ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Evil Jeremy]

I guess the NHC is not putting to much weight in the GFS,GFDL, and Ukmet solutions, these models keep trending more W and S with each run.

The NHC made a note of the UKMET in their latest discussion, calling it an "alternative scenario", but it is suprising how they are not putting weight on the GFS and GFDL. They seem to be paying attention to the GFDL's sister model, HWRF. I wonder if the HWRF is going to end up replacing the GFDL at one point.

[HURAKAN]

We should expect a burst of convection in the next few hours. Ana-to-be is looking a lot like Irene in 2005. A lot of trouble to get going.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like it is just the daily cycle, I expect the convection to boost back up by tonight.

[HouTXmetro]

Is TD2 Diving SW?

[Sanibel]

Naked spiral allows correct fix near: 14.2 degrees north latitude-34.6 degrees west longitude


Heading near due west.

[cpdaman]

looks like a decent LLC ....looks like she started a game of strip poker a bout two hours ago and now her LLC is ready to go "streaking"

ANA you will be useful for sounding the public horn for bill

but seriously any Pro's think that the big african wave and it's "energy" is close enough to impact ANA either directly or indirectly in any way. and what way would that be

[wxman57]

Of course, now that it's being upgraded it looks worse than it has for 3 days. Center is now completely exposed.

[HouTXmetro]

Loos like it's taking the Southern route.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather. WOW.

[fox13weather]

Accuweather. WOW.

Graphics like that should be banned ...Lets scare the cr*p out of people. We will worry about sound scientific reasoning later...

[sandyb]

southern is good...better chance of developing...good chance east coast will be in for it over the next three or so weeks with a 1 - 2 hit

[Evil Jeremy]

southern is good...better chance of developing...good chance east coast will be in for it over the next three or so weeks with a 1 - 2 hit

For those reasons, I would say southern is bad. No one needs a 1-2 punch by the tropics.

[wxman57]

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/page-57.gif

Accuweather. WOW.

Looks very reasonable to me. That's exactly what we're telling our clients. But we don't deal with the general public.

[Ola]

southern is good...better chance of developing...good chance east coast will be in for it over the next three or so weeks with a 1 - 2 hit

For those reasons, I would say southern is bad. No one needs a 1-2 punch by the tropics.

Dont feed the troll

[Evil Jeremy]

Accuweather. WOW.

Graphics like that should be banned ...Lets scare the cr*p out of people. We will worry about sound scientific reasoning later...

Yesterday Accuweather came up with a graphic that pretty much acted as a 12 day prediction cone for (soon to be) Ana and (soon to be) 90L, and everywhere from Florida to the Carolinas were in that cone. They have guts. Really though, Accuweather needs to stop scaring people for attention.

[Cyclone1]

Thank you Accuweather.

[fox13weather]

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/page-57.gif

Accuweather. WOW.

Looks very reasonable to me. That's exactly what we're telling our clients. But we don't deal with the general public.

In that case every wave that comes off Africa is an east coast/ Gulf of Mexico threat. There is enough model spread that calling "Ana" and the wave coming off Africa east coast/Gulf threats is nothing more than attention grabers.

[Squarethecircle]

Geez, they can't even affix the word "potential" to those statements? That's my problem with it. If they said that "these storms could eventually pose a problem to the east coast", that's fine, but the graphic (foregoing intentions) basically says "these storms are currently threatening the east coast."

[wxman57]

In that case every wave that comes off Africa is an east coast/ Gulf of Mexico threat. There is enough model spread that calling "Ana" and the wave coming off Africa east coast/Gulf threats is nothing more than attention grabers.

Yeah, in my video I did mention that the threat could be anywhere from the Gulf Coast to out to sea off the East U.S. Coast. Way too early to tell. But it certainly is a "possible East Coast threat".

[Emmett_Brown]

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/page-57.gif

Accuweather. WOW.

Looks very reasonable to me. That's exactly what we're telling our clients. But we don't deal with the general public.

Wx, quick question; What is your feeling on the trough at the end of the Euro run. Looks kind of shallow to me. Has the Euro handled troughs well this season at long ranges (over or under doing?)

I live on the SE coast, so interested.