ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[gatorcane]

I can't imagine with it so south and with that center fix Wxman now below 12N...how it will gain so much lattitude to be a shoe-in recurve.

and seems to be WNW to W movement at a pretty good speed.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[KWT]

Yeah convection is decreasing again in strength, doesn't look quite as good as it did previously...and if it doesn't strengthen then its just going to get further west until even if the lower levels turn more to the WNW/NW eventually.

[jconsor]

I'm not as confident as wxman57 or Derek on a recurve east of 70W. The GFS and Canadian have had a significant bias to lower heights too much over the western Atlantic days 4-6.

The general run-to-run trend of the ECMWF has been toward a stronger W. Atlantic ridge Fri through next weekend. The latest NCEP discussion mentions the retrogression that is expected during that time period:

THE WEAKNESS OVER THE EAST WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL FEATURE STARTING
OFF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WHICH GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THIS TIME...
A SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE EDGE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE. WHAT WILL RESULT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD
SHOULD BE RIDGING TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: I can't imagine with it so south and with that center fix Wxman now below 12N...how it will gain so much lattitude to be a shoe-in recurve.

and seems to be WNW to W movement at a pretty good speed.

That's why we told our clients in the NE Caribbean from PR eastward to prepare for possible hurricane hit late this week.

[KWT]

Latest image really does show this system weakening again, wonder what is causing this weakening?

Also if this doesn't develop then it seems quite likely this one won't be getting as far north as some models are showing and if thats the case then it may well not recurve at all, though I think thats not the most likely outcome.

Wxman57, yeah best to be safe with this sort of system, esp if it takes longer to get going then we may have thought.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: I can't imagine with it so south and with that center fix Wxman now below 12N...how it will gain so much lattitude to be a shoe-in recurve.

and seems to be WNW to W movement at a pretty good speed.

That's why we told our clients in the NE Caribbean from PR eastward to prepare for possible hurricane hit late this week.

Sounds about right, thanks. Luis looks like you are up to bat again.

[hurricanetrack]

Good, let it stay weak for a day longer. I will leave it at that.

[Gustywind]

From stormcarib.com yesterday afternoon
29 Aug 2009 21:17:54 -0000 - More invest 94L


Good afternoon,

Invest 94L didn't ramp up as fast as previously forecast, probably due to slightly lower SST's as was mentioned by some of our volunteer hurricane correspondents earlier. However, that's about to change and we could still see some explosive growth by Tuesday. Protective saharan dust is pretty much a non-entity, SST's will be above 28 degrees Celsius, wind shear is around 12 knots, and the environment is decently moist.

Historically, computer models don't do a good job at all when it comes to a non-organized system so some have Invest 94L going west then NW entering the northern Caribbean south of Guadeluope as a Cat 2 hurricane in 5 days while the others push it north missing on the same track as Hurricane Bill. Personally, Bill turned a bit later than I wanted him too but that is my opinion. Once again, the longer this thing stays disorganized, the better chance it has of hitting any of our islands. I am not going to say anything about it's potential track until depression status is reached which shouldn't be too much past early Monday morning.

At it's present latitude, which by the way dropped to 10.6 N from an earlier 11.1 N, and longitude, 42.0 W, and relatively high pressure at 1010 mb, it doesn't seem to pose much of a threat. As a matter of fact, I've noticed plenty of complacency lately. Not good. While we shouldn't be alarmed, we should still be vigilant. This system is a threat. Just a matter of time before it figures out who.

Dave

[hurricanetrack]

Good, let it stay weak for a day longer. I will leave it at that.

[cycloneye]

I'm not as confident as wxman57 or Derek on a recurve east of 70W. The GFS and Canadian have had a significant bias to lower heights too much over the western Atlantic days 4-6.

The general run-to-run trend of the ECMWF has been toward a stronger W. Atlantic ridge Fri through next weekend. The latest NCEP discussion mentions the retrogression that is expected during that time period:

THE WEAKNESS OVER THE EAST WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL FEATURE STARTING
OFF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WHICH GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THIS TIME...
A SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE EDGE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE. WHAT WILL RESULT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD
SHOULD BE RIDGING TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS.

Thank you for bringing the ECMWF data about the heights increasing.The question for the NE Caribbean folks is which will be right the ECM or the GFS.

[hurricanetrack]

Sorry if I did not read far enough back but geez, the HWRF has this crossing 50W near 15-16N. Not going to happen....

Try again in 6 hours...

[Derek Ortt]

however, how far north will this system be once the ridge builds back in? I could see it at 28N then, and that is far enough to send this out to sea

[KWT]

Derek, what happens if this stays weak, is the lower level steering pattern going to keep taking this westward?

28N would indeed be far enough north I suspect, 21-23N would be far more risky...

[Derek Ortt]

may go a little farther west if this stays weak. However, what we are seeing may be a temporary fluctuation

[cycloneye]

No TCPOD yet.I imagine they are very busy preparing not only for 94L but for Jimena.

[KWT]

Yeah your probably right Derek.
Cycloneye, just a matter of time before it comes out, I'm guessing we could have recon as soon as tomorrow then?

[southerngale]

however, how far north will this system be once the ridge builds back in? I could see it at 28N then, and that is far enough to send this out to sea

Shouldn't it start gaining some serious latitude soon, then? To my untrained eyes, it still seems to be heading generally westwards, although most of the models show it moving more NW immediately. Is there something there now to turn it?

[Derek Ortt]

look for the low to relocated farther north. I am still counting on that happening

[Aric Dunn]

Latest image really does show this system weakening again, wonder what is causing this weakening?

Also if this doesn't develop then it seems quite likely this one won't be getting as far north as some models are showing and if thats the case then it may well not recurve at all, though I think thats not the most likely outcome.

Wxman57, yeah best to be safe with this sort of system, esp if it takes longer to get going then we may have thought.

come on buddy you know its normal for convection to go through cycles. not weakening just continuing to organize..