WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[cebuboy]

Close to the coast

Video at the landfall (Tugegarao, where eye passes) http://abs-cbnnews.com/video/nation/regions/10/03/09/typhoon-pepeng-starts-lashing-tugegarao. Almost zero visibility when walking in the road according to the reporter.

[cycloneye]

0900z JTWC Warning=80kts

WTPN33 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 122.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 122.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.7N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.4N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.9N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.1N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.8N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 121.8E.
TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. PARMA HAS MADE LANDFALL WITH THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF LUZON AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTLINE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. PARMA
IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO THE NORTH OF LUZON UNTIL 05/06Z IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY REINTENSIFY AS IT
PULLS FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF LAND. UPWELLING
OF RELATIVELY COOLER SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETARD
AGGRESSIVE RE-INTENSIFICATION, AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS
WITH TY 20W. AFTER TY 20W PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST, TY 19W WILL
FOLLOW SUIT (IN A NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION) AS THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST SLOWLY BUILDS BACK IN TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z,
040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[oaba09]

At least central luzon was spared....the worst we're experiencing here are occasional heavy rains...most of the time, it's just a drizzle.....

[cycloneye]

Eye is inland.

[HURAKAN]

Definitely the eye is inland

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 644
WTPQ21 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 18.1N 121.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM WEST 160NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 19.4N 121.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 050600UTC 20.1N 120.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 060600UTC 20.7N 120.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
NNNN




A lot of rain can be expected

[HURAKAN]

Rain rate

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=75kts

WTPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 121.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.0N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.6N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.7N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.7N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.2N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.9N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 121.6E.
TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[cycloneye]

First reports are of two killed as typhoon lashes northern Luzon.





MANILA, Philippines - Typhoon Parma slammed into the Philippines on Saturday, ripping off roofs, toppling power pylons and swelling rivers in the country's mountainous north. At least two people were killed, an official said.

The storm — the country's second in eight days — cut a path across the northeastern tip of the main island of Luzon and was headed in the direction of Taiwan, where evacuations of southern villages were under way.

The capital, Manila, escaped the worst of the storm. The city was still reeling from one on Sept. 26 that caused the worst flooding in four decades, killing at least 288 people and damaging the homes of 3 million more.

The provinces of Cagayan and Isabela were hardest hit Saturday by powerful winds and drenching rain, cutting some communications and roads to some towns.

"The damage is quite heavy," Cagayan police Chief Roberto Damian told ABC-CBN television. "We are clearing highways and roads to reach people calling for rescue."

In Isabela, one man drowned and another died from exposure to the cold and wet weather, said Lt. Col. Loreto Magundayao of an army division based in the province.

Many flee
Tens of thousands of people were moved to safe ground across the Philippines ahead of the typhoon, though officials said the threat of another national disaster eased as Parma changed course overnight Friday and bypassed the capital, parts of which are still chest-deep in floodwaters.

Trees were uprooted and power poles toppled in the provincial capital of Tuguegarao, Cagayan local government official Bonifacio Cuarteros told The Associated Press by telephone. Buildings had their roofs torn off. Similar damage was reported in neighboring Isabela.

Parma hit the coast packing sustained winds of 108 mph, though they weakened as the storm passed overland, the national weather bureau said.

Weather bureau chief Prisco Nilo warned that the heavy rain could trigger landslides and flooding, and strong winds could create tidal surges "similar to a tsunami" along the eastern coast.

After the storm changed course, officials began moving back tens of thousands of people who had been evacuated from coastal areas that might have been in the path of the storm.

Taiwan warning
Taiwan issued a storm warning and began moving people out of villages in the southern county of Kaohsiung, local official Lin Chun-chieh said. Flash floods from the last typhoon to hit the Kaohsiung area killed about 700 people in August.

The earlier storm to hit the Philippines, Ketsana, went on to hit other Southeast Asian countries, killing 99 in Vietnam, 14 in Cambodia and 16 in Laos.

It was part of more than a week of destruction in the Asia-Pacific region that has claimed more than 1,500 lives so far: an earthquake Wednesday in Indonesia; a tsunami Tuesday in the Samoan islands; and Typhoon Ketsana across Southeast Asia.

Another typhoon, Melor, was churning in the Philippine Sea, 1,600 miles to the east, threatening the U.S. territory of the Northern Mariana Islands.

Most businesses there were shut Saturday morning, and residents of the island of Saipan who don't live in concrete homes moved to typhoon shelters, said Charles Reyes, Northern Marianas Gov. Benigno Fitial's press secretary.

Typhoon Ketsana last month was part of more than a week of destruction in the Asia-Pacific region that has claimed more than 1,500 lives so far: an earthquake Wednesday in Indonesia; a tsunami Tuesday in the Samoan islands; and Typhoon Ketsana across Southeast Asia.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33135385/ns ... iapacific/

[supercane]

Any ground truth on winds or pressure or rain measurements?

supercane

[cycloneye]

I think that member Typhoon Hunter was going to chase Parma in northern Luzon.Lets see what data he has collected.Apart from him,I havent seen so far information of rainfall totals,maximum winds,and pressure.

[cycloneye]

Below is a big gallery of photos where you can see all of what these poor people are going thru.

Photo Gallery

[supercane]

BTW, has anyone ever tried parma = Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)? [Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-ce ... yname.html]

supercane

[cycloneye]

JMA 1800z Warning=65kts

TY 0917 (Parma)
Issued at 16:00 UTC, 3 October 2009
<Analyses at 03/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°30'(18.5°)
E121°10'(121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 04/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°00'(20.0°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 520km(280NM)

[RattleMan]

JMA 1800z Warning=65kts

???

WTPQ21 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 18.6N 120.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 20.1N 120.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 051800UTC 20.3N 120.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 061800UTC 19.6N 120.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[cycloneye]

2100z warning by JTWC=65kts

WTPN33 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 120.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 120.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.3N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.6N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.4N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.9N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.7N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 120.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 19W IS
STARTING TO EMERGE OVER WATER IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON AFTER HAVING
PASSED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM HAS
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, BUT STILL HAS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS
SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH 96. AFTER TAU 72, EITHER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA OR THE STR SOUTH OF
JAPAN WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE. JGSM, EGRR AND
NOGAPS FAVOR THE STR TO THE WEST OVER CHINA TO BUILD EASTWARD AFTER
TAU 72 AND THIS WILL SLOWLY START TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. GFDN, GFS, AND ECMWF DEPICT A SECOND, AND MORE LIKELY,
SCENARIO IN WHICH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS BEHIND THE
APPROACHING TY 20W AT TAU 96 AND STEERS 19W TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, THIS
FORECAST FAVORS IT BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE STEERING FLOW. A FURTHER
COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE PREDICTED DISTANCE BETWEEN TY
19W AND TY 20W AROUND TAU 48. THE SYSTEMS WILL BE APPROACHING A
SEPARATION DISTANCE THAT IS CONDUCIVE TO DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION
(DCI). BECAUSE 19W IS IN SUCH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, IT WILL
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DCI AND WILL LIKELY SEE A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS STILL AT TYPHOON INTENSITY,
BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON, BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOW-MOVING SYSTEMS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W
(MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Aslkahuna]

Typhoon Ruby in 1976 pulled a hard right after crossing northern Luzon which resulted in severe flooding from Central Luzon north.

Steve

[ozonepete]

As I was saying yesterday, these two looked like they might do the FUJIWHARA EFFECT. Now it's pretty certain. I'm a little surprised that the JTWC hasn't used the term, since it's definitely the proper name for it. Anyway, here's the link to the wikipedia entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
The one sentence "The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge."
is misleading, because that can only happen if one is much stronger than the other and atmospheric conditions are just right. But they straighten it out pretty well after that. The point they should have stressed is that when the two cyclones are near or at the same strength is when you see the maximum fujiwhara effect, where they rotate around their midpoint cyclonically until upper winds push them apart.

Anyway, these two are definitely going to start doing the fujiwhara within the next 12-24 hours. Since MELOR will be much stronger, we should expect PARMA to get pulled east much more than MELOR will go west. And since MELOR is stronger and will be closer to the stronger part of the upper southwesterlies, it will recurve pretty soon after the interaction anyway. But I wouldn't be surprised if it goes a little more west due to the interaction.

Here's the last JTWC prognosis reasoning where they talk about it:

WDPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TYPHOON HAS MADE LANDFALL WITH EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN LUZON, AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL
COASTLINE. THE ONLY REPORTING OBSERVATION SITE IN NORTHERN LUZON
(RPLI) HAD WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 KNOTS (GUSTING TO 32 KNOTS) AS
OF 1000Z. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS ALSO REPORTED AT 993 MB.
DVORAK VALUES FROM PGTW ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY AT 77 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO THE LUZON STRAIT AS A WEAKENED
SYSTEM, THOUGH GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
FACILITATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOW-
MOVING SYSTEMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MORE OR LESS STALL IN THE LUZON
STRAIT FOR THE NEXT 36 - 48 HOURS UNTIL RIDGING IS ABLE TO BUILD BACK
IN FROM THE EAST. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE TY
20W SUFFICIENTLY MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
C. A DEGREE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITH TY 20W, WHICH WILL BEND PARMA'S FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD AFTER TAU 48. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TY 20W WILL PUSH
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST, REORIENTING THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, AND ALLOWING RIDGING TO WORK BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THESE CHANGES WILL ALSO ALLOW PARMA TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 90
AND 100 KNOTS, BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM IS NOT UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

[theavocado]

As I was saying yesterday, these two looked like they might do the FUJIWHARA EFFECT. Now it's pretty certain. I'm a little surprised that the JTWC hasn't used the term, since it's definitely the proper name for it.

I think JTWC hasn't used the term because they don't think the two systems will orbit around each other. The systems will come close and Melor will effect Parma's track, but since they will not come close enough to orbit, Fujiwhara is not the correct term. In this case, the two correct terms are "Binary Interaction" or "Direct Cyclone Interaction".

[P.K.]

No longer a typhoon.

WTPQ21 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 18.7N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 20.1N 119.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 051800UTC 20.3N 120.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 061800UTC 19.6N 120.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =