Strong tropical wave ssw of Cape Verde islands

[fci]

If this develops near the CV Islands, then I think it will recurve very early.
Rarely do we see a system that develops real early make it across.
Sometimes, if it develops near the islands it curves right past the islands.
I can't recall the names in the past that did this, but I think that it has happened more often than not

[Ivanhater]

If this develops near the CV Islands, then I think it will recurve very early.
Rarely do we see a system that develops real early make it across.
Sometimes, if it develops near the islands it curves right past the islands.
I can't recall the names in the past that did this, but I think that it has happened more often than not

It is better to look at the current synopsis than to look at past storms..the models are showing ridging developing across the entire Atlantic at the time this is moving west..I'm not seeing anything to show this being a recurver, at least according to the models now.

Seems the models are showing the strongest ridging without any weakness of the season.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea and models aren't doing much with this system either.

[Blown Away]

Long-term Synopsis for Wed Aug 26th

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 09 2009

DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION.

Yeah, the timing of this wave and the ridging off the SE speaks volumes to me.

[Ivanhater]

In fact, the models that do develop this, like the CMC and UKMET, all show the ridge building in nicely, as well as the Euro

[cycloneye]

I bring only one example of one system (Hurricane Hugo) that developed near the Cape Verde Islands and made it across the Atlantic.It was a heck strong subtropical ridge at that time that made Hugo make it across.Is all about timing in terms of having a fairly strong ridge as a system moves across the Atlantic.But this year the highs haved not been particulary strong due to the negative NAO (Northern Atlantic Occilation)

[otowntiger]

I bring only one example of one system (Hurricane Hugo) that developed near the Cape Verde Islands and made it across the Atlantic.It was a heck strong subtropical ridge at that time that made Hugo make it across.Is all about timing in terms of having a fairly strong ridge as a system moves across the Atlantic.But this year the highs haved not been particulary strong due to the negative NAO (Northern Atlantic Occilation)

Thats a good point there Cycloneye. Hugo did develop in this same general area, except it doesn't look like he got too strong until more toward the middle Atlantic. Off topic a little, I was looking at some weather video the other day and saw some amazing footage of hurricane Hugo slamming mercilessly into Puerto Rico. I had forgotton how bad you guys got hit there. It seems all the focus is always on South Carolina.

[Wx_Warrior]

I put 0 ZERO emphasis on CMC....I looked at lastest EURO. Nothing serious there.

[Ivanhater]

I put 0 ZERO emphasis on CMC....I looked at lastest EURO. Nothing serious there.

Except for the fact that the usually conservative UKMET develops this as well, and your favorite Euro has been touch and go with this system, yesterday's Euro showing quite a strong system, today a tropical storm...but ALL the models showing a strong ridge building, not weakening while the system moves west...

Yesterday's Euro...



UKMET




Strong looking ridge

[Blown Away]

I put 0 ZERO emphasis on CMC....I looked at lastest EURO. Nothing serious there.

Just look at the satellite and you can see a nice big wave that has maintained convection after leaving Africa. The NHC is taking notice. I like the models but don't always put all the eggs in that basket

[Wx_Warrior]

Why reference yesterdays?

Look at the newest EURO.

Another personal aspect is I put no stock in the UKMET either.

[Ivanhater]

Why reference yesterdays?

Look at the newest.

Because it has been off and on, yesterday showing a hurricane, this morning nothing, this afternoon a tropical storm, it has not been consistent except for the upper air pattern showing a building ridge, that's the most important thing...

[Wx_Warrior]

Tit for tat. I say potato, you say potatoe.

[fci]

If this develops near the CV Islands, then I think it will recurve very early.
Rarely do we see a system that develops real early make it across.
Sometimes, if it develops near the islands it curves right past the islands.
I can't recall the names in the past that did this, but I think that it has happened more often than not

It is better to look at the current synopsis than to look at past storms..the models are showing ridging developing across the entire Atlantic at the time this is moving west..I'm not seeing anything to show this being a recurver, at least according to the models now.

Seems the models are showing the strongest ridging without any weakness of the season.

Say what you want about not looking at past storms but I looked at the past 10 years and ALL storms that were named EAST of 30 curved out to sea and were fish.

Pretty compelling, if you ask me.
If current synopsis were your only guide you would be wrong much of the time given the length of time we are talking about a storm that develops by the CV Islands and the fact that we are wrong a lot of the time in predicting systems.
So, I rely heavily on history and it guides me quite well, particularly when we are surmising what a system will do many days out. Sure, current synopsis is the way to go for short to mid-term prognosticating but I will take history in longer term "guessing" and certainly the evidence is compelling for storms that develop by the CV Islands to recurve and recurve early.
Look it up. You will likely have to go WAY back to find a storm that developed east of 30 (by the CV Islands) that made it across.

[cycloneye]

Ok after that,all is peace and love Lets focus on this developing system.

[KWT]

The high is stronger then recently at least in the middle of the Atlantic once we reach 72-96hrs so this may keep a W/WNW type track for longer but eventually we will see another weakness form and it will no doubt lift this one out.

Of course you can get the Hugo type hurricanes that manage to make it the whole way across but there look to be still too many weakness at upper levels coming about too often to allow that to happen.

[Aric Dunn]

holy system first time i got a chance to look at it in detail..

thats very impressive.. actually a little more impressive then Bill looked...

[cycloneye]

This image updates every 15 minutes.It keeps organizing.



Code Orange at 8 PM?

[Bocadude85]

If this develops near the CV Islands, then I think it will recurve very early.
Rarely do we see a system that develops real early make it across.
Sometimes, if it develops near the islands it curves right past the islands.
I can't recall the names in the past that did this, but I think that it has happened more often than not

It is better to look at the current synopsis than to look at past storms..the models are showing ridging developing across the entire Atlantic at the time this is moving west..I'm not seeing anything to show this being a recurver, at least according to the models now.

Seems the models are showing the strongest ridging without any weakness of the season.

Say what you want about not looking at past storms but I looked at the past 10 years and ALL storms that were named EAST of 30 curved out to sea and were fish.

Pretty compelling, if you ask me.
If current synopsis were your only guide you would be wrong much of the time given the length of time we are talking about a storm that develops by the CV Islands and the fact that we are wrong a lot of the time in predicting systems.
So, I rely heavily on history and it guides me quite well, particularly when we are surmising what a system will do many days out. Sure, current synopsis is the way to go for short to mid-term prognosticating but I will take history in longer term "guessing" and certainly the evidence is compelling for storms that develop by the CV Islands to recurve and recurve early.
Look it up. You will likely have to go WAY back to find a storm that developed east of 30 (by the CV Islands) that made it across.

Here are a few storms that formed nears the CV islands and made it across

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/27/1947_Fort_Lauderdale_hurricane_track.png/800px-1947_Fort_Lauderdale_hurricane_track.png
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/Ike_2008_track.png/800px-Ike_2008_track.png
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5d/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane_track.png/800px-1928_Okeechobee_hurricane_track.png

And these other storms below show what a strong ridge is capable of
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/af/Andrew_1992_track.png/800px-Andrew_1992_track.png
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/56/Jeanne_2004_track.png/800px-Jeanne_2004_track.png

[Aric Dunn]

possibly orange.. yeah ..