ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Derek Ortt]

the center is moving closer to the convection

looks like the center will consolidate near 13N

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL tracks into Caribbean sea

A big change from past runs.

WHXX04 KWBC 141722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 26.7 280./13.0
6 12.6 28.2 282./15.4
12 12.7 30.4 272./21.2
18 12.6 32.4 269./19.7
24 12.1 33.9 251./15.7
30 12.2 35.3 273./13.4
36 12.1 37.3 269./19.4
42 11.9 39.1 262./17.4
48 11.9 40.9 271./17.9
54 12.1 42.5 275./15.7
60 12.2 43.8 278./13.2
66 12.7 45.6 285./18.1
72 13.0 47.4 280./17.9
78 13.4 49.2 282./18.0
84 13.7 50.7 282./14.5
90 14.2 52.4 286./16.8
96 14.7 54.1 286./17.6
102 15.1 56.0 281./18.4
108 15.4 57.6 280./16.2
114 15.5 59.4 276./16.8
120 15.8 61.1 280./16.7
126 16.0 62.7 275./15.8

[deltadog03]

I agree with Derek, this looks VERY close to if not a TD already. Good look spin and its quickly getting to the deep convection.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Bgator"]Just pointing out that the GFS would have this hitting very close to Miami, a day before Andrew hit Miami 17 years ago. [/quote]


If I were a betting man I'd put my money on this being an EC storm...may brush the EC of Fla but my rather sizeable gut is telling me this is going to ride up the EC...this is not based on meteorologica data or research...it's just MHO

[Brent]

12z GFDL tracks into Caribbean sea

A big change from past runs.

WHXX04 KWBC 141722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 26.7 280./13.0
6 12.6 28.2 282./15.4
12 12.7 30.4 272./21.2
18 12.6 32.4 269./19.7
24 12.1 33.9 251./15.7
30 12.2 35.3 273./13.4
36 12.1 37.3 269./19.4
42 11.9 39.1 262./17.4
48 11.9 40.9 271./17.9
54 12.1 42.5 275./15.7
60 12.2 43.8 278./13.2
66 12.7 45.6 285./18.1
72 13.0 47.4 280./17.9
78 13.4 49.2 282./18.0
84 13.7 50.7 282./14.5
90 14.2 52.4 286./16.8
96 14.7 54.1 286./17.6
102 15.1 56.0 281./18.4
108 15.4 57.6 280./16.2
114 15.5 59.4 276./16.8
120 15.8 61.1 280./16.7
126 16.0 62.7 275./15.8

Big shift south. Not good for the Antilles.

[Aric Dunn]

its still very broad... but is well on its way. expect the center to tighten closer to the convection where the greatest curvature and convergence it.

[Gustywind]

Vigorous Atlantic low, Pacific hurricane
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 14, 2009 11:15 am ET
ATLANTIC

A well developed low pressure continues to get better organized in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It is located around 200 miles south-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with this low pressure, and environmental conditions remain favorable for it to become a tropical depression at any time. If this occurs, it would likely continue moving in a westward direction, but would be no threat to any land for several days.
It remains possible that this low pressure could become the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which would be Ana.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[Brent]

the center is moving closer to the convection

looks like the center will consolidate near 13N

Very interesting. Thanks for the update Derek, always nice to pro opinions on here.

[JPmia]

I have the GFS run a bit ahead of the online version. It takes the storm into the southern tip of Florida on the 23rd then due north up the western peninsula:

Wxman57, what is the strength of the storm in that model run when it strikes SFL? (like I said last night that is VERY close to THE worst case scenario for the state if it is a major and it follows that path) Reassuring to know that it is more than 200 hours out in the run.

[Scorpion]

HWRF

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[JPmia]

I told my daughter she wont have school on next thursday, and she keeps asking my why not. I told her its a surprise that I cant tell her about just yet.

If all this pans out, she will never want you to surprise her again! LOL

[Lurker]

Less organized due to shear correct?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

12z GFDL tracks into Caribbean sea

A big change from past runs.

WHXX04 KWBC 141722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 26.7 280./13.0
6 12.6 28.2 282./15.4
12 12.7 30.4 272./21.2
18 12.6 32.4 269./19.7
24 12.1 33.9 251./15.7
30 12.2 35.3 273./13.4
36 12.1 37.3 269./19.4
42 11.9 39.1 262./17.4
48 11.9 40.9 271./17.9
54 12.1 42.5 275./15.7
60 12.2 43.8 278./13.2
66 12.7 45.6 285./18.1
72 13.0 47.4 280./17.9
78 13.4 49.2 282./18.0
84 13.7 50.7 282./14.5
90 14.2 52.4 286./16.8
96 14.7 54.1 286./17.6
102 15.1 56.0 281./18.4
108 15.4 57.6 280./16.2
114 15.5 59.4 276./16.8
120 15.8 61.1 280./16.7
126 16.0 62.7 275./15.8

Big changes ... not good looks like a Dean landfall remake at Guadeloupe latitude near HUC location . Go fishing little boy!

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

GFDL...big shift south

[Gustywind]

12z GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

awfull run...

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Maintaining the high chance for this system becoming a tropical cyclone...

[mattpetre]

I know it's a long ways away still, but the GFS is really building that second ridge over the middle us by the end of the 12Z run. More chances of an Andrew-like scenario with multiple US landfalls?

[Aric Dunn]

Less organized due to shear correct?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

its for sure under some moderate easterly shear and is displacing the convection to the west which is likely the cause of this not organizing faster... if this continues a more westward track is likely..