had one storm after another develop.

[tolakram]

Jeff Masters post on the subject:

Modiki El Niños and Atlantic hurricane activity
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1253

[abajan]

I take it this year's El Nino is the culprit for the late start of the famed Indian Monsoon?