rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?
Very complex. It could allow the ridge to build in, or allow another through to come, or something else.
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rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?
rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?
fasterdisaster wrote:Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?
Aric Dunn wrote:rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?
actually yes.. hence the models reacted to the lack of forward motion and shifted slightly west. the longer it hangs back the more west it could make it according to the lasted models synoptics..
'CaneFreak wrote:fasterdisaster wrote:Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?
you answered your own question....the center is so large and elongated (still)...that the pressure is still having a hard time falling at a rapid rate...
gatorcane wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?
actually yes.. hence the models reacted to the lack of forward motion and shifted slightly west. the longer it hangs back the more west it could make it according to the lasted models synoptics..
How so if it deepens, for example should hook more northward even quicker wouldn't you think given an approaching trough rolling off the Eastern CONUS in 84 hours (NAM depicts this trough well)? What makes you think more west if it stalls?
tpr1967 wrote:Overall the middle of the convections coldest cloud tops have been moving slowly sw these evening.
fasterdisaster wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:fasterdisaster wrote:Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?
you answered your own question....the center is so large and elongated (still)...that the pressure is still having a hard time falling at a rapid rate...
Oh I see, thanks. Usually larger cyclones (Katrina, Floyd, Ivan) have low pressures for their windspeeds, hence my confusion.
Evil Jeremy wrote:AdamFirst wrote:wzrgirl1 wrote:which models?
Pretty much all of them.
To sum up the latest model run, the 00z BAM's have shifted significantly north (but they don't really count in the first place lol). The 00z CMC is virtually identically to the 18z run, which is very close to the center of the NHC cone. the 18z GFDL and HWRF have shifted south and west, and the 18z NOGAPS seems to be more north but more west than the previous run. The 18z GFS is the southern outlier, taking it into the (south part of the) Northern Bahamas. Overall, the TVCN, which represents the average of all the models above combined, has shifted a little south and west.
gatorcane wrote:man there is so much convection its hard to see what is even going on at the surface. Looks like little movement to me but who knows. Models have it moving out to the WNW already.
gatorcane wrote:man there is so much convection its hard to see what is even going on at the surface. Looks like little movement to me but who knows. Models have it moving out to the WNW already.
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