ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

KWT · #1961 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:04 am

Yep can see the mid level circulation heading for PR right now. Heading WNW and in its present state the mountains of DR that are coming up robably won't have any impact on it.

Going to be a wait and see job with this one.

Sanibel · #1962 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:05 am

I think we are seeing a rare case of center re-location here. The center may have torn away from the remnant swirl to the south over water and moved towards the convection burst over Puerto Rico. That would put Ana north of the islands.

storms NC · #1963 Postby **storms NC** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:08 am

She looks like she has move more north to me and is building back up. The ULL seem to be weaking JIMO. This maybe why she is going North more. She may not go into the gulf. But into S Fla.

KWT · #1964 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:08 am

Well the radar does seem to be showing a fairly decent mid level center heading towards R now around 300 degrees, so while it'll still probably hit DR it may be more of a clip then a plow right through.

Makes a difference down the line.

#1965 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:11 am

[quote="storms NC"]She looks like she has move more north to me and is building back up. The ULL seem to be weaking JIMO. This maybe why she is going North more. She may not go into the gulf. But into S Fla.

I agree , wonder if the Nhc will continue advisories with the blowup of convection

eastcoastFL · #1966 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:13 am

So if Ana can stay north of the island will she have a chance to gain strength?

#1967 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:13 am

cycloneye wrote:Here is Ana.

Good eye to those that spotted her on radar!! What's left of Ana is going to miss the DR, Luis take a couple of swings at her when she comes bye, we don't want anything sneaking up on us in SFL!!

#1968 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:14 am

eastcoastFL wrote:So if Ana can stay north of the island will she have a chance to gain strength?

That is the big question.

vacanechaser · #1969 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:17 am

looks like a center curling up on the southeast coast there... right where that bomb went off in sat images about an hour ago... she could be making a comeback...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Sanibel · #1970 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:17 am

Like I said before it would just take a slight tweak to bring Ana in a hook up the west coast of Florida. I suppose the trend is right, but the cone gets narrower as the system gets closer. The ones we have to worry about here are the Donna-type tracks that come from the Atlantic unimpeded by the Florida mainland before they get here. But Ana is already right of where they initialized it here, so south Florida should keep an eye on this just in case.

Maybe the atmospheric limitation that kept Claudette down is still in place like Fay last year?

patrickrox11 · #1971 Postby **patrickrox11** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:19 am

Ana looks like it has degenerated yesterday in my opinion. The way it is organized makes it look like a tropical wave or remnant low.

#1972 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:19 am

Don't give up on Ana to soon, she may surprise us!!

KWT · #1973 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:21 am

Without a good established LLC it may end up being the case that the models are going to get caught out, the MLC still looks decent and appears to be about to reach PR. This will be the area to follow.

#1974 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:24 am

I'm not seeing much of a circulation.

KWT · #1975 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:25 am

Its more then likely a TW, but it you had a TW that was moving towards Florida and an ULL that is starting to weaken and probably about to lift out then we'd all be watching it like a hawk.

bucman1 · #1976 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:26 am

If Ana comes off with some type of organization(MLC) what are the chances of regeneration ?

#1977 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:29 am

IF (big if) it's north of the track and misses Hispaniola

It's not out of the questions that it will be in a somewhat favorable environment.

#1978 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:29 am

KWT wrote:Without a good established LLC it may end up being the case that the models are going to get caught out, the MLC still looks decent and appears to be about to reach PR. This will be the area to follow.

You have to admit a few hours ago most of us thought for sure Ana was done, but it does appear that there is still some decent structure at the mid levels and once Ana clears PR the SST are very warm. Like you stated earlier this morning the question is what affect will that ULL have on her. The Ships have Ana as a cane near SFL.

#1979 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:32 am

IMO if there is anything close to an LLC with Ana it's to the SE of PR which is well north of the NHC track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

HELLO, IS THERE ANYBODY ELSE OUT THERE OVERREACTING WITH ME TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS WITH ANA?? :cheesy:

KWT · #1980 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:33 am

I'm really not sure Hispaniola is going to make a difference really, there is not much left at the surface anyway, its purely a mid level feature now I susect and thus the higher ground won't really disrupt that circulation much at all IMO.

As for the shear, it should slacken steadily as the ULL moves WNW and weakens, which is happening quite quickly as the front dives down.

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