000
WTNT32 KNHC 100833
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009
...FRED STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BY
LATE TONIGHT...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1135 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
FRED IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 34.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT22 KNHC 100831
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2009
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 34.6W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 34.6W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 34.3W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 35.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.4N 35.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.9N 34.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 39.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 34.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT42 KNHC 100834
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009
FRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH
OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. AN
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD
AN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO
UNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG
SHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX
HOURS AGO.
THE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10. THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND
BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT
COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 34.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.6N 35.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 17.4N 35.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 17.9N 34.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 34.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 35.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




