ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.3N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

[KWT]

We've seen that happen before with these systems before however we shall see, timing is as per normal very important with regards to whether the system beats the increasing shear into the southern gulf or not. If it doesn't then unless it does get scooted off to the NE its going to be destroyed thats for sure.

[cycloneye]

[ozonepete]

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.3N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

Sounds right to me.

[ozonepete]

BTW, anyone notice that the graph says N at 5mph while the advisory says NNW at 3?

[KWT]

Interesting that the NHC are still showing that bend to the NNW/NW again in a few days time, will be interesting to see if that actually occurs.

[cycloneye]

BTW, anyone notice that the graph says N at 5mph while the advisory says NNW at 3?

I just noticed that.Maybe a glitch?

[MGC]

Only time will tell if Ida survives CA. I still think it will. Ida still has a pretty decent cloud pattern despite being inland for a while now. Key will be how far Ida moves west. A west component will prolong the time over land. As long as a decent mid level circulation remains intact the cyclone should survive the trek across CA. Interesting but NWS Slidell has issued a coastal flood statement as tides are expected to increase due to strong winds caused by the pressure gradient between Ida and high pressure to our NE. SE Louisiana in now in the 5 day cone, kinda weird for November. Thankfully this is not August...MGC

[ozonepete]

It looks like it may be going due north now - if so, that's obviously not good.

[Blown Away]

The NHC has been shifting the short term track slightly to the east with each advisory and this will keep more of the circulation envelope over water and the center will spend less time over land.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/gr ... 5NLW.shtml

[HURAKAN]

BIG DIFFERENCE

West - Yesterday 10 AM

East - Now 4 PM

[Decomdoug]

With the slight shift to the east, I wonder how long before the Florida media frenzy cranks up.

[CourierPR]

With the slight shift to the east, I wonder how long before the Florida media frenzy cranks up.

Yes, last night on NBC6 in Miami, local Met John Gerard said Ida needed to be watched. Usually he goes in the opposite direction regarding possible threats from storms.

[cycloneye]

BIG DIFFERENCE

West - Yesterday 10 AM

East - Now 4 PM

To add about the track east shift,if it moves more faster it will spend much less time over land.

[Blown Away]

Yep, yesterday's track had Ida coming offshore on Sunday. Ida could be offshore tomorrow evening.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 120 hours.



150 hours.Almost at the same area.

[ozonepete]

Nice RGB image here. The eye is plainly visible so it'll be easier to track movement. But watch out for wobbles. Even eyes in weaker storms like this can wobble when they're over land due to frictional effects.

[TexasF6]

Texas has issued a coastal flood advisory as well....expecting that blob to develop I guess.......very very interesting.....especially this late in the game.....

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS never gets Ida out of the Caribbean and pushes her back south

[ozonepete]

Boy is this moving slowly! But it looks like it's going almost due north.