Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

FRED...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 100833
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

...FRED STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BY
LATE TONIGHT...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1135 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
FRED IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 34.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTNT22 KNHC 100831
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 34.6W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 34.6W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 34.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 35.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.4N 35.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.9N 34.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 39.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 34.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTNT42 KNHC 100834
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

FRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH
OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. AN
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD
AN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO
UNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG
SHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX
HOURS AGO.

THE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10. THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND
BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT
COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 34.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.6N 35.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 17.4N 35.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 17.9N 34.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 34.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 35.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 34.6W AT 10/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 610 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 31W-36W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
29W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A NARROW MAXIMUM AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEING INHIBITED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AS ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N18W 15N28W 11N42W 8N60W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRED... ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-27W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N33W TO 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC EXTENDS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE WRN
GULF. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
FEATURES AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT...UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL AND WRN GULF W OF A LINE
FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 20N96W. AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR POMPANO BEACH FLORIDA THROUGH 24N83W TO
NEAR CANCUN MEXICO AND REMAINS LOCATED NEAR THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE W ATLC. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SE GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF
26N E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CANCUN MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED OVER
CUBA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 79W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT AIR DUE TO NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN MEXICO AND A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 82W AND CONTINUES DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ON SWLY WINDS FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA TO OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NE TO PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-82W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W AND
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR POMPANO BEACH FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-81W...
INCLUDING THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT DIPS SWD FROM THE ERN CONUS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLC WATERS TO 23N. FARTHER TO THE SE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N65W AND HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN WRN ATLC TROUGH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 61W-70W. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N59W.
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 31N45W AND EXTENDS SW TO A 1016 MB LOW
NEAR 28N50W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE AREA FROM
26N-30N BETWEEN 47W-51W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N47W TO 24N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
22N46W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...HURRICANE FRED
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER
THE ERN ATLC S OF 25N E OF 41W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRED.

$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

KNHC 101435
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FRED STILL HAS AN EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT
ELONGATED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
HURRICANE. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. BECAUSE FRED IS HEADING TOWARD A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING. FRED COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EVEN EARLIER. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AT 96
HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN FRED AS STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BUT WITH SUCH PREVAILING HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS NOT REALISTIC.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FRED
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OR MOST LIKELY IT WILL
MEANDER FOR TWO OR THREE DAYS. BY THEN...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF FRED...FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST PATH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING THE WESTWARD BEND. BY THEN...GIVEN THE PREVAILING
STRONG SHEAR FRED IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.8N 35.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 35.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 35.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 18.2N 35.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.6N 34.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 38.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 24.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 101454
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED BY
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND THE WINDS WERE GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 MPH. AT 10 AM AST...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS BOTH SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX.

A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT VERY NICE WEATHER WITH NO MORE THAN A
STRAY LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

$$

SR

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 101458
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR HAS SETTLED
IN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONLY ACROSS TJMZ BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

[Gustywind]

The Lesser Antillles...are quiet and we're enjoying our little paradise

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 35.1W AT 10/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 640 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 34W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 31W-37W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
FOLLOWS A BROAD MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES UNDER DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR WHICH IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 11N22W 15N28W 12N33W
10N50W 8N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-15N
BETWEEN 13W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
COASTLINE EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST TO 28N96W CONTINUING S TO 24N97W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W AND N CENTRAL GULF FROM
25N-30N W OF 87W...AND S OF 25N W OF 95W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N83W THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 19N86W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE SE
OF THE BASIN OVER CUBA. HOWEVER...KEY WEST FLORIDA RADAR AND
RECENT LIGHTNING RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 26N E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NWLY TO NLY FLOW AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED W OF MEXICO NEAR 22N113W COVERS
THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER VIRGINIA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE TROUGH IN THE SE GULF DRIFTS NW AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS APPROACH THE NW GULF WATERS
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 19N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 80W-85W INCLUDING WRN CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW
BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO COSTA RICA. MOIST SWLY FLOW
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
78W-82W. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS WLY OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUING TO DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
BETWEEN 13N-17N. DRY AIR ALOFT IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BELT OF
MOSITURE WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 73W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN BECOMING STRONG IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE
TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO LIFT TO THE NW...AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 73W TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N72W
CONTINUING ALONG 29N76W TO THE S FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THIS AREA GENERATING
LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOME PORTIONS. AS OF 10/1200
UTC...FREEPORT BAHAMAS REPORTED 3.21 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUING DOWN THE ERN
UNITED STATES COASTLINE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W. THE LOW
IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N65W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 61W-68W. A
WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N60W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N48W TO
24N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N50W TO 31N45W. NO SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS TO THE E ALONG 32N34W TO 18N52W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL AND ERN ATLC CENTERED E OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N20W SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
AND HURRICANE FRED.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SINKING
WEAKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER TUTT LINGERING NORTH NORTHEAST OF REGION WILL HELP MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS AS WE REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT
SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CU LINES DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...
WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUED ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...LOCAL SEA CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECTS RESULTED IN LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. LATEST TWP PRODUCT FROM CIMMS HOWEVER SHOWED DECREASING
PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS THE RECENT 12Z TJSJ AND
MACM U/A SOUNDINGS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A MID LEVEL VORT MAX TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO ENHANCED SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND CHANCE
OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WILL WITH PRESENT AND EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO BY MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 101943
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
AND THE WINDS WERE GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 MPH. AT 3 PM
AST...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS BOTH
SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX.

A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL...EXPECT VERY NICE WEATHER
WITH ONLY A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

$$

SR

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102346
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 102337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 35.1W AT 10/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 640 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED DUE TO INCREASING
SWLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 34W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS BEGINNING TO LAG THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO AND
WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THUS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N22W 13N31W 11N41W 12N48W
10N56W 10N62W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 13N18W TO 15N17W INCLUDING DAKAR IN SENEGAL W AFRICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 39W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 37W-57W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED INLAND
JUST W OF MATAMOROS MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE IS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM
23N87W NE ALONG 26N83W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES
INTO THE W ATLC NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE N PORTION OF MEXICO INDUCING
A SHARP UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COAST WITH A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS S TO OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS IS
CREATING A VERY DIFFLUENT ALOFT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE SW GULF AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N WHERE ONLY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
FOUND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W PANAMA
TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS WELL AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER IMAGERY AND WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA AND IN
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 21N. AN AREA OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 77W-82W. A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO 15N BETWEEN
65W-75W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA E OF 80W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N72W SW
ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO NAPLES. AN UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE CAROLINAS S TO OVER NE
FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 75W. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NE TO NEAR BERMUDA
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF
A LINE FROM 30N67W 25N67W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. A WEAK 1015 MB
SURFACE LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W. THE LOW IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC S OF
28N INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-70W AND CENTERED NEAR
25N66W. A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NNE OF THE SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 29N63W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N35W TO A LARGE RATHER DRY UPPER LOW NEAR
21N48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N43W TO
25N55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N46W S TO 14N48W WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING N OF 25N
FROM 20W-40W. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
31N16W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM INLAND
OVER MOROCCO SW TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE

[cycloneye]

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009

...FRED WEAKENS AND SLOWS DOWN A LITTLE MORE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...
1190 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. FRED IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FRED SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

WTNT42 KNHC 110240
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF FRED. A
COMPARISON OF THE 37- AND 85-GHZ CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM A 2212 UTC
TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 20-25 N MI NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT EYEWALL IS COMPLETELY ERODED ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE. THIS PATTERN HAS YIELDED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS FRED DUE TO 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AFTER THAT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN
THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FRED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS AND ULTIMATELY A REMNANT LOW
BY DAY 4.

THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND FRED ARE BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT. ONLY A SLOW
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS FRED TEMPORARILY RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. ONCE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT DOES NOT
SHOW AS MUCH OF AN EASTWARD BEND AS THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
STILL...THE MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND FRED COULD MEANDER A BIT
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE
ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 17.4N 35.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.7N 35.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.9N 34.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 34.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 18.3N 34.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 20.0N 36.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 21.5N 41.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends. Glad to see you this morning. Fred is always a cat 1 cane but shoud continue to weaken later today. Elsewhere the tropics are quiet and the Lesser Antilles is always enjoying the sunny days...

[Gustywind]

Latest on Hurricane Fred...


















000
WTNT32 KNHC 110847
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

...FRED EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 745 MILES...
1195 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A DRIFT
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRED IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FRED SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.7N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTNT22 KNHC 110847
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 35.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 35.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.9N 35.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.0N 34.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.2N 34.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.6N 34.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 21.5N 42.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 22.5N 47.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 35.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTNT42 KNHC 110848
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER FRED...SO IT
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE ANY STRUCTURAL CHANGES. OVERALL...
CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HOLDING STEADY NEAR 77 KT. YET
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING
ELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH EVEN SOME HINTS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT...BUT
THAT ESTIMATE COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSING STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH EVEN STRONGER
SHEAR THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION OF FRED SHOULD CAUSE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS AND
HELP TO DIMINISH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS MODEL.

IT APPEARS THAT FRED HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH OR 000/3.
LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST PERHAPS NUDGING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTHEASTWARD. ONCE FRED WEAKENS INTO A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A REBUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HR THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST
AFTERWARDS...A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 17.7N 35.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.9N 35.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.0N 34.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.2N 34.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.6N 34.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 20.0N 37.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 21.5N 42.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0600Z 22.5N 47.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IS INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 35.1W AT 11/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 640 NM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 32W-36W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
15N-22N BETWEEN 30W-37W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CIMSS
WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700
MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 14N76W AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ALOFT THE WAVE CONTINUES
MOVING BENEATH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO
RICO SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 15N77W. ONLY MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THUS NO SHOWERS
OR DEEP CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N21W 13N30W 12N38W 12N47W
12N52W 11N62W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N-16N BETWEEN 18W-25W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST.
THE DAKAR SENEGAL UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES A
SURFACE TO 850 MB CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
11/0000 UTC. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IS SUPPORTING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED TO THE SW
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR 29N100W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN
GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 90W. MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTENDS ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST AND OVER
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR E/CENTRAL MEXICO W OF 96W. ACROSS THE ERN
GULF...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W NE ALONG 25N85W AND OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR PORT CHARLOTTE. SERVING AS A FOCUS
FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND A DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE GULF ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N E OF 87W...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PUERTO RICO. N OF THIS TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CUBA AND THE NEARBY CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM
18N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W. FARTHER S...AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W.
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 67W...FAIRLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND MODERATELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SW ACROSS THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N73W SW TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR VERO BEACH AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR PORT CHARLOTTE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 70W.
ALSO...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NE TO
BERMUDA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING IS
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY AND 69W. A WEAK
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W. THE LOW IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED ON A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N59W. FARTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 32N32W TO AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 22N47W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N43W TO 25N52W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
24N47W S TO 13N49W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE
ERN ATLC EXTENDING N OF 25N E OF 40W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 110831
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY
SLOWLY APPROACHING ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS. WINDS HAVE NEARLY CALM.

FOR THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER ST THOMAS AND ST
JOHN...PRODUCING TIMES OF HEAVY RAIN UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AFTERWARDS...A
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL...EXPECT VERY NICE
WEATHER WITH ONLY A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

$$