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cycloneye
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#521 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:31 am

IMO,the ECMWF model has been the stellar model so far in 2009.So in that regard,when you start to see development in this model,you can take to the bank it will occur and that is what it does with the wave behind 99L.

00z ECMWF
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Scorpion

#522 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:18 am

Claudette is right on Bill's heels

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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#523 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:25 am

Puerto Rico is hit by a cat 2 hurricane on the 26th by a third system after 99L and system #2. :eek: Caviat,is super long range. :lol:

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#524 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 10, 2009 11:36 am

Luis check out the 12Z GFS. Seems like the last 4-5 runs shows a direct hit for Puerto Rico
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#525 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 10, 2009 11:52 am

New York's turn. Good thing its way out there and likely in fantasy land:

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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#526 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 10, 2009 11:56 am

gatorcane wrote:New York's turn. Good thing its way out there and likely in fantasy land:

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Bubba!
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#527 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 10, 2009 11:57 am

cycloneye wrote:Puerto Rico is hit by a cat 2 hurricane on the 26th by a third system after 99L and system #2. :eek: Caviat,is super long range. :lol:

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GODD it's just a super long range Cycloneye :) :oops:
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#528 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:11 pm

:crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:

This is wave #2 just NE of Puerto Rico at the 20th as a cat 2.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
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#529 Postby Meso » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:11 pm

Oh you want a PR hit in a medium range then? Here it is :p

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Here is the 324 hour of the run

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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#530 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:15 pm

Derek,another besides GFS develops into a hurricane wave #2 and is 12z CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#531 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:18 pm

cycloneye wrote::crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:

This is wave #2 just NE of Puerto Rico at the 20th as a cat 2.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif


It's a nightmare :eek: :eek: :eek: just runs Cycloneye :) :oops: :oops:
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#532 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:19 pm

Folks come on now this is beyond amusing....324 hours out. I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lotto. :)
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Re:

#533 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:20 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Folks come on now this is beyond amusing....324 hours out. I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lotto. :)

:cheesy: :cheesy: :lol: yeah if you're a regular player :P so good luck :)
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Re:

#534 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:23 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Folks come on now this is beyond amusing....324 hours out. I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lotto. :)


CMC is 144 hours.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#535 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:28 pm

I have won some scratch offs in Texas but never the lotto.... :lol:

CEye you and your island friends are wise to take notice. CMC, GFS, and the EURO...... that about puts me onboard for development....
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Re: Re:

#536 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:29 pm

But then again it's the CMC and we know it's history too predicting phantom storms. Hey but then I guess anything is possible.

cycloneye wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Folks come on now this is beyond amusing....324 hours out. I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lotto. :)


CMC is 144 hours.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#537 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:34 pm

CMC has been improved this year with more tools.IMO is the second best model after the ECMWF in 2009.GFS is third in my book.
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Re: Re:

#538 Postby Macrocane » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:35 pm

Stormcenter wrote:But then again it's the CMC and we know it's history too predicting phantom storms. Hey but then I guess anything is possible.



But it was fixed this year, I'm not saying that what it predicts will come true, but it's something that we have to take into account.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#539 Postby Macrocane » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:CMC has been improved this year with more tools.IMO is the second best model after the ECMWF in 2009.GFS is third in my book.


I agree with you, ECMWF has been the best model, CMC the second and NOGAPS-GFS are tied in my opinion although GFS has improved in the last few weeks.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#540 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:50 pm

12z NOGAPS at 144 hours shows something although not a strong feature.

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