EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

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Squarethecircle
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#201 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:11 pm

Microwave is very impressive:

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#202 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:14 pm

One of the most impressive microwaves I have ever seen! WOW
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#203 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:17 pm

It gets worse...T7.5 = 155 kt if that is the way it trends to...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 14:43:42 N Lon : 104:54:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 917.9mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.2 7.4 7.5
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#204 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:20 pm

Image

Raw power
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#205 Postby Cookie » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:24 pm

you just have to look at this system and admire the sheer beauty of it.

breath taking.
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#206 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:28 pm

HURAKAN wrote:One of the most impressive microwaves I have ever seen! WOW


I agree. Stunning symmetry.
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#207 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:28 pm

Quite an impressive hurricane. The most so far. I think it could hit 180 mph.
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#208 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:32 pm

Is it possible for it to hit 170 mph?
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#209 Postby Weather Watcher » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:47 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200920_sat.html#a_topad

This is impressive!!!
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:48 pm

Now supports 150 kt (175 mph).

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 14:51:32 N Lon : 105:07:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 914.8mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.3 7.4 7.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#211 Postby mcallum177 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:49 pm

Can someone please link the page with high resolution color images of this storm. I have one as my desktop from Choi-Wan and it is big enough to fit 1680x1050 resolution but I can't remember where I got it. It may have been this site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/

Thank You
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#212 Postby Weather Watcher » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:51 pm


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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#213 Postby Weather Watcher » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:57 pm

MSNBC Article...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33354624/ns/weather/
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#214 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:00 pm

Wow, with nighttime convective max coming up, you have to wonder where the top is for this one!
Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#215 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:00 pm

Weather Watcher wrote:MSNBC Article...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33354624/ns/weather/


It would get more publicity if it was in the Atlantic... But this one deserves alot.

Edit: Awesome loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/flash-vis.html
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#216 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:13 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 14:53:20 N Lon : 105:13:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 914.8mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.3 7.5 7.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.7T/24hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#217 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:25 pm

Image

A beast
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#218 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:31 pm

SSD dvorak:

18/0000 UTC 14.9N 105.3W T7.0/7.0 RICK -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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#219 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:37 pm

BT: a WHOPPER

EP, 20, 2009101800, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1053W, 150, 914, HU
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

#220 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:39 pm

Picking speed and that is not good as it will arrive at Baja without weakening too much.

WHXX01 KMIA 180036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091018 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091018 0000 091018 1200 091019 0000 091019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 105.3W 16.0N 108.6W 16.8N 111.5W 16.8N 114.2W
BAMD 14.9N 105.3W 15.8N 107.6W 16.9N 109.9W 17.8N 111.8W
BAMM 14.9N 105.3W 15.8N 107.9W 16.8N 110.4W 17.3N 112.5W
LBAR 14.9N 105.3W 15.8N 107.4W 16.8N 109.5W 17.7N 111.4W
SHIP 150KTS 159KTS 153KTS 140KTS
DSHP 150KTS 159KTS 153KTS 140KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091020 0000 091021 0000 091022 0000 091023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 116.0W 14.5N 114.7W 17.2N 108.5W 22.2N 105.5W
BAMD 18.7N 113.4W 19.6N 115.3W 19.6N 115.6W 21.4N 114.6W
BAMM 17.6N 114.0W 17.2N 114.2W 19.7N 110.8W 24.0N 109.7W
LBAR 18.6N 113.0W 21.0N 114.6W 24.5N 113.2W 27.4N 107.8W
SHIP 125KTS 98KTS 72KTS 54KTS
DSHP 125KTS 98KTS 72KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 105.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 102.5W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 100.4W
WNDCUR = 150KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 914MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 135NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 120NM

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