
Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.
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drdavisjr wrote:
Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.
cycloneye wrote:Both JMA and JTWC miss Manila but remember the windfield and the area of rain is big and the Philliphines dont need another rain event.
drdavisjr wrote:cycloneye wrote:Both JMA and JTWC miss Manila but remember the windfield and the area of rain is big and the Philliphines dont need another rain event.
Yes, this looks like trouble anyway you spell it.
drdavisjr wrote:
Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.
oaba09 wrote:Multiagency
dexterlabio wrote:oaba09 wrote:Multiagency
seems that jtwc's forecast track for mirinae is above the other agencies.
i am currently viewing the latest sat animation of mirinae and it looks like going west in a straight manner. i dunno if my eyes are deceived by it seems to be like that. some sat images show an eye-like feature for mirinae.
drdavisjr wrote:Look at this closely for the 31st and 1st.
Coordinates show continue wsw slightly but map shows wnw slightly...
which one is correct?
<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°40'(15.7°)
E142°20'(142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E136°05'(136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 520km(280NM)
<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E120°40'(120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)
drdavisjr wrote:Look at this closely for the 31st and 1st.
Coordinates show continue wsw slightly but map shows wnw slightly...
HURAKAN wrote:drdavisjr wrote:Look at this closely for the 31st and 1st.
Coordinates show continue wsw slightly but map shows wnw slightly...
The problem is that the map is not planar. So, it may look like it's moving wnw but it's moving west or wsw. Notice that the points get closer to 15°N than to 20°N.
metenthusiast wrote:Is this from JMA? I think the map they're using is represented spherically like a globe.
HURAKAN wrote:The problem is that the map is not planar. So, it may look like it's moving wnw but it's moving west or wsw. Notice that the points get closer to 15°N than to 20°N.
metenthusiast wrote:drdavisjr wrote:
Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.
Good evening guys! (Good morning to our friends in the west!). I think it wouldn't matter much whether it would hit Metro Manila directly or not. Based on what I read, this system would intensify into a 115-knot storm before it hits land due to the favorable condition the Philippine Sea would give it. By the time it makes it westward march across the island of Luzon, it has already gained strength that I'm sure won't dissipate that quickly. And the rest I'm leaving to your imagination.
No. I think it's not a question of where and when exactly it would hit anymore. The real question would be as to how we would weather it out.
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