Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[Derek Ortt]

0Z GFS, however, is showing something

That said, no development until Saturday if that solution verifies

[Derek Ortt]

in addition, the GFS is showing a SW shear pattern over the WC when this gets going. Conditions may not favor anything more than a weak cyclone, which would be more inline with el nino seasons. I'd go with that for now and discount the CMC/ECMWF

[Sanibel]

Looks like something is trying to curl up down there.

[boca]

The 00GFS run has this system sitting between the Yucatan and the Cayman Islands just sitting down there. Because of the time of year I think Florida might be dealing with this system rather than Cental America.On the flip side theirs a 1020mb high sitting over Kentucky and West Virginia which would cause resistence of it moving N or NE. This was at 180hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180m.gif

I'm surprised gatorcane would normally be all over this especially by this systems looks.

[MWatkins]

Looks like the NHC is starting to warm up to the idea that this system could develop in the next few days.

My guess is this could become an Irene scenario down the road. A slow, spread out system that produces lots of rain (at least).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

MW

[jlauderdal]

Looks like something is trying to curl up down there.

that's what should happen this time of night, curl up and go to sleep

[cycloneye]

I am surprised that nobody posted the 00z run of the ECMWF.It shows a tropical storm moving thru South Florida.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[HURAKAN]

24 hours


48 hours


72 hours


Not much movement

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS joins the other models showing some development.This is the 00z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

NHC does not think it's going to push into Central America. NHC seems to think it drifts northward leaning more with the ECMWF solution.

Question now becomes how much does it develop?

[cycloneye]

Is invest 94L so thread is locked.

Go to the 94L thread at link below.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106890&p=1934614#p1934614