Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Still looks good but we will have to see down the road.

[cycloneye]

Only GFS has the most agressive stance to this and it is not a strong system that the model develops,only to TD status the most.The rest of the models are vague from not having anything,to having small hints of something.So right now is a wait and see situation.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Looking at the closeups of images,still the low pressure is inside Africa but getting closer to the coast so later today it will emerge and that is when we have to see what will occur,organization or poof.

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

Convection appears to be decreasing now as the wave moves into a fairly dry environment. That MIMIC TPW loop site appears to be not updating, so we can't get a good look at the lower-level moisture (600mb to surface) and see any rotation. Last image was over 12 hours ago. It's a fairly strong wave, but it doesn't appear that development is likely over the coming week. I'm really doubting that we'll see Ana by the 8th.

[cycloneye]

Convection appears to be decreasing now as the wave moves into a fairly dry environment. That MIMIC TPW loop site appears to be not updating, so we can't get a good look at the lower-level moisture (600mb to surface) and see any rotation. Last image was over 12 hours ago. It's a fairly strong wave, but it doesn't appear that development is likely over the coming week. I'm really doubting that we'll see Ana by the 8th.

Do you have the garp?

[HURAKAN]

Still there.

[cycloneye]

Here is the loop of the area.Looks like some rotation within the convection South of Cape Verde islands.The rotation you see just inland is the low pressure,but it does not have much convection as the area in the water.I would look more to the convection area for any signs of organization if (and is a big if) it does so.

[Dean4Storms]

Only pick-up game in town for sure! If it stays close enough to the ITCZ and that moisture it might have a chance, any movement to the NW and it is bones!

[brunota2003]

yep, just south of 10N and on the line of 20W, certainly looks like some kind of low is there.

[jinftl]

if this can maintain itself and not go 'poof', then what the environment will be like downstream will be the key....major development at this longitude would be the quickest way to get a fish storm....a long trakker typically needs to find that balance between going 'poof' and organizing too quickly off the coast of africa if it wants to do a transatlanic crossing.

be interesting to see what the wave train looks like over the next month to 6 weeks...shoot enough canons, and some will launch properly.

yep, just south of 10N and on the line of 20W, certainly looks like some kind of low is there.

[brunota2003]

Indeed...the only thing is, if it tries to develop here and goes "poleward" (the way of the fish), then it will surely not last long on this earth.

[Sanibel]

Weak spin and headed towards the dry zone.

[Gustywind]

Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
Aug. 2, 2009 1:53 pm ET
Closer to home in the Atlantic Basin all is fairly quiet. A low pressure area will move off western Africa by tomorrow and will be monitored as it moves into a dry, stable environment.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[Ivanhater]

Not to bad..

[alan1961]

I know its the ITCZ but does anyone see spiraling with the convective mass at 43 west 10 north on animation?, probably playing tricks with me but just thought i'd ask.

[Ed Mahmoud]

AccuWX PPV Japanese Met Agency Global-

In 8 days, closed low has opened back to a convectively active wave, about a day or two from the Lesser Antilles.

[wxman57]

Could definitely see some lower-level spin on visible satellite today. But convection is minimal, and it seems to be merging with the ITCZ. Nearest observation is 400 miles to the west, so no help there. GFS sees the vorticity, develops a weak low, then recurves it northward late this week. I suppose it might have a shot at development. Or maybe I should say that I can't absolutely rule out development over the next 3-5 days. But chances are not high, probably under 10% and likely under 5%.

If it maintains moderate convection overnight (looks to be west of the spin), and if that spin is still evident tomorrow, then an invest may be declared. I think it's moving too fast now, though. By Wed/Thu, the GFS indicates high to the north weakening. This could allow for consolidation (if there's anything left by then). Just something to keep an eye on.

[cycloneye]

We may have a LLC here although a weak one,there are some good winds there.This pass was made at 4:01 PM EDT.