ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Gustywind]

I still do not see a motion of 300 .. lol
if this goes north of the islands i will be surprised..

? what do you see? what motion?

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 012146
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 34 20090901
213700 1743N 05742W 9642 00395 0088 +228 +206 074028 029 024 000 00
213730 1744N 05743W 9643 00396 0089 +227 +205 074029 030 026 000 00
213800 1745N 05744W 9645 00396 0090 +229 +204 071030 031 028 000 03
213830 1746N 05745W 9645 00395 0090 +226 +204 071032 032 028 000 03
213900 1748N 05747W 9645 00397 0091 +226 +203 068031 032 999 999 03
213930 1749N 05748W 9643 00398 0092 +228 +202 071033 033 029 000 03
214000 1750N 05749W 9647 00396 0092 +225 +202 071034 035 029 000 03
214030 1751N 05750W 9644 00398 0091 +229 +202 074035 036 029 000 03
214100 1752N 05752W 9645 00396 0092 +230 +201 076036 036 029 000 03
214130 1753N 05753W 9645 00397 0093 +226 +201 076036 037 030 000 03
214200 1755N 05754W 9642 00402 0094 +226 +201 075037 038 029 000 03
214230 1756N 05756W 9644 00400 0095 +227 +201 076037 038 999 999 03
214300 1757N 05757W 9646 00399 0096 +225 +201 076037 039 030 000 03
214330 1758N 05758W 9647 00398 0096 +227 +201 077038 038 029 000 03
214400 1759N 05759W 9644 00404 0098 +225 +200 079040 041 031 000 03
214430 1801N 05801W 9645 00401 0099 +225 +200 079041 042 033 000 03
214500 1802N 05802W 9647 00400 0100 +224 +200 077040 041 035 000 03
214530 1803N 05803W 9646 00403 0101 +224 +199 076039 040 037 000 03
214600 1804N 05804W 9643 00405 0101 +224 +199 078040 042 999 999 03
214630 1805N 05806W 9646 00405 0102 +225 +199 077042 043 037 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[StormTracker]

Nice Hurakan!!! Looks like maybe a CAT1 sometime in the next 24hrs?

[Aric Dunn]

I still do not see a motion of 300 .. lol
if this goes north of the islands i will be surprised..

? what do you see? what motion?

since last night its been moving between WEST and wnw .. over the last 6 hours or so .. of about 285 to 290

[StormTracker]

When will this data start being plugged into the models

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hello Eric I see a movement of 300. This storm continues to look like a classic recurve candidate to me. Should end up recurving to the right of the CONUS by several hundred miles. Again its not a Florida Storm if it becomes a hurricane. so I have ZERO worries about this system impacting this state.
If it stays weak, (like a tropical wave) it may get into the Bahamas....but that is the only way I see.

[RL3AO]

When will this data start being plugged into the models

It won't be. Its not a NOAA G-IV flight.

[HURAKAN]

847
URNT12 KNHC 012150
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL942009
A. 01/21:21:50Z
B. 17 deg 08 min N
057 deg 05 min W
C. NA
D. 36 kt
E. 136 deg 92 nm
F. 197 deg 38 kt
G. 136 deg 85 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 416 m
J. 23 C / 415 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 09
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 19:25:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 146 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 012150
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL942009
A. 01/21:21:50Z
B. 17 deg 08 min N
057 deg 05 min W
C. NA
D. 36 kt
E. 136 deg 92 nm
F. 197 deg 38 kt
G. 136 deg 85 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 416 m
J. 23 C / 415 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 09
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 19:25:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 146 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[HURAKAN]

847
URNT12 KNHC 012150
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL942009
A. 01/21:21:50Z
B. 17 deg 08 min N
057 deg 05 min W
C. NA
D. 36 kt
E. 136 deg 92 nm
F. 197 deg 38 kt
G. 136 deg 85 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 416 m
J. 23 C / 415 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 09
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 19:25:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 146 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Gustywind]

I still do not see a motion of 300 .. lol
if this goes north of the islands i will be surprised..

? what do you see? what motion?

since last night its been moving between WEST and wnw .. over the last 6 hours or so .. of about 285 to 290

Ok tkanks Aric Dunn so does it mean that Erika could pass more closely to the Northern Leewards?if this trend continues? Any thougts?

[Bocadude85]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hello Eric I see a movement of 300. This storm continues to look like a classic recurve candidate to me. Should end up recurving to the right of the CONUS by several hundred miles. Again its not a Florida Storm if it becomes a hurricane.

Assuming it gains strength... it it stays a weak ts then westward it will go.

[gatorcane]

right but if it stays weak it barely will impact our weather right? I'm seeing T-storms out there right now from typical afternoon T-storm activity that would be worse than a weak wave would bring....

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Erika looks to be SE of where NHC initiated advisories

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 012156
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 35 20090901
214700 1807N 05807W 9645 00406 0102 +225 +198 076042 042 036 000 03
214730 1808N 05808W 9643 00409 0104 +222 +198 074040 041 037 000 03
214800 1809N 05810W 9644 00408 0104 +225 +197 074040 041 999 999 03
214830 1810N 05811W 9644 00409 0105 +225 +197 075040 040 037 000 03
214900 1811N 05812W 9642 00410 0105 +226 +197 075039 040 999 999 03
214930 1813N 05813W 9642 00411 0106 +226 +197 075041 042 038 000 03
215000 1814N 05815W 9644 00410 0106 +225 +198 074040 041 036 000 03
215030 1815N 05816W 9643 00412 0107 +223 +198 075040 042 036 000 03
215100 1816N 05817W 9643 00410 0108 +217 +198 075045 045 038 000 03
215130 1817N 05819W 9646 00409 0110 +213 +196 078042 044 039 000 03
215200 1819N 05820W 9642 00414 0110 +217 +192 077046 047 037 000 03
215230 1820N 05821W 9646 00411 0110 +224 +189 074047 047 999 999 03
215300 1821N 05822W 9642 00415 0110 +230 +187 075047 047 036 000 03
215330 1822N 05824W 9647 00411 0111 +224 +188 075046 047 037 000 00
215400 1823N 05825W 9640 00417 0114 +208 +188 076046 048 039 001 00
215430 1824N 05827W 9636 00423 0115 +207 +186 071038 040 999 999 03
215500 1824N 05828W 9649 00409 0114 +217 +184 070035 037 999 999 03
215530 1822N 05828W 9644 00414 0114 +204 +184 073037 039 039 000 03
215600 1820N 05828W 9653 00403 0114 +203 +183 070039 042 042 004 00
215630 1819N 05828W 9645 00412 0111 +219 +180 067038 040 038 000 03
$$
;

[vacanechaser]

Erika looks to be SE of where NHC initiated advisories

getting pulled back by the convection???? hmmmm




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[StormTracker]

Erika looks to be SE of where NHC initiated advisories

Oh snap...so here we go again with a major model makeover(REMIX)!

[deltadog03]

getting back to the very deep convection firing off.