Strong wave in Eastern Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Waiting for a burst of thunderstorms near the center (likely during D-MAX). Look at the SAL to the north.

[cycloneye]

This wave has been introduced in the 12 UTC surface analysis with a 1012mb surface low.

[otowntiger]

Waiting for a burst of thunderstorms near the center (likely during D-MAX). Look at the SAL to the north.

You may be waiting a while. It looks SAL could be already drying this one up like a thirsty sponge .

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF ST. CROIX.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS DIMINISHED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Convection remains shallow at best

[Sanibel]

Interesting to note rain in the Algerian Sahara in this IR shot:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIKA LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION BUT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Development could be on the way

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Development could be on the way

Interesting...It also has some model support and move it in a westward direction in the short term...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 18N22W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 14.5N22W
TO 9N20W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS A
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 22-24W.



This is the system reaching 40W

[HURAKAN]

121
ABNT20 KNHC 041146
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

Slowly organizing

[punkyg]

I agree that its slowly organizing and now I think we might possibly have 2 storms soon,
with the storm to its west gaining more convection.

[wxman57]

I don't see any evidence of increasing organization on satellite imagery or with surface obs. Convection is decreasing and the circulation is weaker than yesterday. The low center is well north of the convection and heading for cooler water and dry air (see below). The disturbance to its west is even weaker, and it's also choking on a good bit of Saharan dirt. Just a single small area of storms.

Looks like we may well go through the entire Labor Day weekend (U.S.) without a named storm in the tropics.

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman57, Oh well, I guess there's still October.

[Sanibel]

The negative atmospheric won't spring a storm without an MJO pulse.


Whatever went on in the atmosphere that caused the big arctic ice over last year is probably connected to a prevailing negativity in the tropical Atlantic this year.

['CaneFreak]

The negative atmospheric won't spring a storm without an MJO pulse.


Whatever went on in the atmosphere that caused the big arctic ice over last year is probably connected to a prevailing negativity in the tropical Atlantic this year.

Big arctic Ice? Really? That sounds interesting...do you have a link that tells about it?

[ConvergenceZone]

The negative atmospheric won't spring a storm without an MJO pulse.


Whatever went on in the atmosphere that caused the big arctic ice over last year is probably connected to a prevailing negativity in the tropical Atlantic this year.

I have a feeling that 2009 may go down as one of the most low activity years in history,
with not even a hint that anything is going to change that.

[Canelaw99]

I have a feeling that 2009 may go down as one of the most low activity years in history,
with not even a hint that anything is going to change that.

Sorry about that...I'm pregnant, due in a week, and sent Mother Nature a memo months ago telling her we needed to have a quiet season, at least till after the baby is born. Guess she listened

[HURAKAN]

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