ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
NEXRAD
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 370
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:05 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1241 Postby NEXRAD » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:42 pm

Rainband,

The Euro and CMC seem to really deepen Ida (maybe Ida + the Bay of Campeche low). The GFS seems a bit more laid-back with the system and looks a bit more realistic to me. The latest HWRF and GFDL are also less aggressive than they were yesterday. I won't speculate on the model intensities as translating low resolution model pressure fields into something like a system intensity, especially what looks like a hybrid system, is rather guess work, to me (esp. at 4... 5 days out).

ericinmia wrote:
NEXRAD wrote:Per the HPC, apparently the Euro has been persistent in this Bay of Campeche low and there exists some evidence supporting this model. If the Bay of Campeche low develops, though, I'd lean towards anticipating Ida to shear-out owing to the non-tropical low's dominance. The models might be merging the two systems and showing (perhaps correctly) a hybrid scenario unfolding. Though, still, I am skeptical of some of the intensities I'm seeing.

- Jay
South Florida



Would that change though if IDA were to get her act together in the next 24hrs as none of the models in question show? It makes sense to me that if IDA were to get to lets say a cat1-2, which is well beyond what those global models see in comparison to the BOC low... would the BOC low still have an strong influence over it?
Thanks,
-Eric


If the Bay of Campeche low develops as intense as the Euro seems to show, then that low will definitely have significant impact on Ida regardless of the storm intensity. As Derek mentioned, though, the Bay of Campeche low hasn't really come together yet. The HPC seems to be leaning towards a weaker low in this region, too. Overall, my general sense with this feature, Ida, and the forth-coming weather pattern (i.e. incoming frontal boundary with shortwave aloft) is that we're looking at a future hybrid system.

- Jay
South Florida
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1242 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:44 pm

yeah gfdl 100 kt hurricane in southern gulf.. hmmmm

has it at a hurricane in 72 hours while still in the carribean though .. Im not sure im buying it still being in the carribean in 72 hrs..
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1243 Postby Sanibel » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:45 pm

There's a second level in the convection starting to curve in. This is probably starting to realign its gears and should come together fast if it is going to.


The red IR pop is the shear displaced central convection.


I'm seeing east of guidance right now and NNE unless it is satellite illusion. :eek:
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1244 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:46 pm

same thing with the HWRF.. .. weird.. they keep seeing the upper environment improving.. its farther east and then dives it se briefly before turning back ene .. or so last couple frames
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1245 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z GFDL does a loop in the GOM as a cat 2.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


The GFDL is not moving as far N before the loop/stall. I still think these models are sending this system to far north.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1246 Postby ozonepete » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:48 pm

Sanibel wrote:There's a second level in the convection starting to curve in. This is probably starting to realign its gears and should come together fast if it is going to.


The red IR pop is the shear displaced central convection.


I'm seeing east of guidance right now and NNE unless it is satellite illusion. :eek:


That's what I was saying just recently. I see an NNE move.
0 likes   

ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1247 Postby ericinmia » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:50 pm

With things being as complex as they are...

Watch the solution end up being a lot more simple and direct than the models are predicting.
I am not a believer in the loops.... Ida is going to go somewhere and then get shredded to pieces as she merges with the front. (Just my opinion)
-Eric
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1248 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:53 pm

GFS 96 hours shear forecast.. upper ridge slightly builds over it.. hmmm...

Image
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1249 Postby Sanibel » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:55 pm

I'm still seeing a kaboom pretty soon in shape and behavior. Storm has gone from strength in outer bands to inner CDO in little time.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1250 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:56 pm

I cant believe the HWRF maintains a hurricane through the whole 5 days sitting just SW tampa.. lol its normally fairly conservative..
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1251 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:58 pm

ericinmia wrote:With things being as complex as they are...

Watch the solution end up being a lot more simple and direct than the models are predicting.
I am not a believer in the loops.... Ida is going to go somewhere and then get shredded to pieces as she merges with the front. (Just my opinion)
-Eric


I agree, I would not be surprised to see Ida enter the GOM slow down as the front approaches and then begin to move NE ahead of the front. The further N Ida goes in the GOM the more shear she will encounter, but if Ida begins a NE turn in the southern GOM Ida could be in a more favorable upper air environment.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 50
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1252 Postby Crostorm » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:59 pm

Image
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1253 Postby Sanibel » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:01 pm

That red IR to the south side in crostorm's image is the convection wrapping back in behind the south center.


This thing is telling us it is go time for take-off.
0 likes   

southmdwatcher
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:35 am

#1254 Postby southmdwatcher » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:02 pm

So, assuming that Ida tracks a bit to the east of the NHC guidance as it looks to be doing at this moment, that would keep the path of Ida over the best deep warm waters in the NW Carribean near Cuba for a longer period of time?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#1255 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:03 pm

Then there is the Nogaps..

lol hurricane NW gulf ..... 84 hr 18z perfect example why the models are out the window right now.. once this gets some strength back im sure they will start to do better...

Image

its hard to see here but nogaps has a pretty decent upper ridge over almost the whole gulf at 84 hrs..

i guess the only consensus is for some kind of a upper ridge developing somewhere in the gulf..

Green lines are the shear ..

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#1256 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:05 pm

What I'm wondering is, what would a more easterly track do for a landfall? Would that shove it more north or south?
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#1257 Postby Sanibel » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:07 pm

I'd wait before assuming it is east of track. It could still be close the NHC track. Satellites often give a wrong impression of track and the shortwave loop shows it could be close to NHC track still.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#1258 Postby ozonepete » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:14 pm

AdamFirst wrote:What I'm wondering is, what would a more easterly track do for a landfall? Would that shove it more north or south?


I agree with Sanibel that it's too early to tell if it really is going a little more east. But to answer your question, if it is, then it would be logical to think western Cuba and southern Florida would be more vulnerable.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1259 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:17 pm

The near by buoy ....interesting ... winds are increasing substantially nearly TS force.. quite a bit away from the center.. ( one minute average ) pressure about 1009 ... about 150 miles from the center..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1260 Postby KWT » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:19 pm

Certainly doesn't look too bad at the moment, as Derek said once it gets clear of land totally then conditions at the moment really don't look too bad...though I'll give it another 12hrs before really getting a good feel on the situation.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests