ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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tpr1967
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1081 Postby tpr1967 » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:22 pm

I would think more likely 1988 keith.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim08.gif
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1082 Postby drezee » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:22 pm

I am looking for a system structured like Earl. A hybrid type system that hit Florida with widespread 40kt winds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(1998)
Last edited by drezee on Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1083 Postby KWT » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:23 pm

Yeah Wxman57 I think it may well be going extra-tropical even if its not absorbed before then.

Still I think its got a decent circulation still and convection is clearly bursting offshore so no reason to think it can't strengthen, though from now on I think it'll remain lopsided.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1084 Postby ozonepete » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm beginning to think that there may not be much left of Ida when it reaches FL. It may well be absorbed by the approaching frontal boundary and the larger low along the front. Shear will be quite high in the Gulf.


Unless it gets merged rather than gets absorbed. In that case you can get a powerful hybrid where shear doesn't matter.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1085 Postby ROCK » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Again, the GFDL and HWRF are showing a loopsided system with most of the winds and storms to the Northwest, a loop will effect more people before weakening

Image

Image


Ivanhater I would be shocked if it comes anywhere close to the Panhandle. In fact, you will likely be on the dry side and see basically no weather from this.



Gator, attm the model consensus would suggest the NGOM will see some sort of effects from IDA or ET-IDA...So will the Northern part of FL, in some respects, as the moisture is ejected NE with the front. If I had to say right now, I highly doubt SFL will see any effects from IDA not the NGOM.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1086 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:26 pm

ozonepete wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm beginning to think that there may not be much left of Ida when it reaches FL. It may well be absorbed by the approaching frontal boundary and the larger low along the front. Shear will be quite high in the Gulf.


Unless it gets merged rather than gets absorbed. In that case you can get a powerful hybrid where shear doesn't matter.


Looking at the models(being lopsided to the NW) and reading the AFD's, it looks to be a very windy and rainy start to the week for the Northern Gulfcoast with the interaction of Ida and the BOC low.

Yeah Ozone, the models including the recent run of the Euro seem to indicate, this could merge with the BOC low and front and become extratropical
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1087 Postby ROCK » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:29 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Exactly Rock, I went back and looked at all the models, and they all are lopsided to the NW approaching the northern gulfcoast before looping, It has to be the interaction with the BOC low.

BTW, you might want to go look at the 12z Nogaps, pretty entertaining for your area. Loops in the Western Gulf then heads north again strengthening



Ivan, yeah that is a funny run but no way IDA gets that far west :lol: :lol: ....LA is about as far west as she will get before looping and then heading NE....she is going to be a sheared mess if she is hanging around in the GOM for a loop....
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Re:

#1088 Postby artist » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:31 pm

Decomdoug wrote:As a TS it could be benifical. Southeast central coast has been shortchanged again this summer in the rainfall department.

I was just thinking this. We had plenty early summer, but the continued heat for so long really dried things up around here much more than usual. If it comes this way, I hope it is just some brisk winds and rain.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1089 Postby ROCK » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:32 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Tampa and eastward is the most likely area to be affected by Ida's remains.
As I said before in another post it's November folks that's where it should go.
Of course this is just my opinion and we all know the tropics can do some crazing
things at times.


ok we should all throw out all model runs and use the Clipper!!! :lol: :lol:
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#1090 Postby Crostorm » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:37 pm

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#1091 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:38 pm

Its looking more like it will start to strengthen quite a bit tonight.. and again if this becomes a hurricane or even a strong tropical storm extra tropical transition takes time and depending of if it stalls or not will determine it that will happen prior to landfall. right with its forward speed and timing the trough will likely pick it up. the models are too slow with it.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1092 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:38 pm

The models performance in recent years has been pretty good but with that being said there have been a couple of big busts when forecasting storms in the Western Caribbean late in the season. Mitch in 1998 and Irene in 1999 in particular come to mind. Let's hope the models have a handle on the situation but I'll feel a lot better when Ida either dissipates or is headed of into the North Atlantic TC graveyard...Just some food for thought...

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1093 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:40 pm

Definitly is just offshore now.

Image
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1094 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:41 pm

Convection starting to pop again!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
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#1095 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:41 pm

It "looks" like Ida maybe is already taking more of northerly to NNE motion as she comes offshore.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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Re:

#1096 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Its looking more like it will start to strengthen quite a bit tonight.. and again if this becomes a hurricane or even a strong tropical storm extra tropical transition takes time and depending of if it stalls or not will determine it that will happen prior to landfall. right with its forward speed and timing the trough will likely pick it up. the models are too slow with it.

Except the Euro is the fastest taking it into the NCGC, however, it looks to becoming extratropical
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#1097 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:42 pm

I said earlier it would probably make it offshore between 4 and 8 pm .. but clearly its offshore ahead of that and NHC which had it at 9pm tonight..
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1098 Postby tolakram » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:45 pm

Maybe. Is there a well defined LLC left? I'm having a real hard time finding it. Looks to me the upper level winds may have blown the mid level north of whatever is left of the LLC.
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#1099 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:46 pm

That convection has just been waiting for the LCC to return. Now that Ida is off land (earlier than expected. Much earlier), it will be interesting to see what happens next. Will the fabled NW movement occur soon if at all?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1100 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:47 pm

tolakram wrote:Maybe. Is there a well defined LLC left? I'm having a real hard time finding it. Looks to me the upper level winds may have blown the mid level north of whatever is left of the LLC.


I would not say it is well defined for tropical cyclones overall, but compared to TDs, other storms this year, and storms inland for about 24 hours, I would consider the LLC to be well defined.
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