Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

Should be Code Orange at 8

keeps this up yes, funny how not one model sniffed this out if it truly does develope...looking good right now.....

not so fast.. i noticed that the 12z GFDL picked up on it... 126hrs out...





See it just off the east coast of fla..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yeah jesse i see that .. not sure if its the waves combined that the gfdl develops which is interesting since since its initializing on 99l so the resolution of anything is going to be much lower which means the gfdl sees a much more substantial system than what its showing..

[Sanibel]

Does it lose convection again or maintain? Hint of curvature there:

[Gustywind]

[ROCK]

hmm your right...it better start stair stepping soon to gain some lat if it wants to go to EC...

That EC forecast is for the little vorticity center east of this disturbance. It's farther north.

thanks WXMN57....I see that now....dont see much shear in the carib right now though.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


steering would suggest a westward track so I agree with you on that...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[vacanechaser]

keeps this up yes, funny how not one model sniffed this out if it truly does develope...looking good right now.....

not so fast.. i noticed that the 12z GFDL picked up on it... 126hrs out...





See it just off the east coast of fla..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yeah jesse i see that .. not sure if its the waves combined that the gfdl develops which is interesting since since its initializing on 99l so the resolution of anything is going to be much lower which means the gfdl sees a much more substantial system than what its showing..

my thoughts exactly aric... either way, the gfdl picks up on it and seems to take it off to the northwest or west northwest... didnt say it had to happen...just pointed it out that it was showing up on the model run... whether or not it is the same system, or the other just behind it, who knows with the resolution...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ROCK]

looking good before sundown....last burst really taking off. I think its made it to the surface...need to see a scat to know for sure.....looks like it to me though....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Its coming right at us!!!!

[ROCK]

nice one ED....thank goodness we have the westerlies to save us....

[fwbbreeze]

latest ob from Bridgetown, Barbados shows 29.85 and falling with a N wind.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/BBXX0001

29.85 equates to about 1011 mb right? Someone correct me please if I am wrong

[ROCK]

latest ob from Bridgetown, Barbados shows 29.85 and falling with a N wind.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/BBXX0001

29.85 equates to about 1011 mb right? Someone correct me please if I am wrong

close enough....

[HURAKAN]

It will be interesting to see how the wind changes in Barbados as the disturbance moves westward.

[Emmett_Brown]

LLC visible:

[Gustywind]

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Aug 10, 2009 - 05:30 PM EDTAug 10, 2009 - 04:30 PM CDTAug 10, 2009 - 03:30 PM MDTAug 10, 2009 - 02:30 PM PDTAug 10, 2009 - 01:30 PM ADTAug 10, 2009 - 12:30 PM HDT
2009.08.10 2130 UTC
Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TBPB 102130Z 02014KT 6000 -RA SCT010CB BKN100 26/25 Q1011 CB ALL QUADS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 5 PM (21) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NNE 16 light rain
4 PM (20) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) N 15 thunder in the vicinity
3 PM (19) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) N 8
2 PM (18) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) NNW 7 rain with thunder
1 PM (17) Aug 10 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 rain with thunder
Noon (16) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 13 rain with thunder
11 AM (15) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 12 rain with thunder
10 AM (14) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) N 6 light rain showers
9 AM (13) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Variable 3 rain with thunder
8 AM (12) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) E 3 rain with thunder
7 AM (11) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 6 rain with thunder
6 AM (10) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) heavy rain showers
5 AM (9) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 light rain showers
4 AM (8) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 7
3 AM (7) Aug 10 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 5
2 AM (6) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NE 8
1 AM (5) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 8
Midnight (4) Aug 10 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
11 PM (3) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ENE 8
10 PM (2) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 8
9 PM (1) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) NE 8
8 PM (0) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NE 7
7 PM (23) Aug 09 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
Oldest 6 PM (22) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 12
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather

[MGC]

I don't know....just looked like it barfed a bunch of outflow boundries....MGC

[Sanibel]

Nice thunderstorm over us right now. The season has turned. Rainy season rains finally came our direction on the Bermuda High establishing itself.

This disturbance is still compressed under the synoptic above it. I agree with Dean that if it made it this far under unfavorable conditions that once it gets a more NW tack it could explode.

You can see the "S" curve in it already.

Strangely enough it is still warm-topped so don't be surprised if it fades again.

[cycloneye]

For those members that dont live in the Eastern Caribbean and want to know what is going on in the islands with the observations as this wave moves thru,you can go to our Eastern Caribbean tent thread at Weather Attic forum.You can see many web cams at the first post of thread.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&start=0

[wxman57]

Looked at it closely this afternoon. GFS takes the vorticity due west into Honduras in 3.5 days, staying near or south of 15N. We think the squalls will stay well south of the islands of the NE Caribbean and the Greater Antilles.

In addition, GFS indicates an accelerating westerly forward speed from around 12-13 kts to start with to up to 22 kts in 48-72 hours. Acceleration = low-level divergence = diminishing thunderstorms. That starts at about 24 hours out. So its best chance of any development is tonight/tomorrow. We're estimating development chances at 10% (that's 90% chance it won't develop).

Here's a current surface plot/satellite. As you can see, not much in the way of wind associated with the disturbance:

[cycloneye]

Code Yellow

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[Kennethb]

Hard to believe this is not an official invest yet. And keep in mind the 40th anniversary date a week from today.

[wxman57]

Convection has been decreasing past 3-4 hours now. It may be missing its opportunity for development tonight.