WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#461 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:32 am

Image

Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145343
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#462 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:32 am

TPPN10 PGTW 271218

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 27/1130Z

C. 15.6N

D. 142.2E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0750Z 15.4N 143.3E SSMI
27/0810Z 15.5N 143.2E SSMS


SMITH
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#463 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:33 am

5 day forecast

Image
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#464 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:34 am

drdavisjr wrote:Image

Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.


The eye will miss us but the rest of the system won't :(
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145343
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#465 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:34 am

Both JMA and JTWC miss Manila but remember the windfield and the area of rain is big and the Philliphines dont need another rain event.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#466 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:37 am

Multiagency

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#467 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:42 am

cycloneye wrote:Both JMA and JTWC miss Manila but remember the windfield and the area of rain is big and the Philliphines dont need another rain event.


Yes, this looks like trouble anyway you spell it.
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#468 Postby Frank2 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:42 am

The WPAC is having an Atlantic basin 2005 type of season - very bad...

Frank
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#469 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:42 am

drdavisjr wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Both JMA and JTWC miss Manila but remember the windfield and the area of rain is big and the Philliphines dont need another rain event.


Yes, this looks like trouble anyway you spell it.


In addition, the landfall area is quite near to metro manila.
0 likes   

User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#470 Postby metenthusiast » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:43 am

drdavisjr wrote:Image

Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.


Good evening guys! (Good morning to our friends in the west! :D ). I think it wouldn't matter much whether it would hit Metro Manila directly or not. Based on what I read, this system would intensify into a 115-knot storm before it hits land due to the favorable condition the Philippine Sea would give it. By the time it makes it westward march across the island of Luzon, it has already gained strength that I'm sure won't dissipate that quickly. And the rest I'm leaving to your imagination.

No. I think it's not a question of where and when exactly it would hit anymore. The real question would be as to how we would weather it out.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#471 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:46 am

oaba09 wrote:Multiagency

Image


seems that jtwc's forecast track for mirinae is above the other agencies.

i am currently viewing the latest sat animation of mirinae and it looks like going west in a straight manner. i dunno if my eyes are deceived but it seems to be like that. some sat images show an eye-like feature for mirinae.
Last edited by dexterlabio on Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#472 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:47 am

dexterlabio wrote:
oaba09 wrote:Multiagency

Image


seems that jtwc's forecast track for mirinae is above the other agencies.

i am currently viewing the latest sat animation of mirinae and it looks like going west in a straight manner. i dunno if my eyes are deceived by it seems to be like that. some sat images show an eye-like feature for mirinae.


I'm also seeing an eye so you're not imagining things :D
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#473 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:51 am

^ Haha :) but jtwc still reports a 45kts intensity. for a system to have an eye-like feature, it has to reach almost typhoon intensity, maybe 55kts or more. Maybe it still appears to be weaker because of its size and soon-to-be-develop circulation.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:

#474 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:53 am

Look at this closely for the 31st and 1st.

Coordinates show continue wsw slightly but map shows wnw slightly...

which one is correct?

<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°40'(15.7°)
E142°20'(142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E136°05'(136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E120°40'(120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#475 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:56 am

the coordinates are correct moving west to wsw. i didn't notice the one in the map though.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:

Re:

#476 Postby metenthusiast » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:58 am

drdavisjr wrote:Look at this closely for the 31st and 1st.

Coordinates show continue wsw slightly but map shows wnw slightly...

which one is correct?

<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°40'(15.7°)
E142°20'(142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E136°05'(136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E120°40'(120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)


Is this from JMA? I think the map they're using is represented spherically like a globe.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re:

#477 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:59 am

drdavisjr wrote:Look at this closely for the 31st and 1st.

Coordinates show continue wsw slightly but map shows wnw slightly...


The problem is that the map is not planar. So, it may look like it's moving wnw but it's moving west or wsw. Notice that the points get closer to 15°N than to 20°N.
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: Re:

#478 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:03 am

HURAKAN wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:Look at this closely for the 31st and 1st.

Coordinates show continue wsw slightly but map shows wnw slightly...


The problem is that the map is not planar. So, it may look like it's moving wnw but it's moving west or wsw. Notice that the points get closer to 15°N than to 20°N.


Yup...this also confused me the 1st time I saw the JMA website...I believe they represent the map like a globe so you need to tilt your head a little to the right in order to see the map correctly...
0 likes   

User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:

Re: Re:

#479 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:03 am

metenthusiast wrote:Is this from JMA? I think the map they're using is represented spherically like a globe.

HURAKAN wrote:The problem is that the map is not planar. So, it may look like it's moving wnw but it's moving west or wsw. Notice that the points get closer to 15°N than to 20°N.


Ok, I see this now. Thanks for pointing it out. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
JTE50
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 336
Age: 67
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:48 am
Location: Pensacola
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#480 Postby JTE50 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:06 am

metenthusiast wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:Image

Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.


Good evening guys! (Good morning to our friends in the west! :D ). I think it wouldn't matter much whether it would hit Metro Manila directly or not. Based on what I read, this system would intensify into a 115-knot storm before it hits land due to the favorable condition the Philippine Sea would give it. By the time it makes it westward march across the island of Luzon, it has already gained strength that I'm sure won't dissipate that quickly. And the rest I'm leaving to your imagination.

No. I think it's not a question of where and when exactly it would hit anymore. The real question would be as to how we would weather it out.


I agree, it's looking more and more likely a Philippine hit - especially if it's moves south of west. The only good part about the track is it won't be crawling along and dumping a lot more rain - well, that's the way it looks right now. I suppose it's impossible to get to the eastern coast with that mountain range in the way correct?
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests