EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

#201 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:11 pm

Microwave is very impressive:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#202 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:14 pm

One of the most impressive microwaves I have ever seen! WOW
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#203 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:17 pm

It gets worse...T7.5 = 155 kt if that is the way it trends to...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 14:43:42 N Lon : 104:54:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 917.9mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.2 7.4 7.5
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#204 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:20 pm

Image

Raw power
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cookie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 477
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:13 am
Location: Isle Of lewis scotland

#205 Postby Cookie » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:24 pm

you just have to look at this system and admire the sheer beauty of it.

breath taking.
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#206 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:28 pm

HURAKAN wrote:One of the most impressive microwaves I have ever seen! WOW


I agree. Stunning symmetry.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5313
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#207 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:28 pm

Quite an impressive hurricane. The most so far. I think it could hit 180 mph.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15827
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#208 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:32 pm

Is it possible for it to hit 170 mph?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Weather Watcher
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2005 7:03 pm
Location: Wisconsin
Contact:
Contact Weather Watcher

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#209 Postby Weather Watcher » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:47 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200920_sat.html#a_topad

This is impressive!!!
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:48 pm

Now supports 150 kt (175 mph).

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 14:51:32 N Lon : 105:07:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 914.8mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.3 7.4 7.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes   
Top
mcallum177
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2009 12:39 am
Location: Dallas, TX

#211 Postby mcallum177 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:49 pm

Can someone please link the page with high resolution color images of this storm. I have one as my desktop from Choi-Wan and it is big enough to fit 1680x1050 resolution but I can't remember where I got it. It may have been this site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/

Thank You
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weather Watcher
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2005 7:03 pm
Location: Wisconsin
Contact:
Contact Weather Watcher

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#212 Postby Weather Watcher » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:51 pm


Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weather Watcher
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2005 7:03 pm
Location: Wisconsin
Contact:
Contact Weather Watcher

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#213 Postby Weather Watcher » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:57 pm

MSNBC Article...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33354624/ns/weather/
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#214 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:00 pm

Wow, with nighttime convective max coming up, you have to wonder where the top is for this one!
Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15827
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#215 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:00 pm

Weather Watcher wrote:MSNBC Article...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33354624/ns/weather/


It would get more publicity if it was in the Atlantic... But this one deserves alot.

Edit: Awesome loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/flash-vis.html
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#216 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:13 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 14:53:20 N Lon : 105:13:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 914.8mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.3 7.5 7.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.7T/24hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#217 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:25 pm

Image

A beast
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143869
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

#218 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:31 pm

SSD dvorak:

18/0000 UTC 14.9N 105.3W T7.0/7.0 RICK -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#219 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:37 pm

BT: a WHOPPER

EP, 20, 2009101800, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1053W, 150, 914, HU
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143869
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

#220 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:39 pm

Picking speed and that is not good as it will arrive at Baja without weakening too much.

WHXX01 KMIA 180036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091018 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091018 0000 091018 1200 091019 0000 091019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 105.3W 16.0N 108.6W 16.8N 111.5W 16.8N 114.2W
BAMD 14.9N 105.3W 15.8N 107.6W 16.9N 109.9W 17.8N 111.8W
BAMM 14.9N 105.3W 15.8N 107.9W 16.8N 110.4W 17.3N 112.5W
LBAR 14.9N 105.3W 15.8N 107.4W 16.8N 109.5W 17.7N 111.4W
SHIP 150KTS 159KTS 153KTS 140KTS
DSHP 150KTS 159KTS 153KTS 140KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091020 0000 091021 0000 091022 0000 091023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 116.0W 14.5N 114.7W 17.2N 108.5W 22.2N 105.5W
BAMD 18.7N 113.4W 19.6N 115.3W 19.6N 115.6W 21.4N 114.6W
BAMM 17.6N 114.0W 17.2N 114.2W 19.7N 110.8W 24.0N 109.7W
LBAR 18.6N 113.0W 21.0N 114.6W 24.5N 113.2W 27.4N 107.8W
SHIP 125KTS 98KTS 72KTS 54KTS
DSHP 125KTS 98KTS 72KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 105.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 102.5W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 100.4W
WNDCUR = 150KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 914MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 135NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 120NM

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests