ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#501 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:18 pm

Not sure what the real intensity is due to a large spread between data, ranging from T1.5 (SAB) to T3.2 (ADT). There is enough uncertainty IMO to keep it as a TD, although 30 kt is probably the best estimate. If only there was Recon out of Cape Verde!
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#502 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:21 pm

Yeah I suspect its probably about 30kts now, or at least getting closer to that estimate.
Will be interesting to see whether this burst holds for any length of time.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#503 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:23 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah I suspect its probably about 30kts now, or at least getting closer to that estimate.
Will be interesting to see whether this burst holds for any length of time.


If it can sustain itself for a few hours, maybe a tropical storm by morning. But unless a QuikSCAT or ASCAT pass reveals 35 kt winds, I'd keep it as a TD until then.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#504 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:28 pm

Image

TAFB has a 60 mph TS in 3 days, heading closer and closer to the Hebert Box. Maybe is just the convection expanding, but it sure does look like there is a slight southerly component to TD2.
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#505 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:37 pm

Blown_away wrote:Image

TAFB has a 60 mph TS in 3 days, heading closer and closer to the Hebert Box. Maybe is just the convection expanding, but it sure does look like there is a slight southerly component to TD2.


I don't understand that picture.. it looks like theres two different projected lines one larger line and then a smaller one pointing to CONUS?
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#506 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:38 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
.

So I took a moment to review all the available data on this thing. My take is that it stays a TD and at most TS status moving west for the next several days. There is plenty of dry and and SAL ahead of TD #2 so that should also keep it at check. But the upper-level winds appear very favorable. So the track is generally west. Because it shouldn't deepen that much and certainly not into a hurricane over the new several days expect it to miss the said weakness around 55-60W and continue moving westward. I think it probably ends up becoming an open wave in the end with all attention on the wave to move off of Africa in the next day or so. In short, if I had to go on the record I think TD #2 should not be more than a possible rainmaker for the islands at this point with a low chance of becoming a significant system into the CONUS (i.e Florida) at this point. It could move through the Bahamas, Cuba/Hispaniola as a strong tropical wave with increased rain chances into Florida down the road.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#507 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:53 pm

Shear
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#508 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:53 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 AUG 2009 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 14:37:42 N Lon : 31:08:12 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -31.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Image
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#509 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:54 pm

Ana is a little late to your birthday Luis... hopefully I have no presents for me a week from today for mine! :D
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#510 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:04 pm

Just a thought. As the Atlantic is picking up and more and more people come here (many who don't know as many things about the tropics as others), I think we should take it easy with those ADT numbers. Especially posting them in large and bold font.

Some people might see that and think thats how strong the storm really is. They might not understand that ADT numbers can be way off, especially on systems with no eye.
0 likes   

FrontRunner
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 62
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:01 pm
Location: Westchester, NY

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#511 Postby FrontRunner » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:21 pm

Give me a break. :roll:
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#512 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:24 pm

FrontRunner wrote:Give me a break. :roll:



The ADT doesn't have a person doing quality control, and can be off.


Now, no idea how to actually perform a Dvorak intensity estimate, but TD #2 is looking much more organized the past few hours, and if I had to guess, it is a 35 or 40 knot storm.


But nobody pays me to guess.
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#513 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:28 pm

30 mins till 11pm advisory.. If I had to guess.. maybe 33 percent it gets upgraded?
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#514 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:32 pm

tgenius wrote:30 mins till 11pm advisory.. If I had to guess.. maybe 33 percent it gets upgraded?


Probably not even that high. They will wait for visible images.
0 likes   

rrm
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 2:05 pm

#515 Postby rrm » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:33 pm

any chance this thing stays on a westward path and enters the western gulf of mexico?
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#516 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:34 pm

I say Ana at 11pm and a slight shift S and W on days 4-5. :roll:
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#517 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:34 pm

Not much reason to not wait until morning when you get 1. Some visual imagery, 2. Quikscat pass (at 0810Z according to the pass long on the NRL site).
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re:

#518 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:35 pm

RL3AO wrote:Just a thought. As the Atlantic is picking up and more and more people come here (many who don't know as many things about the tropics as others), I think we should take it easy with those ADT numbers. Especially posting them in large and bold font.

Some people might see that and think thats how strong the storm really is. They might not understand that ADT numbers can be way off, especially on systems with no eye.


in all seriousness there are millions of people who get their weather from either TWC....the local news...radio....or accuweather

there are about what... a thousand that come here for that technical weather stuff when things ramp up....which is a very small fraction so i don't think it is necessary .....the bigger reason is that when a storm actually becomes something stronger and threatens the general public the numbers they will look at will be the NHC updates which are basic....we are weather geeks ...this is the place to post all the other data imo. Newbies can post question in a thread for answers and if anything we could dedicate a bit more attention toward answering those in a timely fashion.

TD 2 looking good IMO but i really can't tell much without a quikscat regarding the location of the low ....would gues it is toward east edge of deeper convection.
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#519 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:40 pm

RL3AO wrote:
tgenius wrote:30 mins till 11pm advisory.. If I had to guess.. maybe 33 percent it gets upgraded?


Probably not even that high. They will wait for visible images.


True.. just that they are waiting a bit for 11pm.. usually comes in a lil early that far out.
0 likes   

User avatar
expat2carib
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 458
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
Location: Sint Maarten

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

#520 Postby expat2carib » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:42 pm

At night most people are sleeping :idea:

Why come out with something "new" until the first visionary and the Quikscat?

Let's wait with "this one" untill tomorrow morning. Nothing fast happening here. Wait and be patient........................ Uhhhh.... Sleepy. See you tomorrow.
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests