ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[HURAKAN]

613
WHXX01 KWBC 061928
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1928 UTC TUE OCT 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE HENRI (AL102009) 20091006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091006 1800 091007 0600 091007 1800 091008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 53.4W 19.1N 56.4W 20.4N 59.0W 21.3N 60.7W
BAMD 17.7N 53.4W 19.3N 55.0W 20.8N 56.3W 21.9N 57.2W
BAMM 17.7N 53.4W 18.9N 55.6W 20.1N 57.3W 20.7N 59.0W
LBAR 17.7N 53.4W 19.5N 55.4W 21.6N 56.6W 23.5N 57.0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 39KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091008 1800 091009 1800 091010 1800 091011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 62.2W 22.1N 64.3W 20.8N 68.2W 20.1N 74.0W
BAMD 22.7N 57.7W 20.6N 58.0W 17.9N 61.8W 16.8N 66.2W
BAMM 21.4N 60.5W 20.6N 63.6W 19.1N 69.2W 18.2N 75.4W
LBAR 25.3N 55.5W 28.4N 46.8W 36.0N 43.3W 35.7N 39.6W
SHIP 36KTS 38KTS 48KTS 58KTS
DSHP 36KTS 38KTS 48KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 50.5W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 46.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

DISTURBANCE HENRI (AL102009) 20091006 1800 UTC

Henri is confirmed!

[fci]

2nd time in 48 hours we go from code yellow to special advisory code red to full advisories in 3 hours. Unbelievable. Completely amazing. Then again, when studying the tropics, one should never forget rule #1: Anything can happen.

who wrote the special advisory.. compared to who wrote the 2pm ?

That is a great question.
I know that this is science and therefore unpredictable, however when you read an outlook at 2 PM and it is less than 30% and within an hour or two the same agency decides it will name the system; that is odd.......

[wxman57]

What kind of track do you all think the NHC will churn out at 5? WSW bend at the end, or more of a turn to the north? Or will it even survive for 5 days?

I think there's a high probability it's back to a sheared, exposed system within 12-24 hours. However, by 48-72 hours it should slow down/stall, track slowly west for a bit then high pressure builds to its north, steering it SW-WSW. Possibly toward PR or the DR in 5 days. But there may not be much left to track by then.

[cycloneye]

57,you think that track by 72 may verifie? You know what part I am talking about.

[jlauderdal]

wait, i thought the models didn't develop it, i guess the koala bear post last night did the trick, no more grizzlies, pandas and polar bears rest of the season except my avatar of course

[caribepr]

What kind of track do you all think the NHC will churn out at 5? WSW bend at the end, or more of a turn to the north? Or will it even survive for 5 days?

I think there's a high probability it's back to a sheared, exposed system within 12-24 hours. However, by 48-72 hours it should slow down/stall, track slowly west for a bit then high pressure builds to its north, steering it SW-WSW. Possibly toward PR or the DR in 5 days. But there may not be much left to track by then.

Hoping the latter, that there isn't much to track...I'll be housesitting the same house I was in when we all were sure Omar was headed exactly toward us...I think I'm not letting them leave the island again in October. Not that I'm superstitious or anything like that...

[dixiebreeze]

Surprised that no Recon is scheduled yet.

[Blown Away]

wait, i thought the models didn't develop it, i guess the koala bear post last night did the trick, no more grizzlies, pandas and polar bears rest of the season except my avatar of course

jlauderdal, you nailed it! This bear was PO'd and was demanding Henri show himself.

[wxman57]

57,you think that track by 72 may verify? You know what part I am talking about.

Not sure what track you mean, cycloneye.

[cycloneye]

57,you think that track by 72 may verify? You know what part I am talking about.

Not sure what track you mean, cycloneye.

WSW to SW.

[IvanSurvivor]

Just checking in...don't have long to read back through posts...is this a TS now?

[ozonepete]

Henri! I guess a new thread opens now?

[wxman57]

57,you think that track by 72 may verify? You know what part I am talking about.

Not sure what track you mean, cycloneye.

WSW to SW.

Yes, definitely a good possibility.

On another note, the convection that quickly built over the center a few hours ago is now being stripped away again by shear. This thing's going to be like most of the other storms in that region - sheared and exposed most of the time.

[Evil Jeremy]

ozone, we keep the threads once a system becomes an invest until it's death, regardless of classification in between.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow Henri, just shows you never really know with the tropics.

[ozonepete]

On another note, the convection that quickly built over the center a few hours ago is now being stripped away again by shear. This thing's going to be like most of the other storms in that region - sheared and exposed most of the time.

Huh? What? The latest burst is right over the center.

[Emmett_Brown]

On another note, the convection that quickly built over the center a few hours ago is now being stripped away again by shear. This thing's going to be like most of the other storms in that region - sheared and exposed most of the time.

Huh? What? The latest burst is right over the center.

But you can see the CDO starting to shift to the NE in the last frame or 2. Soon to be sheared off. However, interesting that the shear seems to be blowing more from the S/SW now, like it is backing.

[wxman57]

On another note, the convection that quickly built over the center a few hours ago is now being stripped away again by shear. This thing's going to be like most of the other storms in that region - sheared and exposed most of the time.

Huh? What? The latest burst is right over the center.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 061945.jpg

I don't believe so. The center is moving WNW and the convection is fading of to the east.

[MGC]

Henri is a tiny system. Will likely battle shear which should hold Henri down.......MGC