Evil Jeremy wrote:sandyb wrote:i'm not saying I dont want it to, cause I do but if you say you do you get blasted from some folks, thats why i'm here hoping to see someone say something good about its development the hurricane center sure is not giving us much hope. And I have to say if it does develop it comes up this way to NC sorry but putting out the facts fun to track and I enjoy the waves wind and excitment that comes along with these storms
Many of us here enjoy the excitement these storms provide. Anyways, the NHC is not giving it a big chance because it takes it into the DR. If it goes north of the DR, it won't have to ddeal with land and mountain interaction and could have a better chance.
ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
Actually I believe the NHC is not giving it much of chance because of the very hostile (serious shear) conditions ahead of it no matter where it goes. IMO
Last edited by Stormcenter on Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
Sanibel wrote:
Last night someone (I think deltadog maybe) said that if the center can reform north, it would be in a better environment with less shear. Not according to that graph lol.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
Hmm, so much confusion as to where this system will end up.
It's a good thing Texas is safe in September!
It's a good thing Texas is safe in September!

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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:not a wave, the center is near 64.2W
What latitude? 16.3? It can't be up at 16.9N or that SE wind would be blowing straight into the center. I don't see much of a swirl there any more, but I agree what's left of any center is well west of 63.5.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
Think I see our old vortex friend on NHC trop points near 18.4N-60W headed on NHC track. Just SE of St Croix.
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater
A weak LLC appears to be SSE of St. Croix
I see that tiny eddy at 17.3N/64W. No convergence into it. Just a tiny vortex moving out away from the squalls.
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:HURAKAN wrote:Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater
A weak LLC appears to be SSE of St. Croix
I see that tiny eddy at 17.3N/64W. No convergence into it. Just a tiny vortex moving out away from the squalls.
Looks quite bad
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
knotimpaired wrote:cycloneye wrote:
Well that's that. Most people are not concerned here about it but I think many will regret that. Puerto Rico has a law that states when a TS Watch goes into effect, alcohol sales are banned from every establishment on the island.
So much for those naysayer's who will have a dry couple of days.
We have a TS warning now.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
somethingfunny wrote:Hmm, so much confusion as to where this system will end up.
It's a good thing Texas is safe in September!![]()
Where my thwapping trout??

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
The only hope is a quick pass over Puerto Rico and an unexpected shear change north of the islands. Otherwise NHC probably has a handle on a shear fizzer.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
cycloneye wrote:knotimpaired wrote:cycloneye wrote:
Well that's that. Most people are not concerned here about it but I think many will regret that. Puerto Rico has a law that states when a TS Watch goes into effect, alcohol sales are banned from every establishment on the island.
So much for those naysayer's who will have a dry couple of days.
We have a TS warning now.
My mistake, I just read it to quick and saw the 11 a.m. and assumed it had been upgraded since we have been on a warning for some time now.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
I see Erika is far enough west to get into the 1km visible area of my GARP workstation. Can see another small eddy on the latest image. This really doesn't qualify as an LLC,though. And the many obs around Erika certainly don't indicate it's a TS as far as intensity. Erika has been on life support for over 24 hours with nothing but a flat line. Time to call it, NHC.


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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
Could be another Ana, but I'd wait to see if the waters north of the Antilles make a difference.
I think NHC has already "called it". Their chart maps a weakening depression to Low above the islands.
I think NHC has already "called it". Their chart maps a weakening depression to Low above the islands.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)
I don't trust this season to not hatch an October storm that taps all those warm waters that haven't been tapped yet in the western Atlantic basin.
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