ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

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jinftl
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1461 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:22 pm

An important point....the way Ana looks now may not be indicative of what happens in her future. She has already shown an ability to re-emerge from hostile conditions. Down the road, she faces less shear, less dry air, higher oceanic heat content....and possibly large landmasses like hispanola and cuba. If she can avoid the landmasses, she will be something to be concerned about for someone.

A track further south...skirting hispanola and cuba..closer to jamaica...makes this a possible storm entering the Gulf.
Last edited by jinftl on Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1462 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:23 pm

It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1463 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:29 pm

So is that Ana turning towards the NHC track into south Florida?
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#1464 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:31 pm

Its reached the weakness in the upper high, and you can see that by the way there is convection firing way to its north down to where Ana is. thats what causing this move to a 280 degrees. This also will be important to see how much Ana lifts out as to get an idea of TD3's future.
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Re:

#1465 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:43 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.


Just wait until tonight. I think we'll see Ana blossom big time again. She's a bit shy in the sunshine.
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Re: Re:

#1466 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:46 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.


Just wait until tonight. I think we'll see Ana blossom big time again. She's a bit shy in the sunshine.


Seems that way. But for now, I think she is a TD again.
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#1467 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:47 pm

NOAA 43 and the G-IV jet are suppost to fly research missions into and around Ana today...take off slated for 20Z
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1468 Postby clfenwi » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:49 pm

15/1745 UTC 14.4N 49.2W T1.5/2.5 ANA -- Atlantic
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#1469 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:50 pm

Crazy, I think if it can't pull the convection closer to its center soon I'd agree but the NHC won't be quite so hasty I suspect.

I also wonder if this shear will also effect TD3, given the easterly shear also got TD3 I wouldn't be surprised if it does 2-3 days down the line if the upper synoptic patterns is sluggish to change.
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Re: Re:

#1470 Postby thetruesms » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:50 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.


Just wait until tonight. I think we'll see Ana blossom big time again. She's a bit shy in the sunshine.
Can a tropical cyclone be a vampire?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1471 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:53 pm

Maybe the diurnal sunshine heating causes the storm to pull more air from its surroundings which then chokes it off with Saharan Air.

This turn is the start of a Florida track confirming if the models are correct.
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Re: Re:

#1472 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:53 pm

thetruesms wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It seems Ana hates afternoons, since that is the time of day she always falls apart.


Just wait until tonight. I think we'll see Ana blossom big time again. She's a bit shy in the sunshine.
Can a tropical cyclone be a vampire?

As long as it is a nice vampire that eats deer...versus humans :cheesy:

NOAA 43 and the G-IV jet are suppose to fly research missions into and around Ana today...take off slated for 20Z (4 pm EDT) so we will see what she is like then I suppose.
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#1473 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:55 pm

Since the last advisory she has moved .1N and .9W so not much of a Northerly component for those saying it looks to be heading WNW.
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Re:

#1474 Postby paintplaye » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:01 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Since the last advisory she has moved .1N and .9W so not much of a Northerly component for those saying it looks to be heading WNW.


Yea that is what i thought. I think people are getting excited about the wobbles. She did go north for a second but only a second.
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#1475 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:03 pm

Yeah but the 280 motion has only really occured in the last 3hrs or so...and it makes sense if you look at the WV as thats about where the upper high ends its western extent.

So it probably is lifting a little now, still below 15N though, impressive given it came out around 14N.
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#1476 Postby storms NC » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:07 pm

The future Of Ana is still up in the air as I see it. There is to many what if's. I have read a few post on here about going south. Where is it going south? I see it moveing West by North but if it get to 290 then it will be WNW. But don't see south at all.
Now as far as the ULL goes. Don't they pull some TS to the north some? Some go right to them and tear them up?
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#1477 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:12 pm

Its not moving south, I'd guess the LLC is about 280 right now as its moving around the weakness and lifting up.
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#1478 Postby rrm » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:18 pm

with the models shifting more west could we possibly be looking at a texas threat down the road?
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Re:

#1479 Postby bob rulz » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:24 pm

rrm wrote:with the models shifting more west could we possibly be looking at a texas threat down the road?


It's way too early to say with any certainty. It can't be ruled out, though.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1480 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:29 pm

Too early to say but that present turn WNW is what you would expect to see if the Florida track NHC predicted was starting to take place.


Tropical rain here from possibly developing wave over keys.


Edit: 12z HWRF comes south with Ana, just skimming the north shore of the Antilles. (GOM bound)
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