Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

IMO,the ECMWF model has been the stellar model so far in 2009.So in that regard,when you start to see development in this model,you can take to the bank it will occur and that is what it does with the wave behind 99L.

00z ECMWF

[Scorpion]

Claudette is right on Bill's heels

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico is hit by a cat 2 hurricane on the 26th by a third system after 99L and system #2. Caviat,is super long range.

[gatorcane]

Luis check out the 12Z GFS. Seems like the last 4-5 runs shows a direct hit for Puerto Rico

[gatorcane]

New York's turn. Good thing its way out there and likely in fantasy land:

[Ed Mahmoud]

New York's turn. Good thing its way out there and likely in fantasy land:

Bubba!

[Gustywind]

Puerto Rico is hit by a cat 2 hurricane on the 26th by a third system after 99L and system #2. Caviat,is super long range.

GODD it's just a super long range Cycloneye

[cycloneye]

This is wave #2 just NE of Puerto Rico at the 20th as a cat 2.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

[Meso]

Oh you want a PR hit in a medium range then? Here it is :p



Here is the 324 hour of the run

[cycloneye]

Derek,another besides GFS develops into a hurricane wave #2 and is 12z CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

:crazyeyes:

This is wave #2 just NE of Puerto Rico at the 20th as a cat 2.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

It's a nightmare just runs Cycloneye

[Stormcenter]

Folks come on now this is beyond amusing....324 hours out. I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lotto.

[Gustywind]

Folks come on now this is beyond amusing....324 hours out. I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lotto.

yeah if you're a regular player so good luck

[cycloneye]

Folks come on now this is beyond amusing....324 hours out. I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lotto.

CMC is 144 hours.

[ROCK]

I have won some scratch offs in Texas but never the lotto....

CEye you and your island friends are wise to take notice. CMC, GFS, and the EURO...... that about puts me onboard for development....

[Stormcenter]

But then again it's the CMC and we know it's history too predicting phantom storms. Hey but then I guess anything is possible.

Folks come on now this is beyond amusing....324 hours out. I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lotto.

CMC is 144 hours.

[cycloneye]

CMC has been improved this year with more tools.IMO is the second best model after the ECMWF in 2009.GFS is third in my book.

[Macrocane]

But then again it's the CMC and we know it's history too predicting phantom storms. Hey but then I guess anything is possible.

But it was fixed this year, I'm not saying that what it predicts will come true, but it's something that we have to take into account.

[Macrocane]

CMC has been improved this year with more tools.IMO is the second best model after the ECMWF in 2009.GFS is third in my book.

I agree with you, ECMWF has been the best model, CMC the second and NOGAPS-GFS are tied in my opinion although GFS has improved in the last few weeks.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS at 144 hours shows something although not a strong feature.