ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Stormcenter]

Actually I believe the NHC is not giving it much of chance because of the very hostile (serious shear) conditions ahead of it no matter where it goes. IMO

i'm not saying I dont want it to, cause I do but if you say you do you get blasted from some folks, thats why i'm here hoping to see someone say something good about its development the hurricane center sure is not giving us much hope. And I have to say if it does develop it comes up this way to NC sorry but putting out the facts fun to track and I enjoy the waves wind and excitment that comes along with these storms

Many of us here enjoy the excitement these storms provide. Anyways, the NHC is not giving it a big chance because it takes it into the DR. If it goes north of the DR, it won't have to ddeal with land and mountain interaction and could have a better chance.

[Evil Jeremy]

Last night someone (I think deltadog maybe) said that if the center can reform north, it would be in a better environment with less shear. Not according to that graph lol.

[somethingfunny]

Hmm, so much confusion as to where this system will end up.

It's a good thing Texas is safe in September!

[wxman57]

not a wave, the center is near 64.2W

What latitude? 16.3? It can't be up at 16.9N or that SE wind would be blowing straight into the center. I don't see much of a swirl there any more, but I agree what's left of any center is well west of 63.5.

[Derek Ortt]

look at the mid level shear

[Sanibel]

Think I see our old vortex friend on NHC trop points near 18.4N-60W headed on NHC track. Just SE of St Croix.

[wxman57]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

A weak LLC appears to be SSE of St. Croix

I see that tiny eddy at 17.3N/64W. No convergence into it. Just a tiny vortex moving out away from the squalls.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

A weak LLC appears to be SSE of St. Croix

I see that tiny eddy at 17.3N/64W. No convergence into it. Just a tiny vortex moving out away from the squalls.

Looks quite bad

[cycloneye]

Well that's that. Most people are not concerned here about it but I think many will regret that. Puerto Rico has a law that states when a TS Watch goes into effect, alcohol sales are banned from every establishment on the island.

So much for those naysayer's who will have a dry couple of days.

We have a TS warning now.

[deltadog03]

Eh, this chica looks terrible......

[vbhoutex]

Hmm, so much confusion as to where this system will end up.

It's a good thing Texas is safe in September!

Where my thwapping trout??

[Sanibel]

The only hope is a quick pass over Puerto Rico and an unexpected shear change north of the islands. Otherwise NHC probably has a handle on a shear fizzer.

[knotimpaired]

Well that's that. Most people are not concerned here about it but I think many will regret that. Puerto Rico has a law that states when a TS Watch goes into effect, alcohol sales are banned from every establishment on the island.

So much for those naysayer's who will have a dry couple of days.

We have a TS warning now.

My mistake, I just read it to quick and saw the 11 a.m. and assumed it had been upgraded since we have been on a warning for some time now.

[wxman57]

I see Erika is far enough west to get into the 1km visible area of my GARP workstation. Can see another small eddy on the latest image. This really doesn't qualify as an LLC,though. And the many obs around Erika certainly don't indicate it's a TS as far as intensity. Erika has been on life support for over 24 hours with nothing but a flat line. Time to call it, NHC.

[Evil Jeremy]

Erika is dieing. For pretty much all this week it has waned during the day and strengthened at night, but it just couldn't pull it off last night. This is Erika's final day IMO.

[Sanibel]

Could be another Ana, but I'd wait to see if the waters north of the Antilles make a difference.


I think NHC has already "called it". Their chart maps a weakening depression to Low above the islands.

[StormClouds63]

Dr. McCoy report to the bridge ... Kirk out.

[HURAKAN]

Erika's latest rental from Netflix:

[Sanibel]

I don't trust this season to not hatch an October storm that taps all those warm waters that haven't been tapped yet in the western Atlantic basin.

[deltadog03]

This "wave/Erika" has plenty of potential energy, but shear is just kicking its butt. I don't know if its time yet, but we are getting closer.