ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Blown Away]

The Ship models show very slow development over the next 12 hours and then a steady increase as ex-Fred moves towards Florida. This seems to be in line w/ Aric Dunn's maps showing lower shear as this systems nears the Bahamas.

BTW, convection building a little on the W side of the circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[artist]

still labelled 07 by sfwd -

[HURAKAN]

217
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[HURAKAN]

217
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Just in case!

[HURAKAN]

A bigger picture

[Nederlander]

still labelled 07 by sfwd -

Why are the other models not showing up on this map? Are they just not initializing a LLC?

[deltadog03]

The other models prob. havn't ran yet. Takes a bit after the bams come out. They may or may not run the gfdl and hwrf.

[Bocadude85]

Will be interesting to see what happens with Fred as he nears the Bahamas... looks like he is headed more towards Central Florida.. as what I do not know.

[Blown Away]

I never buy W bound named tropical system landfalls N of Vero Beach Florida to the Ga/SC line. I don't care what the models say.

[gatorcane]

well it seems to be organizing but good thing is that is running out of real estate, thankfully. Northerly shear seems to be hitting it also and that coupled with dry air should keep it in check.

[gatorcane]

stronger would means more west in this case, but I doubt it will deepen that much anyway.

[deltadog03]

[Blown Away]

Within the past 24 hours:
Back to code yellow, well defined LLC, convection building around LLC, back on the NRL, BAM models running again, and reconnaissance flight on stand by. For an El Nino season that's pretty good! Go Fred!!

[Sanibel]

Yes, I think a naked spiral alert should be issued.

[AdamFirst]

Yes, I think a naked spiral alert should be issued.

Everyone start putting up your shutters and buying your canned goods

[HURAKAN]

Quikcast indicates that the LLC isn't closed

[Evil Jeremy]

well it seems to be organizing but good thing is that is running out of real estate, thankfully. Northerly shear seems to be hitting it also and that coupled with dry air should keep it in check.

The shear is expected to lessen over the next couple of days allowing for better conditions.

[Evil Jeremy]

I never buy W bound named tropical system landfalls N of Vero Beach Florida to the Ga/SC line. I don't care what the models say.

If I may ask, why?

[Nederlander]

I never buy W bound named tropical system landfalls N of Vero Beach Florida to the Ga/SC line. I don't care what the models say.

If I may ask, why?

Probably because a lot of times, storms don't gain as much latitude as the models think or at least as quickly. Just my amateur observation..

[HURAKAN]

697
ABNT20 KNHC 181730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL SUPPORT
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE