
A few low-water crossings flooded around the city but for the most part ... just welcomed rain.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Portastorm wrote:Interesting snippet below from this afternoon's AFD out of NWS New Braunfels. I have seen those Euro runs and the mets are kidding ... next weekend could be quite a wet one for us in central and south Texas!
*****
LOOKING INTO LATE NEXT WEEKEND...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT COULD UNFOLD. THE ECMWF SHOWED EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FROM THE 12Z CYCLE YESTERDAY TO 00Z TODAY...TO 12Z
THIS MORNING SHOWING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS THIS
CYCLONE GETTING PICKED-UP BY A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN MOVING ACROSS MEXICO ON SUNDAY TOWARD
OUR AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT
IS LATER IN THE TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH 30 POPS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FOR NEXT SUNDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE CLIMO AND
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
.UPDATE...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF SAN ANTONIO RESULTED IN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS DEW
POINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WHERE INSOLATION WILL BE BEST. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL OTHERWISE PRECLUDE CONVECTION WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS
LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO
WASH OUT, THE EVENING WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET; HOWEVER, DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING ENERGY ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH BEGINNING TO ENHANCE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY. A BROAD AREA OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF
MEXICO SHOULD ENHANCE THIS RAIN POTENTIAL BY INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO AN AREA THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A DRY SLOT REGION.
THE TROPICAL PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LATER
PERIODS, SINCE A FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND COULD MAKE
FOR A CLASSIC OCTOBER HEAVY RAIN PATTERN. MANY UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE
STRENGTH, DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
somethingfunny wrote:Are the models all basing their rainfall predictions off an assumption that 91E will develop into something larger, or does it even matter when we're discussing moisture content?
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-010900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
355 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS TYPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
PATTERN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 10 INCHES.
THOSE WITH WEEKEND PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AND
PLAN AHEAD FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
Portastorm wrote:Looks like more rain on the way with a persistant shear zone overahead. Interesting to note that here in Austin, we're 8.82 inches above normal rainfall for the year. Also interesting to note that every year the Spurs have won the NBA title, a hurricane has hit Texas!
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