ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[RL3AO]

There wouldn't be much left of that system after traversing the entire length of Hispaniola and Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Two things

1) its the 18Z GFS, not as much data is used. The past few 18Z GFS runs have been more left biased it seems.

2) We are talking over 144 hours out so pegging the exact track just doesn't make sense as it is going to change run after run after run.

[paintplaye]

GFS shows another NO hit:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_264l.gif

[PTrackerLA]

From what I saw last year with Gustav and Ike the wind radii really expands after encountering the Antilles. Just look how huge Ike became.

[Derek Ortt]

I am now explicitly forecasting development within 12-24 hours. see analysis forum

[rrm]

any possibility this makes it to texas?

[KWT]

There wouldn't be much left of that system after traversing the entire length of Hispaniola and Cuba.

Yep take that track and we have a lower end TS on our hands by the time it come sout with an utterly ruined inner core.
As Ike and Georges proved they tend not to be able to really power up as much as they did before even in decent conditions.

Still as others have said, thats still a long way out yet, tohugh the GFS has been very determined to smash this system into at least PR now.

[KWT]

Yep, if you look at the 18z GFS you could just as easily think you were back in 1998 watching hurricane Georges, thats run is almost a clone!

Also very interesting Derek!

[shah8]

I think it's already developed. It really looks like it only needs symmetric convection to fit the standard. After that it's basically a race to warmer waters vs random shear events. I think we take models seriously after we get a nice CDO going...

[fci]

How many times has the GFS clipped the keys and slammed NO with 90L so far lol? It's crazy!

we have been in the bulls eye so many times i prefer that 5+ days out because how many times has it worked out. How about that big bad Ike last year that was coming here.

IMO, we dodged a major bullet with Ike last year and its irregular track veering SW into Cuba. All sane logic had it coming right here as a powerful storm. Of course, much of last year defied "sane logic".

I have NO basis for this statement beyond personal opinion and experience but...... I venture to guess that about 9 out of 10 times a storm DOES NOT take the irregular course that Ike took. We can count our blessings here in South Florida on that one!

Sorry to my friends in Texas on how Ike turned out.

[shah8]

I disagree. Gustav was nailed by shear going through Cuba. Only a slightly more favorable path for Ike in the Gulf would have meant it had a real shot at ramping up--Ike was going over colder waters for much of the Gulf period.

[KWT]

Yeah I think thats the key thing everyone is waiting for, it just needs to wrap in the convection a little better. Put it this way, if this was a TD already no one would be thinking of downgrading it, at least for a while anyway IMO.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFDL...ouch

[Iune]

18z GFDL...ouch

where is 90L then?

[lonelymike]

:uarrow:

Two things

1) its the 18Z GFS, not as much data is used. The past few 18Z GFS runs have been more left biased it seems.

2) We are talking over 144 hours out so pegging the exact track just doesn't make sense as it is going to change run after run after run.

Also a lot of these models are fed with data from the GFS. So if the GFS is garbage...well you get the picture.

[KWT]

Ivanhater, what direction is it going at the moment, WNW or closer to the west?
edit---looks like its very close to the GFS actually.

[StormTracker]

Well, if this keeps up, the Atlantic will kinda look like my avatar!!!

[Brent]

18z GFDL...ouch

where is 90L then?

Near the Lesser Antilles. That island just east of the eye is Guadeloupe.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the 18z GFDL.Caribbean bound again.

WHXX04 KWBC 142321
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.5 28.9 280./14.0
6 12.5 30.0 269./11.3
12 12.5 31.8 271./17.3
18 12.3 33.7 263./18.8
24 12.2 35.7 268./20.0
30 12.1 37.4 265./16.3
36 11.8 39.1 261./16.9
42 11.8 40.8 271./16.9
48 11.8 42.4 271./15.0
54 11.8 43.8 270./14.5
60 12.1 45.2 281./13.7
66 12.8 46.8 294./16.6
72 13.4 48.7 288./19.4
78 13.8 50.3 281./16.2
84 14.3 51.8 291./15.6
90 15.0 53.6 290./18.8
96 15.6 55.4 288./18.5
102 16.0 57.3 284./18.6
108 16.2 59.1 276./17.2
114 16.5 60.9 280./17.4
120 16.8 62.5 277./15.7
126 17.0 64.2 277./16.7

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z HWRF aimed to go just above the Islands...