ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[artist]

Artist I think it's a Mid Level Circulation you might see on IR2..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

thank you Aquawind! Glad to know OTown and I aren't crazy! lol

[artist]

is anyone else noting that spin she has going now in her far upper right hand corner? Look at it on loop in the enhanced and it is clearly there. 18/56
OTown asked if it was the mlc and hasn't gotten a response either. Anyone?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

No, don't see it.

I see what he's talking about. Looks like a vort max moving drifting northward. Looks like its sitting b/w 350-450 mb's...20-25K feet. Yet another "bad sign."

so a bad sign as in tearing apart?

[HURAKAN]

Heavy rainfall

[SapphireSea]

I see what he's talking about. Looks like a vort max moving drifting northward. Looks like its sitting b/w 350-450 mb's...20-25K feet. Yet another "bad sign."

so a bad sign as in tearing apart?

I believe it signifies that shear is causing decoupling of the system at higher layers, the storm has very bad structure, probobly may not have an LLC as we speak.

[BigA]

The odd thing is how deceiving appearences can be. If I hadn't known the history of Erika, and someone just showed me the infrared and said "look at this category 1 hurricane," I would believe him/her. Nonetheless, I think this thing is toast, but with the amount of sheer convective energy it has, I don't know if there is any practical difference between a 40 mph tropical storm that brings 10 inches of rain and a tropical disturbance with wind gusts to 40 mph that brings 10 inches of rain.

Perhaps it matters to us so much because tropical cyclones are named.

[Aquawind]

Well as AFM mentioned it's not a good sign.. For good organization it needs to be stacked at all levels and this has been far from the case the Erika. Just another sign of competing swirls at different heights..It's far from coming together at the moment..just the opposite.. Now the LLC could still reform under the convection but, everything suggests it wont matter much with all of the shear forecast at the moment..things can change and the models data can be wrong..so we keep watching.

[SapphireSea]

The odd thing is how deceiving appearences can be. If I hadn't known the history of Erika, and someone just showed me the infrared and said "look at this category 1 hurricane," I would believe him/her. Nonetheless, I think this thing is toast, but with the amount of sheer convective energy it has, I don't know if there is any practical difference between a 40 mph tropical storm that brings 10 inches of rain and a tropical disturbance with wind gusts to 40 mph that brings 10 inches of rain.

Perhaps it matters to us so much because tropical cyclones are named.

In a disorganized convective mass like this, 40mph gusts would be very isolated in heavier bands. A 35kt TS would have a bigger swath of "40mph" winds caused by a true concentrated area of low pressure. Despite what it seems this probobly does have a decent area of 20-25kt winds regardless.

[DeanDaDream]

Heavy rainfall

[quote] from Derek Ortt.... Erika forecasts in analysis forum> Of course, if convection keeps firing near the 850mb center found by recon that is approaching Barbuda, and the center reforms there, this entire forecast will need to be chucked tomorrow morning.

[fd122]

Heavy rainfall

Looking forward to the rain coming soon (hopefully in non destructive amounts).

[Aquawind]

The odd thing is how deceiving appearences can be. If I hadn't known the history of Erika, and someone just showed me the infrared and said "look at this category 1 hurricane," I would believe him/her. Nonetheless, I think this thing is toast, but with the amount of sheer convective energy it has, I don't know if there is any practical difference between a 40 mph tropical storm that brings 10 inches of rain and a tropical disturbance with wind gusts to 40 mph that brings 10 inches of rain.
Perhaps it matters to us so much because tropical cyclones are named.

In a disorganized convective mass like this, 40mph gusts would be very isolated in heavier bands. A 35kt TS would have a bigger swath of "40mph" winds caused by a true concentrated area of low pressure. Despite what it seems this probobly does have a decent area of 20-25kt winds regardless.

Well there is a big difference you have heavy rains and strong winds that last for more than minutes..overtime the combination will weaken structures, plants, tress, ect and they go flying or falling. The combination for extended amount of time makes all the difference and thus the name classification.

[Bocadude85]

Heavy rainfall

from Derek Ortt.... Erika forecasts in analysis forum> Of course, if convection keeps firing near the 850mb center found by recon that is approaching Barbuda, and the center reforms there, this entire forecast will need to be chucked tomorrow morning.

Wonder what he means by that.

[CrazyC83]

If this split into two separate systems with two LLC's, which one retains Erika and which becomes TD7/Fred?

[storms NC]

May I ask a question? Can this TS split and redevelop a new LLC over in the east side or Both? And we would have 2 storms that came from 1. Has this ever happen? I haven't look this up. I just seen the WV loop and it went thought my head that it is splitting. Than I read a few post. I am on my way to bed and look to see what was going on. Oh well This is some TS to say the lease

[Evil Jeremy]

I really doubt Erika will "split" into 2 more storms. More than likely it will just dissolve into itself and die out lol. I asked Derek though if he thought that the center would reform north, and he described it as a "coinflip", hmm.....

[storms NC]

So I am not the only one who thinks this?

[SapphireSea]

If this split into two separate systems with two LLC's, which one retains Erika and which becomes TD7/Fred?

I believe since that other vort is in the upper levels, it would form a brand new LLC which would be TD7/Fred. This is definately not the operational LLC they were tracking for Erika. The odds of that vort surviving are less than 1%.

[Evil Jeremy]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREFATER.

[BigA]

There's an 850 mb center near Barbuda? That's pretty darn close to the surface, is it not, about a mile? I'd be interested to see what recon finds tonight, if any flights are scheduled.

[Aquawind]

this entire forecast will need to be chucked tomorrow morning.

Maybe in path but, the shear is still forecast..so it could be moot. If it delays the forward progess into a hostile enviroment for the time being..then it may matter because the shear won't last forever..timing is everything..

[Evil Jeremy]

Tidbits from tonight's discussion:

ERIKA IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A
FEW HOURS AGO AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE
THAT ERIKA IS VERY DISORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD ELONGATED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
SQUALLS...LIMITED TO A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A NEW
CENTER COULD REFORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE. INFRARED
PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS...BUT THERE IS ALSO SHEAR CAUSED BY WINDS BELOW THE
CIRRUS CANOPY BECAUSE THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT ERIKA
IS ON ITS WAY TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR REFORM
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.