x-y-no wrote:wonder why they did that ... it's not like they're anywhere near the center ...
they could have possibly seen a hook echo on radar... that's a speculation that I have, but the only people that know are the NHC forecasters and the crew.
ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re:
they could have possibly seen a hook echo on radar... that's a speculation that I have, but the only people that know are the NHC forecasters and the crew.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
It has.....went from 68.8W longitude at 5pm to 68.3W longitude at 8pm.....slight ne component is now taking place (but overall movement is n)
kat61 wrote:wow! so quiet out here! anyone know when the turn NNE is supposed to happen? Bill seems to
moving pretty quickly.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Advisories)
WOCN31 CWHX 230000
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Saturday
22 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT
...Large hurricane Bill to impact Nova Scotia and portions of pei...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 37.8 N
And longitude 68.3 W... About 376 nautical miles or 696 km south
southwest of Yarmouth Nova Scotia. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 75 knots... 139 km/h... And central pressure at 961
MB. Bill is moving north northeast at 20 knots... 37 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 22 9.00 PM 37.8N 68.3W 961 75 139
Aug 23 3.00 AM 40.0N 67.5W 965 75 139
Aug 23 9.00 AM 42.2N 65.4W 965 75 139
Aug 23 3.00 PM 44.2N 62.8W 970 70 130
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 980 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 47.8N 54.9W 985 60 111 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 990 50 93 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.5N 37.6W 995 45 83 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Atlantic coastal Nova
Scotia with wind speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.
Hurricane watches are continued for eastern mainland Nova Scotia
And Southern Cape Breton with potential wind speeds of 120 km/h
With gusts to 140.
Tropical storm watches remain in effect for the remainder of nova
Scotia.. Eastern Prince Edward Island and the southern half of
Newfoundland with potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100.
Storm impacts:
Rainfall...
On Sunday the centre of hurricane Bill is expected to pass just south
of Nova Scotia giving rainfall amounts of 75 to 100 mm over nova
Scotia..Pei and Newfoundland except for Nova Scotia where local
Amounts up to 150 mm are possible. As a result.. Local flooding
Can be expected in flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce
visibilities and lead to standing water presenting a hazard to
motorists. Heavy rainfall has the potential to cause street
Flooding..Road washouts and flooded basements.
Winds...
With strong east to northeasterly winds over Nova Scotia we are
likely to see some tree branches breaking and possible downed
Utility lines. Please stay tuned in the event that the storm
Behavior changes where the wind threat could increase.
Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge (of 0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy
Surf along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and Southern
Newfoundland (from large waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres)
Is expected. These conditions may lead to shoreline erosion
And damage to docks as well as generate dangerous rip currents
At local beaches. It is worthy to note that spring tides are
Occurring over the weekend..Increasing the threat of
Coastal flooding.
Spectators are advised to keep a safe distance from the shoreline
Due to the rapid approach of large waves.
Further details are available in the public forecast bulletins.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect near and south of
The hurricane track with wind speeds in the range of 65 to 75 knots.
Storm warnings are in effect for areas just north of the track.
Large waves generated by Bill over offshore waters will range from
10 to 14 metres south of the track. Further details are available in
the local sea state forecasts.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Satellite pictures indicate that the highest winds in Bill have
Decreased.. But the overall cloud pattern remains very impressive.
According to the national hurricane centre assessment.. The
Intensity is 75 knots or 140 kmh.
The favourable factors driving Bill indicate that it will
Maintain its intensity this evening but a gradual weakening is
anticipated on Sunday. The track is maintained close to the national
hurricane centre track as well as its intensity.
B. Prognostic
Hurricane Bill will maintain its intensity for the next
12 hours then weaken gradually as it moves northeastward
Over colder water on Sunday. We continue to follow
The nhc track which is consistent with the previous tracks.
Our confidence in the track and intensity is enhanced by
The numerical models consistent track and intensity as well.
We expect extra tropical transition to be delayed until Sunday
Night given that the hurricane will remain embedded in the ambient
tropical airmass that has been present over Eastern Canada for
several days. This implies that Bill will retain tropical
characteristics longer than usual. It is also worthy of note that
Bill has a large circulation based on quikscat imagery.
C. Public weather associated
The anticipated tropical nature of Bill and its delayed transition
To post tropical will likely dictate a close-to-track rainfall
maximum over Nova Scotia.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/06Z 245 230 140 175 100 105 65 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 220 235 160 160 95 110 75 65 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 0
24/06Z 210 240 180 160 95 95 55 50 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 210 245 180 160 50 35 20 20 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End roussel/fogarty/bowyer/campbell/borgel
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Saturday
22 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT
...Large hurricane Bill to impact Nova Scotia and portions of pei...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 37.8 N
And longitude 68.3 W... About 376 nautical miles or 696 km south
southwest of Yarmouth Nova Scotia. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 75 knots... 139 km/h... And central pressure at 961
MB. Bill is moving north northeast at 20 knots... 37 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 22 9.00 PM 37.8N 68.3W 961 75 139
Aug 23 3.00 AM 40.0N 67.5W 965 75 139
Aug 23 9.00 AM 42.2N 65.4W 965 75 139
Aug 23 3.00 PM 44.2N 62.8W 970 70 130
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 980 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 47.8N 54.9W 985 60 111 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 990 50 93 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.5N 37.6W 995 45 83 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Atlantic coastal Nova
Scotia with wind speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.
Hurricane watches are continued for eastern mainland Nova Scotia
And Southern Cape Breton with potential wind speeds of 120 km/h
With gusts to 140.
Tropical storm watches remain in effect for the remainder of nova
Scotia.. Eastern Prince Edward Island and the southern half of
Newfoundland with potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100.
Storm impacts:
Rainfall...
On Sunday the centre of hurricane Bill is expected to pass just south
of Nova Scotia giving rainfall amounts of 75 to 100 mm over nova
Scotia..Pei and Newfoundland except for Nova Scotia where local
Amounts up to 150 mm are possible. As a result.. Local flooding
Can be expected in flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce
visibilities and lead to standing water presenting a hazard to
motorists. Heavy rainfall has the potential to cause street
Flooding..Road washouts and flooded basements.
Winds...
With strong east to northeasterly winds over Nova Scotia we are
likely to see some tree branches breaking and possible downed
Utility lines. Please stay tuned in the event that the storm
Behavior changes where the wind threat could increase.
Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge (of 0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy
Surf along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and Southern
Newfoundland (from large waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres)
Is expected. These conditions may lead to shoreline erosion
And damage to docks as well as generate dangerous rip currents
At local beaches. It is worthy to note that spring tides are
Occurring over the weekend..Increasing the threat of
Coastal flooding.
Spectators are advised to keep a safe distance from the shoreline
Due to the rapid approach of large waves.
Further details are available in the public forecast bulletins.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect near and south of
The hurricane track with wind speeds in the range of 65 to 75 knots.
Storm warnings are in effect for areas just north of the track.
Large waves generated by Bill over offshore waters will range from
10 to 14 metres south of the track. Further details are available in
the local sea state forecasts.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Satellite pictures indicate that the highest winds in Bill have
Decreased.. But the overall cloud pattern remains very impressive.
According to the national hurricane centre assessment.. The
Intensity is 75 knots or 140 kmh.
The favourable factors driving Bill indicate that it will
Maintain its intensity this evening but a gradual weakening is
anticipated on Sunday. The track is maintained close to the national
hurricane centre track as well as its intensity.
B. Prognostic
Hurricane Bill will maintain its intensity for the next
12 hours then weaken gradually as it moves northeastward
Over colder water on Sunday. We continue to follow
The nhc track which is consistent with the previous tracks.
Our confidence in the track and intensity is enhanced by
The numerical models consistent track and intensity as well.
We expect extra tropical transition to be delayed until Sunday
Night given that the hurricane will remain embedded in the ambient
tropical airmass that has been present over Eastern Canada for
several days. This implies that Bill will retain tropical
characteristics longer than usual. It is also worthy of note that
Bill has a large circulation based on quikscat imagery.
C. Public weather associated
The anticipated tropical nature of Bill and its delayed transition
To post tropical will likely dictate a close-to-track rainfall
maximum over Nova Scotia.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/06Z 245 230 140 175 100 105 65 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 220 235 160 160 95 110 75 65 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 0
24/06Z 210 240 180 160 95 95 55 50 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 210 245 180 160 50 35 20 20 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End roussel/fogarty/bowyer/campbell/borgel
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MGC
- S2K Supporter
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
Bill clearly looks to be moving NNE this evening. Continued weakening is in the cards for Bill. Just talked with my middle son who was out surfing today in Va Beach. He said there 8-10 foot waves......MGC
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Advisories)
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OUTER RAINBANDS
APPROACHING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 435 MILES...
705 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE
BILL WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...BE
NEAR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY...AND BE NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 44008...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
29 MPH...49 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...WITH AROUND 1 INCH
EXPECTED OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS
FROM BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...39.1N 67.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
KNHC 230241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
AFTER DIMINISHING FOR A TIME...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RECENT INCREASE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF BILL. WHILE THE EYE IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AT LEAST A
PARTIAL EYEWALL NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON FINAL CI-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING BILL LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
LOCATION...STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF BILL.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BILL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING JUST EAST
OF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/22. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE OF
BILL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...
SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST
LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE POST-TROPICAL BILL APPROACHES THE BRITISH
ISLES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BILL WILL SOON BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
AND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BILL WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE TRANSITION PROCESS BY EARLY
MONDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND
THAT TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST...
ALONG WITH A LARGE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND RADII...AS BILL
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR
MORE DETAILS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 39.1N 67.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 42.3N 65.7W 70 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 46.3N 59.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 49.3N 49.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0000Z 53.0N 16.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0000Z 60.0N 6.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0000Z 64.0N 4.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTNT33 KNHC 230239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OUTER RAINBANDS
APPROACHING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 435 MILES...
705 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE
BILL WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...BE
NEAR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY...AND BE NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 44008...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
29 MPH...49 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...WITH AROUND 1 INCH
EXPECTED OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS
FROM BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...39.1N 67.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
KNHC 230241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
AFTER DIMINISHING FOR A TIME...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RECENT INCREASE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF BILL. WHILE THE EYE IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AT LEAST A
PARTIAL EYEWALL NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON FINAL CI-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING BILL LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
LOCATION...STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF BILL.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BILL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING JUST EAST
OF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/22. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE OF
BILL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...
SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST
LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE POST-TROPICAL BILL APPROACHES THE BRITISH
ISLES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BILL WILL SOON BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
AND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BILL WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE TRANSITION PROCESS BY EARLY
MONDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND
THAT TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST...
ALONG WITH A LARGE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND RADII...AS BILL
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR
MORE DETAILS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 39.1N 67.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 42.3N 65.7W 70 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 46.3N 59.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 49.3N 49.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0000Z 53.0N 16.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0000Z 60.0N 6.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0000Z 64.0N 4.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
At 8pm there were still 85mph winds. NHC has little info on narrative. It's like Bill just disappeard.......or does it turnover to EC info?????newbie questions???
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
11pm advisory, forecast, discussion, maps, tables now available....this is a large system in size....NHC gives Halifax a 96% chance of at least sustained winds of 39 mph....easy to see why
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 44008...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
29 MPH...49 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Readings from Cisco Beach on Nantucket....wind gusts approaching ts force.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 44008...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
29 MPH...49 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Readings from Cisco Beach on Nantucket....wind gusts approaching ts force.
kat61 wrote:At 8pm there were still 85mph winds. NHC has little info on narrative. It's like Bill just disappeard.......or does it turnover to EC info?????newbie questions???
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
jinftl wrote:11pm advisory, forecast, discussion, maps, tables now available....this is a large system in size....NHC gives Halifax a 96% chance of at least sustained winds of 39 mph....easy to see why
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 44008...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
29 MPH...49 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Readings from Cisco Beach on Nantucket....wind gusts approaching ts force.kat61 wrote:At 8pm there were still 85mph winds. NHC has little info on narrative. It's like Bill just disappeard.......or does it turnover to EC info?????newbie questions???
Thanks so much!
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Advisories)
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE BILL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1118 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL NOW MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS AND THE ADJACENT MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET. BILL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 85 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE BILL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO NANTUCKET AND CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT. BILL SHOULD PASS 150 TO 175 MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET.
THE WIND THREAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE SECONDARY TO THE THREAT OF HIGH
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND ARE ALSO PRESENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 3 AM EDT.
ANZ231>234-254-255-240330-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
1118 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM...SEVERAL RAIN BANDS WERE MOVING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE RAIN BANDS OVERNIGHT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS
THAN OR EQUAL TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL
WATERS.
...WINDS...
AT 11 PM...NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED 54 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS.
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE BILL APPROACHES...
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
...MARINE...
AT 11 PM...NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED 54 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...REPORTED 25 FOOT SEAS. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
BILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 20 FEET
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.
$$
MAZ022>024-240330-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
1118 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM...SEVERAL RAIN BANDS WERE MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. THESE WERE ROTATING WESTWARD. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE RAIN BANDS OVERNIGHT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN
OR EQUAL TO 40 PERCENT.
...WINDS...
AS OF 11 PM...NANTUCKET AIRPORT REPORTED A GUST TO 28 MPH. A SKYWARN
SPOTTER REPORTED A GUST TO 35 MPH ON CISCO BEACH ON NANTUCKET. NANTUCKET
SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED 54 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...REPORTED
A GUST TO 37 KNOTS /43 MPH/ AT 10 PM.
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
DAMAGE.
HOWEVER...IF HURRICANE BILL SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST WINDS MAY NOT
REACH THESE VALUES ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE UP TO 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EAST COASTS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WHILE NO COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED WITH BILL...SPLASHOVER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
...RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ON OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH SUNDAY. LARGE BREAKERS WILL MAKE STANDING NEAR THE OCEAN ON
ROCKS...JETTIES OR LOW PIERS VERY DANGEROUS. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES REGARDING SWIMMING RESTRICTIONS AND BEACH
CLOSURES.
$$
JWD/GAF
HURRICANE BILL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1118 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL NOW MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS AND THE ADJACENT MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET. BILL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 85 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE BILL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO NANTUCKET AND CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT. BILL SHOULD PASS 150 TO 175 MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET.
THE WIND THREAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE SECONDARY TO THE THREAT OF HIGH
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND ARE ALSO PRESENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 3 AM EDT.
ANZ231>234-254-255-240330-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
1118 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM...SEVERAL RAIN BANDS WERE MOVING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE RAIN BANDS OVERNIGHT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS
THAN OR EQUAL TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL
WATERS.
...WINDS...
AT 11 PM...NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED 54 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS.
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE BILL APPROACHES...
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
...MARINE...
AT 11 PM...NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED 54 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...REPORTED 25 FOOT SEAS. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
BILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 20 FEET
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.
$$
MAZ022>024-240330-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
1118 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM...SEVERAL RAIN BANDS WERE MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. THESE WERE ROTATING WESTWARD. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE RAIN BANDS OVERNIGHT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN
OR EQUAL TO 40 PERCENT.
...WINDS...
AS OF 11 PM...NANTUCKET AIRPORT REPORTED A GUST TO 28 MPH. A SKYWARN
SPOTTER REPORTED A GUST TO 35 MPH ON CISCO BEACH ON NANTUCKET. NANTUCKET
SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED 54 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...REPORTED
A GUST TO 37 KNOTS /43 MPH/ AT 10 PM.
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
DAMAGE.
HOWEVER...IF HURRICANE BILL SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST WINDS MAY NOT
REACH THESE VALUES ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE UP TO 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EAST COASTS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WHILE NO COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED WITH BILL...SPLASHOVER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
...RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ON OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH SUNDAY. LARGE BREAKERS WILL MAKE STANDING NEAR THE OCEAN ON
ROCKS...JETTIES OR LOW PIERS VERY DANGEROUS. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES REGARDING SWIMMING RESTRICTIONS AND BEACH
CLOSURES.
$$
JWD/GAF
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-
SaskatchewanScreamer
Will be interesting to see how accurate the below is........
Storm Watch Information
Hurricane Bill has weakened to a strong Category 1 storm after passing Bermuda Friday night. Some fluctuation in strength could occur over the next 24 hours but Bill is expected to weaken as it moves into cooler waters.
Hurricane Bill could still be a significant storm, even stay a Category 1 hurricane, when it passes or makes landfall in the Maritimes late Sunday.
The current storm track has Bill brushing the coast of Nova Scotia near Halifax late Sunday evening and hitting Newfoundland Monday morning.
The Maritimes
Rain is forecast to begin in Nova Scotia early Sunday morning. Storm surge along the eastern coast of Nova Scotia from Halifax to Sydney could raise ocean levels by 3-4 m at the height of the storm. Rainfall amounts could reach 140 mm locally in the hardest hit areas in Nova Scotia and PEI. Flooding will be a serious concern. Less affected areas of New Brunswick and western PEI could see up 50 mm of rain.
Wind is another serious concern with gusts expected between 110-130 km/h in the hardest hit areas from Yarmouth to Sydney along the coast. Hurricane force winds could cause significant damage and power outages are likely.
Newfoundland
Hurricane Bill may no longer be officially a hurricane when it makes landfall near St. John's early Monday morning but it will be a significant tropical storm packing winds gusts up to 130 km/h. Rain amounts could be up to 100 mm locally before the storm moves out into the Atlantic.
Residents of Atlantic Canada, in particular Nova Scotia, PEI, eastern New Brunswick and all of Newfoundland should be prepared for a potential weather emergency. These preparations should include an Emergency Kit with enough food and water for 72 hours at least. Do not wait to prepare yourself.
Be sure to stay tuned to The Weather Network where we will be covering Hurricane Bill extensively including live coverage from the Maritimes as well as interviews with staff from the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halfiax. Hurricane Bill's storm track could change so check regularly to find out how this storm will affect you.
Current Hurricane Bill Statistics
Hurricane Bill is currently a strong Category 1 storm located 415 km south or Nantucket, MA and about 880 km south-southwest of Halifax. The storm has increased its forward speed and is traveling north at about 39 km/h. This motion is expected to continue today until Bill gradually begins to turn north-northeast on Sunday.
Bill's wind speeds have slowed slightly with max. sustained winds measuring 140 km/h. The storm's impact is still significant with hurricane force winds extending 140 km from the centre of the storm, and tropical storm force winds extending 445 km from centre.
Hurricane Bill will probably lose hurricane status either before or shortly after making landfall in Newfoundland on Monday. The remnants of the storm will move across the Atlantic to impact the north of England Wednesday.
Tropical Storm, Rainfall and Hurricane Watches and Warnings are in effect across Atlantic Canada.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/s ... watch_home
Storm Watch Information
Hurricane Bill has weakened to a strong Category 1 storm after passing Bermuda Friday night. Some fluctuation in strength could occur over the next 24 hours but Bill is expected to weaken as it moves into cooler waters.
Hurricane Bill could still be a significant storm, even stay a Category 1 hurricane, when it passes or makes landfall in the Maritimes late Sunday.
The current storm track has Bill brushing the coast of Nova Scotia near Halifax late Sunday evening and hitting Newfoundland Monday morning.
The Maritimes
Rain is forecast to begin in Nova Scotia early Sunday morning. Storm surge along the eastern coast of Nova Scotia from Halifax to Sydney could raise ocean levels by 3-4 m at the height of the storm. Rainfall amounts could reach 140 mm locally in the hardest hit areas in Nova Scotia and PEI. Flooding will be a serious concern. Less affected areas of New Brunswick and western PEI could see up 50 mm of rain.
Wind is another serious concern with gusts expected between 110-130 km/h in the hardest hit areas from Yarmouth to Sydney along the coast. Hurricane force winds could cause significant damage and power outages are likely.
Newfoundland
Hurricane Bill may no longer be officially a hurricane when it makes landfall near St. John's early Monday morning but it will be a significant tropical storm packing winds gusts up to 130 km/h. Rain amounts could be up to 100 mm locally before the storm moves out into the Atlantic.
Residents of Atlantic Canada, in particular Nova Scotia, PEI, eastern New Brunswick and all of Newfoundland should be prepared for a potential weather emergency. These preparations should include an Emergency Kit with enough food and water for 72 hours at least. Do not wait to prepare yourself.
Be sure to stay tuned to The Weather Network where we will be covering Hurricane Bill extensively including live coverage from the Maritimes as well as interviews with staff from the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halfiax. Hurricane Bill's storm track could change so check regularly to find out how this storm will affect you.
Current Hurricane Bill Statistics
Hurricane Bill is currently a strong Category 1 storm located 415 km south or Nantucket, MA and about 880 km south-southwest of Halifax. The storm has increased its forward speed and is traveling north at about 39 km/h. This motion is expected to continue today until Bill gradually begins to turn north-northeast on Sunday.
Bill's wind speeds have slowed slightly with max. sustained winds measuring 140 km/h. The storm's impact is still significant with hurricane force winds extending 140 km from the centre of the storm, and tropical storm force winds extending 445 km from centre.
Hurricane Bill will probably lose hurricane status either before or shortly after making landfall in Newfoundland on Monday. The remnants of the storm will move across the Atlantic to impact the north of England Wednesday.
Tropical Storm, Rainfall and Hurricane Watches and Warnings are in effect across Atlantic Canada.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/s ... watch_home
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
kat61 wrote:I thought the cooler SST's would break him down more.
Bill is now experiencing the force of the trough, which not only accelerates the storm northeastward but also allows the hurricane to intensify as if it were a non-tropical cyclone. This is why we have seen an increase in the intensity of the convection. Still, Bill is unlikely to increase in intensity, at least significantly.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Just came in:
041
URNT15 KNHC 230534
AF306 1303A BILL HDOB 15 20090823
052400 3942N 06743W 6964 02845 9675 +123 +046 324044 045 040 006 00
052430 3943N 06741W 6970 02833 9666 +124 +044 325040 042 037 008 00
052500 3945N 06740W 6967 02829 9660 +124 +043 321032 034 038 009 00
052530 3946N 06738W 6966 02822 9660 +119 +042 318029 031 038 009 00
052600 3947N 06736W 6969 02820 9653 +122 +042 319023 023 035 008 00
052630 3948N 06734W 6965 02819 9638 +133 +042 321020 021 030 006 00
052700 3949N 06733W 6969 02812 9625 +144 +044 318017 018 027 005 03
052730 3951N 06731W 6967 02811 9619 +144 +048 327013 014 025 005 03
052800 3952N 06729W 6966 02811 9615 +145 +052 322007 010 022 005 03
052830 3953N 06727W 6971 02799 9615 +142 +056 341004 005 023 003 03
052900 3954N 06726W 6969 02801 9608 +146 +058 027003 004 023 004 00
052930 3955N 06724W 6965 02806 9606 +146 +060 113004 006 021 004 03
053000 3956N 06722W 6969 02797 9602 +150 +062 106007 008 021 004 00
053030 3957N 06721W 6966 02803 9596 +154 +062 119011 012 024 004 00
053100 3959N 06719W 6967 02802 9596 +155 +064 124016 018 030 005 00
053130 4000N 06717W 6966 02805 9602 +149 +064 127023 026 035 005 00
053200 4001N 06716W 6966 02806 9607 +147 +064 132029 031 038 005 00
053230 4003N 06714W 6967 02806 9612 +145 +064 132032 034 041 005 00
053300 4004N 06712W 6967 02812 9618 +142 +064 134036 037 043 006 00
053330 4005N 06711W 6969 02812 9628 +138 +064 138038 039 047 004 00
$$
;
041
URNT15 KNHC 230534
AF306 1303A BILL HDOB 15 20090823
052400 3942N 06743W 6964 02845 9675 +123 +046 324044 045 040 006 00
052430 3943N 06741W 6970 02833 9666 +124 +044 325040 042 037 008 00
052500 3945N 06740W 6967 02829 9660 +124 +043 321032 034 038 009 00
052530 3946N 06738W 6966 02822 9660 +119 +042 318029 031 038 009 00
052600 3947N 06736W 6969 02820 9653 +122 +042 319023 023 035 008 00
052630 3948N 06734W 6965 02819 9638 +133 +042 321020 021 030 006 00
052700 3949N 06733W 6969 02812 9625 +144 +044 318017 018 027 005 03
052730 3951N 06731W 6967 02811 9619 +144 +048 327013 014 025 005 03
052800 3952N 06729W 6966 02811 9615 +145 +052 322007 010 022 005 03
052830 3953N 06727W 6971 02799 9615 +142 +056 341004 005 023 003 03
052900 3954N 06726W 6969 02801 9608 +146 +058 027003 004 023 004 00
052930 3955N 06724W 6965 02806 9606 +146 +060 113004 006 021 004 03
053000 3956N 06722W 6969 02797 9602 +150 +062 106007 008 021 004 00
053030 3957N 06721W 6966 02803 9596 +154 +062 119011 012 024 004 00
053100 3959N 06719W 6967 02802 9596 +155 +064 124016 018 030 005 00
053130 4000N 06717W 6966 02805 9602 +149 +064 127023 026 035 005 00
053200 4001N 06716W 6966 02806 9607 +147 +064 132029 031 038 005 00
053230 4003N 06714W 6967 02806 9612 +145 +064 132032 034 041 005 00
053300 4004N 06712W 6967 02812 9618 +142 +064 134036 037 043 006 00
053330 4005N 06711W 6969 02812 9628 +138 +064 138038 039 047 004 00
$$
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