ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates

#941 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:55 pm

Here is a great loop of the strong El Nino of 1997-98 and how it transitioned to La Nina in 1999.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#942 Postby El Nino » Fri Jul 24, 2009 6:29 pm

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif

Very interesting to see this. Cold anomalies are developping in the W part, and warm anomalies are coming back in the E part. Meanwhile winds are more and more coming from the West ... The real beginning of El Nino ?
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Re: ENSO Updates=30 day SOI continues positive (Since July 3rd)

#943 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 25, 2009 5:29 pm

2010 looks very promising for those who like to track Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic basin.But we have to see first how the 2009 season pans out with the mixed signals that ENSO has.

Image

The 30 day SOI index has gone down a little,but still remains at positive territory and that status has been since July 3rd.

2009060420090703 .4
2009060520090704 .4
2009060620090705 1.2
2009060720090706 .5
2009060820090707 .6
2009060920090708 .6
2009061020090709 2.9
2009061120090710 4.5
2009061220090711 5.9
2009061320090712 8.2
2009061420090713 8.9
2009061520090714 8.9
2009061620090715 8.2
2009061720090716 8.2
2009061820090717 9.6
2009061920090718 11
2009062020090719 11.7
2009062120090720 11.6
2009062220090721 10.9
2009062320090722 10.2
2009062420090723 9.5
2009062520090724 8.8
2009062620090725 7.5
2009062720090726 6.8
2009062820090727 5.5
2009062920090728 4.2
2009063020090729 2.2





Image

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

For those who dont know what the SOI does in terms of ENSO here is the SOI glossary.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml
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Re: ENSO Updates

#944 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 27, 2009 1:32 pm

Climate Prediction Center 7/27/09 Update

No changes from last weeks numbers at El Nino 3 / 3-4 and 4 areas.The only decrease was at El Nino 1-2 area.In other words,what we have in the Pacific right now is a weak El Nino and it has stayed that way since early July.The question is has el nino peaked so quickly or is going to reach moderate status at some point down the road?

Last Weeks Numbers:

Niño 4= +0.6ºC
Niño 3.4= +0.9ºC
Niño 3= +1.0ºC
Niño1+2= +0.8ºC


This Weeks Numbers:
Niño 4=+0.6ºC
Niño 3.4=+0.9ºC
Niño 3=+1.0ºC
Niño1+2=+0.6ºC

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

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#945 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:18 pm

good nino 1.2 is cooling...i like that.
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Re:

#946 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:26 pm

deltadog03 wrote:good nino 1.2 is cooling...i like that.


Why you like it?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#947 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 28, 2009 8:51 am

I haved not seen big changes of this graphic in almost a month.If something has to be mentioned,that +1.0C circle has turned a little more smaller than before as in the past data it was extending all the way to 100w.

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http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/
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Re: ENSO Updates

#948 Postby El Nino » Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:23 am

I thought El Nino was redevelopping but now, I'm not sure anymore. And it appears that sub-surface anomalies are easying ...
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Re: ENSO Updates=30 day SOI continues positive (Since July 3rd)

#949 Postby Category 5 » Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:23 am

cycloneye wrote:2010 looks very promising for those who like to track Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic basin.But we have to see first how the 2009 season pans out with the mixed signals that ENSO has.



....really? Its July 28th and we're already talking about next season? :wall:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#950 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:58 am

El Nino wrote:I thought El Nino was redevelopping but now, I'm not sure anymore. And it appears that sub-surface anomalies are easying ...


Whatever graphic you look to,it shows no real progress of El Nino changing from weak towards being in a moderate status.If anything,it has stalled its warming.

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#951 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Jul 28, 2009 3:55 pm

I like it for the upcoming winter...
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Re: ENSO Updates

#952 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 29, 2009 7:03 am

The last two days has seen the daily soi index gone to negative.The 30 day soi index has followed with falling numbers but still at positive status.

28-Jul-2009 -6.09
29-Jul-2009 -15.14


http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/
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Re: ENSO Updates

#953 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 29, 2009 1:41 pm

If you look at the tao graphic at 7 posts above,the circle of +1.0C continues to get smaller.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#954 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 30, 2009 7:50 am

No big change on todays updated graphic of the anomalies in the Pacific.In other words,El Nino has not made more progress towards moderate status since Climate Prediction Center made the classification at July 9th.In fact,if you look closely,you can see a little difference between July 9 and July 30 by the less orange color on the July 30 graphic.

July 9

Image

July 30

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#955 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:03 am

Are there any similarities between El Nino of 2004 and this year?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#956 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:09 am

Blown_away wrote:Are there any similarities between El Nino of 2004 and this year?


There is a difference between 2009 and 2004 and that is cooler anomalies at el nino 1-2 and el nino 3.That is known as El Nino Modoki.Article about that here. http://green.yahoo.com/news/ap/20090709 ... _nino.html

July 31,2004

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Re: ENSO Updates

#957 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 01, 2009 10:33 am

Hmmm,the subsurface was warmer in mid July than by the end of that month.El Nino getting stronger,I dont see it by this and the other graphics that are posted in the thread.The very slow Atlantic activity has to be blamed to other factors than from El Nino at this point IMO.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#958 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 01, 2009 11:00 am

We started July with a nino region 3.4 sst anomaly of +1.0C deg. We ended the month with an anomaly of +0.8C. The higher the sst anomaly, the stronger the el nino, so at the very least, conditions have held constant for the last month, or even weakened a bit in terms of el nino strength.

That fact, along with the out-of-whack SOI readings (should be negative during an el nino....instead they have been positive since mid-June), suggest we are still looking at a weak el nino and an atmosphere still very much in flux.

Dr. Jeff Master's blog yesterday mentioned just this...

El Niño conditions have remained steady over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niño 3.4 region", remain at 0.8°C above average, which is 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. An increase of another 0.2°C would push the current El Niño into the "moderate" category.

The chart below shows the strength of the sst anomalies....the higher the anomaly, the stronger the el nino. As of now, the 2006 el nino was stronger in terms of sst anomalies. The 'backing-off' of el nino strength can also be seen in July 2009.

Image

cycloneye wrote:Hmmm,the subsurface was warmer in mid July than by the end of that month.El Nino getting stronger,I dont see it by this and the other graphics that are posted in the thread.The very slow Atlantic activity has to be blamed to other factors than from El Nino at this point IMO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#959 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 03, 2009 11:21 am

Climate Prediction Center 8/3/09 update

Last weeks numbers by area:

El Nino 4 +0.6C
El Nino 3-4 +0.9C
El Nino 3 +1.0C
El Nino 1-2 +0.6C

This weeks numbers:

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 +0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 +0.8ºC
Niño 3 +0.9ºC
Niño1+2 +0.7ºC

Image

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Three of the areas went down from last weeks readings.Only el nino 1-2 area went but only a notch.In other words,what we have here continues to be a weak El Nino.

jinftl,what is your take on the latest numbers?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#960 Postby jinftl » Mon Aug 03, 2009 7:09 pm

It would appear that we have continued confirmation that while conditions did steadily transition from la nina in early 2009 to enso neutral in the springtime and to el nino initial thresholds in late may/early june, that there has been no strengthening of the el nino for the last 6 weeks or so. We have reached a plateau in terms of sst anomalies....and that statement is actually a 'stretch' when you look at the data....if i was to write what the actual data suggests, there has been a slight weakening of the el nino conditions in terms of sst anomalies and size of the area experiencing the highest sst anomalies. Making that claim would be so contrary to what we are expecting to see, that I hesitate for sure....but, the data is the data.

That said, there have been instances..many of them...where the path to el nino is not a straight line, conditions plateau, pull back some, etc.....and then in time, begin to escalate again. Almost all forecasts show a strengthening el nino by fall and winter....but is the epac warmer in terms of sst anomalies than it was a month ago? Nope. Have we journeyed deeper into el nino territory since the start of the season? Not really....maybe even a bit opposite of that is true. Add in the completely anomalous SOI index being positive during the last 7 weeks, and there is no way to make the argument the atmosphere/oceans are in a no-questions-asked strong el nino phase.

As of now....the key words being 'as of'...the 2004 el nino is very comparable to the current one. The average sst anomaly for July-Aug-Sept 2004 was 0.8C. The current (and steady for the last month) sst anomaly = 0.8C.

cycloneye wrote:Climate Prediction Center 8/3/09 update

Last weeks numbers by area:

El Nino 4 +0.6C
El Nino 3-4 +0.9C
El Nino 3 +1.0C
El Nino 1-2 +0.6C

This weeks numbers:

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 +0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 +0.8ºC
Niño 3 +0.9ºC
Niño1+2 +0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Three of the areas went down from last weeks readings.Only el nino 1-2 area went but only a notch.In other words,what we have here continues to be a weak El Nino.

jinftl,what is your take on the latest numbers?
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