ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[jinftl]

An important point....the way Ana looks now may not be indicative of what happens in her future. She has already shown an ability to re-emerge from hostile conditions. Down the road, she faces less shear, less dry air, higher oceanic heat content....and possibly large landmasses like hispanola and cuba. If she can avoid the landmasses, she will be something to be concerned about for someone.

A track further south...skirting hispanola and cuba..closer to jamaica...makes this a possible storm entering the Gulf.

[CrazyC83]

It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.

[Sanibel]

So is that Ana turning towards the NHC track into south Florida?

[KWT]

Its reached the weakness in the upper high, and you can see that by the way there is convection firing way to its north down to where Ana is. thats what causing this move to a 280 degrees. This also will be important to see how much Ana lifts out as to get an idea of TD3's future.

[dixiebreeze]

It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.

Just wait until tonight. I think we'll see Ana blossom big time again. She's a bit shy in the sunshine.

[CrazyC83]

It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.

Just wait until tonight. I think we'll see Ana blossom big time again. She's a bit shy in the sunshine.

Seems that way. But for now, I think she is a TD again.

[brunota2003]

NOAA 43 and the G-IV jet are suppost to fly research missions into and around Ana today...take off slated for 20Z

[clfenwi]

15/1745 UTC 14.4N 49.2W T1.5/2.5 ANA -- Atlantic

[KWT]

Crazy, I think if it can't pull the convection closer to its center soon I'd agree but the NHC won't be quite so hasty I suspect.

I also wonder if this shear will also effect TD3, given the easterly shear also got TD3 I wouldn't be surprised if it does 2-3 days down the line if the upper synoptic patterns is sluggish to change.

[thetruesms]

It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.

Just wait until tonight. I think we'll see Ana blossom big time again. She's a bit shy in the sunshine.

Can a tropical cyclone be a vampire?

[Sanibel]

Maybe the diurnal sunshine heating causes the storm to pull more air from its surroundings which then chokes it off with Saharan Air.

This turn is the start of a Florida track confirming if the models are correct.

[brunota2003]

It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.

Just wait until tonight. I think we'll see Ana blossom big time again. She's a bit shy in the sunshine.

Can a tropical cyclone be a vampire?

As long as it is a nice vampire that eats deer...versus humans

NOAA 43 and the G-IV jet are suppose to fly research missions into and around Ana today...take off slated for 20Z (4 pm EDT) so we will see what she is like then I suppose.

[Bailey1777]

Since the last advisory she has moved .1N and .9W so not much of a Northerly component for those saying it looks to be heading WNW.

[paintplaye]

Since the last advisory she has moved .1N and .9W so not much of a Northerly component for those saying it looks to be heading WNW.

Yea that is what i thought. I think people are getting excited about the wobbles. She did go north for a second but only a second.

[KWT]

Yeah but the 280 motion has only really occured in the last 3hrs or so...and it makes sense if you look at the WV as thats about where the upper high ends its western extent.

So it probably is lifting a little now, still below 15N though, impressive given it came out around 14N.

[storms NC]

The future Of Ana is still up in the air as I see it. There is to many what if's. I have read a few post on here about going south. Where is it going south? I see it moveing West by North but if it get to 290 then it will be WNW. But don't see south at all.
Now as far as the ULL goes. Don't they pull some TS to the north some? Some go right to them and tear them up?

[KWT]

Its not moving south, I'd guess the LLC is about 280 right now as its moving around the weakness and lifting up.

[rrm]

with the models shifting more west could we possibly be looking at a texas threat down the road?

[bob rulz]

with the models shifting more west could we possibly be looking at a texas threat down the road?

It's way too early to say with any certainty. It can't be ruled out, though.

[Sanibel]

Too early to say but that present turn WNW is what you would expect to see if the Florida track NHC predicted was starting to take place.


Tropical rain here from possibly developing wave over keys.


Edit: 12z HWRF comes south with Ana, just skimming the north shore of the Antilles. (GOM bound)