ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models
12z GFDL tracks into Caribbean sea
A big change from past runs.
WHXX04 KWBC 141722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 14
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.3 26.7 280./13.0
6 12.6 28.2 282./15.4
12 12.7 30.4 272./21.2
18 12.6 32.4 269./19.7
24 12.1 33.9 251./15.7
30 12.2 35.3 273./13.4
36 12.1 37.3 269./19.4
42 11.9 39.1 262./17.4
48 11.9 40.9 271./17.9
54 12.1 42.5 275./15.7
60 12.2 43.8 278./13.2
66 12.7 45.6 285./18.1
72 13.0 47.4 280./17.9
78 13.4 49.2 282./18.0
84 13.7 50.7 282./14.5
90 14.2 52.4 286./16.8
96 14.7 54.1 286./17.6
102 15.1 56.0 281./18.4
108 15.4 57.6 280./16.2
114 15.5 59.4 276./16.8
120 15.8 61.1 280./16.7
126 16.0 62.7 275./15.8
A big change from past runs.
WHXX04 KWBC 141722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 14
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.3 26.7 280./13.0
6 12.6 28.2 282./15.4
12 12.7 30.4 272./21.2
18 12.6 32.4 269./19.7
24 12.1 33.9 251./15.7
30 12.2 35.3 273./13.4
36 12.1 37.3 269./19.4
42 11.9 39.1 262./17.4
48 11.9 40.9 271./17.9
54 12.1 42.5 275./15.7
60 12.2 43.8 278./13.2
66 12.7 45.6 285./18.1
72 13.0 47.4 280./17.9
78 13.4 49.2 282./18.0
84 13.7 50.7 282./14.5
90 14.2 52.4 286./16.8
96 14.7 54.1 286./17.6
102 15.1 56.0 281./18.4
108 15.4 57.6 280./16.2
114 15.5 59.4 276./16.8
120 15.8 61.1 280./16.7
126 16.0 62.7 275./15.8
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- deltadog03
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models
[quote="Bgator"]Just pointing out that the GFS would have this hitting very close to Miami, a day before Andrew hit Miami 17 years ago.
[/quote]
If I were a betting man I'd put my money on this being an EC storm...may brush the EC of Fla but my rather sizeable gut is telling me this is going to ride up the EC...this is not based on meteorologica data or research...it's just MHO

If I were a betting man I'd put my money on this being an EC storm...may brush the EC of Fla but my rather sizeable gut is telling me this is going to ride up the EC...this is not based on meteorologica data or research...it's just MHO
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models
cycloneye wrote:12z GFDL tracks into Caribbean sea
A big change from past runs.
WHXX04 KWBC 141722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 14
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.3 26.7 280./13.0
6 12.6 28.2 282./15.4
12 12.7 30.4 272./21.2
18 12.6 32.4 269./19.7
24 12.1 33.9 251./15.7
30 12.2 35.3 273./13.4
36 12.1 37.3 269./19.4
42 11.9 39.1 262./17.4
48 11.9 40.9 271./17.9
54 12.1 42.5 275./15.7
60 12.2 43.8 278./13.2
66 12.7 45.6 285./18.1
72 13.0 47.4 280./17.9
78 13.4 49.2 282./18.0
84 13.7 50.7 282./14.5
90 14.2 52.4 286./16.8
96 14.7 54.1 286./17.6
102 15.1 56.0 281./18.4
108 15.4 57.6 280./16.2
114 15.5 59.4 276./16.8
120 15.8 61.1 280./16.7
126 16.0 62.7 275./15.8
Big shift south. Not good for the Antilles.
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- Gustywind
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Vigorous Atlantic low, Pacific hurricane
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 14, 2009 11:15 am ET
ATLANTIC
A well developed low pressure continues to get better organized in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It is located around 200 miles south-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with this low pressure, and environmental conditions remain favorable for it to become a tropical depression at any time. If this occurs, it would likely continue moving in a westward direction, but would be no threat to any land for several days.
It remains possible that this low pressure could become the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which would be Ana.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 14, 2009 11:15 am ET
ATLANTIC
A well developed low pressure continues to get better organized in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It is located around 200 miles south-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with this low pressure, and environmental conditions remain favorable for it to become a tropical depression at any time. If this occurs, it would likely continue moving in a westward direction, but would be no threat to any land for several days.
It remains possible that this low pressure could become the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which would be Ana.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:the center is moving closer to the convection
looks like the center will consolidate near 13N
Very interesting. Thanks for the update Derek, always nice to pro opinions on here.
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
wxman57 wrote:I have the GFS run a bit ahead of the online version. It takes the storm into the southern tip of Florida on the 23rd then due north up the western peninsula:
Wxman57, what is the strength of the storm in that model run when it strikes SFL? (like I said last night that is VERY close to THE worst case scenario for the state if it is a major and it follows that path) Reassuring to know that it is more than 200 hours out in the run.

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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re:
Ola wrote:I told my daughter she wont have school on next thursday, and she keeps asking my why not. I told her its a surprise that I cant tell her about just yet.
If all this pans out, she will never want you to surprise her again! LOL

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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
Less organized due to shear correct?
Brent wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models
cycloneye wrote:12z GFDL tracks into Caribbean sea
A big change from past runs.
WHXX04 KWBC 141722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 14
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.3 26.7 280./13.0
6 12.6 28.2 282./15.4
12 12.7 30.4 272./21.2
18 12.6 32.4 269./19.7
24 12.1 33.9 251./15.7
30 12.2 35.3 273./13.4
36 12.1 37.3 269./19.4
42 11.9 39.1 262./17.4
48 11.9 40.9 271./17.9
54 12.1 42.5 275./15.7
60 12.2 43.8 278./13.2
66 12.7 45.6 285./18.1
72 13.0 47.4 280./17.9
78 13.4 49.2 282./18.0
84 13.7 50.7 282./14.5
90 14.2 52.4 286./16.8
96 14.7 54.1 286./17.6
102 15.1 56.0 281./18.4
108 15.4 57.6 280./16.2
114 15.5 59.4 276./16.8
120 15.8 61.1 280./16.7
126 16.0 62.7 275./15.8
Big changes



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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
Brent wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models
I know it's a long ways away still, but the GFS is really building that second ridge over the middle us by the end of the 12Z run. More chances of an Andrew-like scenario with multiple US landfalls?
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
Lurker wrote:Less organized due to shear correct?Brent wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
its for sure under some moderate easterly shear and is displacing the convection to the west which is likely the cause of this not organizing faster... if this continues a more westward track is likely..
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