ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
I am looking for a system structured like Earl. A hybrid type system that hit Florida with widespread 40kt winds.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(1998)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(1998)
Last edited by drezee on Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Yeah Wxman57 I think it may well be going extra-tropical even if its not absorbed before then.
Still I think its got a decent circulation still and convection is clearly bursting offshore so no reason to think it can't strengthen, though from now on I think it'll remain lopsided.
Still I think its got a decent circulation still and convection is clearly bursting offshore so no reason to think it can't strengthen, though from now on I think it'll remain lopsided.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
wxman57 wrote:I'm beginning to think that there may not be much left of Ida when it reaches FL. It may well be absorbed by the approaching frontal boundary and the larger low along the front. Shear will be quite high in the Gulf.
Unless it gets merged rather than gets absorbed. In that case you can get a powerful hybrid where shear doesn't matter.
0 likes
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models
gatorcane wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Again, the GFDL and HWRF are showing a loopsided system with most of the winds and storms to the Northwest, a loop will effect more people before weakening
Ivanhater I would be shocked if it comes anywhere close to the Panhandle. In fact, you will likely be on the dry side and see basically no weather from this.
Gator, attm the model consensus would suggest the NGOM will see some sort of effects from IDA or ET-IDA...So will the Northern part of FL, in some respects, as the moisture is ejected NE with the front. If I had to say right now, I highly doubt SFL will see any effects from IDA not the NGOM.
0 likes
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11161
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
ozonepete wrote:wxman57 wrote:I'm beginning to think that there may not be much left of Ida when it reaches FL. It may well be absorbed by the approaching frontal boundary and the larger low along the front. Shear will be quite high in the Gulf.
Unless it gets merged rather than gets absorbed. In that case you can get a powerful hybrid where shear doesn't matter.
Looking at the models(being lopsided to the NW) and reading the AFD's, it looks to be a very windy and rainy start to the week for the Northern Gulfcoast with the interaction of Ida and the BOC low.
Yeah Ozone, the models including the recent run of the Euro seem to indicate, this could merge with the BOC low and front and become extratropical
0 likes
Michael
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Exactly Rock, I went back and looked at all the models, and they all are lopsided to the NW approaching the northern gulfcoast before looping, It has to be the interaction with the BOC low.
BTW, you might want to go look at the 12z Nogaps, pretty entertaining for your area. Loops in the Western Gulf then heads north again strengthening
Ivan, yeah that is a funny run but no way IDA gets that far west


0 likes
Re:
Decomdoug wrote:As a TS it could be benifical. Southeast central coast has been shortchanged again this summer in the rainfall department.
I was just thinking this. We had plenty early summer, but the continued heat for so long really dried things up around here much more than usual. If it comes this way, I hope it is just some brisk winds and rain.
0 likes
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models
Stormcenter wrote:Tampa and eastward is the most likely area to be affected by Ida's remains.
As I said before in another post it's November folks that's where it should go.
Of course this is just my opinion and we all know the tropics can do some crazing
things at times.
ok we should all throw out all model runs and use the Clipper!!!


0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Its looking more like it will start to strengthen quite a bit tonight.. and again if this becomes a hurricane or even a strong tropical storm extra tropical transition takes time and depending of if it stalls or not will determine it that will happen prior to landfall. right with its forward speed and timing the trough will likely pick it up. the models are too slow with it.
0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models
The models performance in recent years has been pretty good but with that being said there have been a couple of big busts when forecasting storms in the Western Caribbean late in the season. Mitch in 1998 and Irene in 1999 in particular come to mind. Let's hope the models have a handle on the situation but I'll feel a lot better when Ida either dissipates or is headed of into the North Atlantic TC graveyard...Just some food for thought...
SFT
SFT
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145358
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Definitly is just offshore now.

0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10147
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6684
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
It "looks" like Ida maybe is already taking more of northerly to NNE motion as she comes offshore.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
0 likes
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11161
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Its looking more like it will start to strengthen quite a bit tonight.. and again if this becomes a hurricane or even a strong tropical storm extra tropical transition takes time and depending of if it stalls or not will determine it that will happen prior to landfall. right with its forward speed and timing the trough will likely pick it up. the models are too slow with it.
Except the Euro is the fastest taking it into the NCGC, however, it looks to becoming extratropical
0 likes
Michael
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Maybe. Is there a well defined LLC left? I'm having a real hard time finding it. Looks to me the upper level winds may have blown the mid level north of whatever is left of the LLC.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
That convection has just been waiting for the LCC to return. Now that Ida is off land (earlier than expected. Much earlier), it will be interesting to see what happens next. Will the fabled NW movement occur soon if at all?
0 likes
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
tolakram wrote:Maybe. Is there a well defined LLC left? I'm having a real hard time finding it. Looks to me the upper level winds may have blown the mid level north of whatever is left of the LLC.
I would not say it is well defined for tropical cyclones overall, but compared to TDs, other storms this year, and storms inland for about 24 hours, I would consider the LLC to be well defined.
0 likes
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests