
and seems to be WNW to W movement at a pretty good speed.
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gatorcane wrote::uarrow: I can't imagine with it so south and with that center fix Wxman now below 12N...how it will gain so much lattitude to be a shoe-in recurve.
and seems to be WNW to W movement at a pretty good speed.
wxman57 wrote:gatorcane wrote::uarrow: I can't imagine with it so south and with that center fix Wxman now below 12N...how it will gain so much lattitude to be a shoe-in recurve.
and seems to be WNW to W movement at a pretty good speed.
That's why we told our clients in the NE Caribbean from PR eastward to prepare for possible hurricane hit late this week.
jconsor wrote:I'm not as confident as wxman57 or Derek on a recurve east of 70W. The GFS and Canadian have had a significant bias to lower heights too much over the western Atlantic days 4-6.
The general run-to-run trend of the ECMWF has been toward a stronger W. Atlantic ridge Fri through next weekend. The latest NCEP discussion mentions the retrogression that is expected during that time period:
THE WEAKNESS OVER THE EAST WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL FEATURE STARTING
OFF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WHICH GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THIS TIME...
A SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE EDGE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE. WHAT WILL RESULT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD
SHOULD BE RIDGING TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS.
Derek Ortt wrote:however, how far north will this system be once the ridge builds back in? I could see it at 28N then, and that is far enough to send this out to sea
KWT wrote:Latest image really does show this system weakening again, wonder what is causing this weakening?
Also if this doesn't develop then it seems quite likely this one won't be getting as far north as some models are showing and if thats the case then it may well not recurve at all, though I think thats not the most likely outcome.
Wxman57, yeah best to be safe with this sort of system, esp if it takes longer to get going then we may have thought.
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