ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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Derek Ortt

Re:

#1421 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:24 am

KWT wrote:To be fair though Derek it the model has shown very high shear near this system for quite some runs so its something wrong with just the hurricane models, the GFS doesn't do anything with this system as well downstream due to the shear levels (its had constantly 20-30kts in this region from this time through till about Friday.


SHIPS gets it shear right from the GFS. Therefore, it is a GFS problem
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1422 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:24 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.



It could be a broad LLC and the buoy is actually now to the east of the actual center. I don't think they have nailed down the exact position of the center or how large it is if one even exists like you point out!


NE winds would be pretty strange if the buoy were east of the center.

I'm inclined to think that there's still some lower pressure down at the south end of this thing. But that should fade away and pressure at the north end should drop if this northern convection burst continues.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1423 Postby tpr1967 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:25 am

This bouy obs appears to be under some broad circ. But like WXman said earlier pressure has been rising at that bouy tyhe past several hours. So does n't appear to be strengthing at the surface.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1424 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:25 am

Doesn't look good. The system needs to bring that big elongation of the surface spiral to the SW back into synch. It won't do that unless it powers up but there's a big ULL downstream that doesn't look conducive to development. Danny struggled in this area too. Nothing to do but see if it overpowers its surroundings and forms.
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#1425 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:30 am

The two vorts are near 13.5 north 54W and 15.1 N 52W


overall center of broad turning.. 14.5N 53.5W motion generally W but has a slight wnw motion over the last 6 hours of about 280 or so..

based on buoy,satellite
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1426 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:30 am

Storm is telling you I have potential:


Image
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#1427 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:32 am

If there wasn't shear coming onto it from the west then this would very likely be a depression based on that presentation, convection still very intense indeed.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1428 Postby tpr1967 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:33 am

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1429 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:38 am

The sweep missed the center.


This is a TD. I guess they are denying it on structure and appearance.
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#1430 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:39 am

thats not a true wave. That is a cusp given the SW winds
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#1431 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:40 am

Nogaps turn west towards south florida at end of run as ridge build westward over US east coast..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2009083106
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Re:

#1432 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:40 am

Derek Ortt wrote:thats not a true wave. That is a cusp given the SW winds


Sorry but does that mean its close to closing of the circulation then?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1433 Postby tpr1967 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:41 am

It's not closed up. Just saying. Quiksat looks worse then yesterday, Thats all. :lol:
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#1434 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:46 am

the cusp is better defined than yesterday evening

and no, this is not a TD yet Sanibel
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#1435 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:46 am

gator, I don't that thing in the gom is this on the euro. Euro actually looks to develop this ok, drives it into the islands, and I think its somewhere in the bahamas as you posted before.
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#1436 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:52 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

Well, this really does have the "look"
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#1437 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:54 am

Ok thanks Derek.

Its not that far off if it has SW winds, just needs to finish the job and hope that it doesn't get exposed before it gets upgraded because I suspect with the shear ahead of it its going to look somewhat like Danny towards the back end of this week...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1438 Postby tpr1967 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:55 am

Derek, can you give me info on this cusp thing i would like to know more about it. Thanks Tom
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#1439 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:55 am

winds turn from the SW through the NE. We are missing northerly and NW winds
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#1440 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:55 am

I'd lay odds on a TD by 5, but it's clearly not a closed circulation yet.
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