Strong wave in Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET develops this wave.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.4N 22.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2009 14.4N 22.1W MODERATE
00UTC 05.09.2009 15.3N 24.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2009 16.3N 26.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2009 17.4N 28.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2009 17.8N 30.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2009 18.1N 32.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2009 17.9N 34.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2009 17.9N 36.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2009 17.6N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


Also GFS has it developing.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[otowntiger]

12z UKMET develops this wave.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.4N 22.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2009 14.4N 22.1W MODERATE
00UTC 05.09.2009 15.3N 24.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2009 16.3N 26.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2009 17.4N 28.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2009 17.8N 30.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2009 18.1N 32.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2009 17.9N 34.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2009 17.9N 36.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2009 17.6N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


Also GFS has it developing.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Yeah, but as a huge fish.

[StormClouds63]

otowntiger:

You beat me to it. Yes, Fred looks very fishy ... It's an early run, but the re-curve scenario appears set in stone for 2009 ... so much for my hunch of Fred breaking the trend! Does look like a pretty strong system, perhaps a major hurricane down the line.

[StormClouds63]

Wx_Warrior:

The mets at Channel 6 do a great job ... watch them regularly. They were the first who kept warning people of the tremendous storm surge associated w/Ike. So if they see a GOM threat down-the-line, I'll be paying close attention. Hoping for a carbon-copy of Bill with recurve and weakening.

[Big O]

Wx_Warrior:

The mets at Channel 6 do a great job ... watch them regularly. They were the first who kept warning people of the tremendous storm surge associated w/Ike. So if they see a GOM threat down-the-line, I'll be paying close attention. Hoping for a carbon-copy of Bill with recurve and weakening.

Have the Channel 6 mets said this system (or any other for that matter) is a GOM threat?

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[StormClouds63]

This storm isn't the one that will worry GOM'ers. Just wait for this monster coming off of Africa that won't recurve! 2 week EURO is nasty......

Now back to E

This was mentioned in the Erika thread.

[Wx_Warrior]

On the 6 thing: absolutely not.

My brother just told me one of those over Africa was picked up by the EURO and it heads west in the Atlantic but the pro Model didn't go any further.

[Big O]

On the 6 thing: absolutely not.

My brother just told me one of those over Africa was picked up by the EURO and it heads west in the Atlantic but the pro Model didn't go any further.

Does the European go out to two weeks? I know it goes out to 10 days, but I hadn't heard it went out 2 weeks.

[Wx_Warrior]

If you pay for the EURO, it goes out further.

[chzzdekr81]

That storm over the coast of Africa looks like it might turn into "Fred" pretty soon.

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite good

[lonelymike]

Is kind of a high latitude so el fisho probably.

[BigA]

Development, and time therof will depend a lot on whether it can create a new bust of convection near the center of rotation when it gets fully over water. Of course, quick development likely means a fish, but it looks to me like the area of vorticity is near and below 10 north, which can be pretty hard to pull northward, especially if it does not develop until 35 west or farther.

[srainhoutx]

Development, and time therof will depend a lot on whether it can create a new bust of convection near the center of rotation when it gets fully over water. Of course, quick development likely means a fish, but it looks to me like the area of vorticity is near and below 10 north, which can be pretty hard to pull northward, especially if it does not develop until 35 west or farther.

The year of 50W. Wave looks impressive. Worth watching.

[HURAKAN]

Over the coast

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA LOCATED JUST WEST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...A
FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Impressive system

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. KITTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Sanibel]

Weird "ring" type circulation.

Looks like nothing will seriously develop without a strong MJO this year.


No idea what this one will do.