ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

ocala · #1481 Postby **ocala** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:14 am

You guys are better versed in TS then me but could we get an eye pretty soon?

#1482 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:16 am

ocala wrote:You guys are better versed in TS then me but could we get an eye pretty soon?

i would be surprised if we dont have an eye at some point today, when that would be who knows but its well on its way

robbielyn · #1483 Postby **robbielyn** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:16 am

cycloneye wrote:
robbielyn wrote::( AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. AS IDA TRACKS NORTH OUT OF
THE CARRIBEAN BY SUNDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO RAISE SKY
COVER A BIT EACH DAY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE SHIELD OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN H5 RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ATOP FLORIDA. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND THE ACTUAL H8
TEMPERATURES THE MAV MOS SEEMED TO BE TOO HIGH ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD AND SO WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CLARITY THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. WITH IDA CURRENTLY IN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...A NORTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE
GOMEX AS A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BY NHC. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL PATH OF IDA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL TRACKS A
LITTLE MORE WEST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.

I merged the topic that you made with the main discussion thread of Ida as only threads for Invest and Tropical Cyclones are allowed in this forum.

Oops my bad :oops:

jinftl · #1484 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:17 am

Ida is moving over the highest tchp (tropical cyclone heat potential) region...this could be high-octane fuel for her

#1485 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:18 am

Oops my bad

Thats ok,no problem.

#1486 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:21 am

It's not an eye, it's an overshooting top.

#1487 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:22 am

But an eye is forming.

#1488 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:24 am

HURAKAN wrote:

But an eye is forming.

Impressive.They may have to bump winds to 55-60kts at 10 AM.

#1489 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:25 am

HURAKAN wrote:It's not an eye, it's an overshooting top.

who said it was an eye?

#1490 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:26 am

#1491 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:27 am

12 UTC Best Track

In line with SSD Dvorak,45kts.

AL, 11, 2009110712, , BEST, 0, 174N, 841W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Looks like that center is east of 84W by a few degrees?

#1492 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:32 am

GFS windshear forecast ..not good

#1493 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:35 am

jlauderdal wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:It's not an eye, it's an overshooting top.

who said it was an eye?

cycloneye wrote:First visible image.Eye feature trying to pop out?

Macrocane · #1494 Postby **Macrocane** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:35 am

Ivanhater wrote: GFS windshear forecast ..not good

Not good for Ida or for the people in the gulf?

#1495 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:36 am

06z GFS

#1496 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:40 am

Macrocane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote: GFS windshear forecast ..not good

Not good for Ida or for the people in the gulf?

The windshear forecast for the gulf according to the GFS has backed off significant shear in the gulf. At 66 hours, when Ida is nearing the north central gulfcoast, windshear is light

#1497 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:42 am

Popping

#1498 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:47 am

Ivan, looks this morning that a consensus is starting to gain favor of a Panhandle landfall or very near close before any loop takes place. I can see a 40-60mph wind with this but I would doubt anything stronger. I'm also thinking with the front approaching and the changing wind directions with height that this could have a higher threat of Tornadoes/Waterspouts.

artist · #1499 Postby **artist** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:48 am

cycloneye wrote:The mission for today was supposed to haved been in the air since 6:15 AM EST.But still no obs yet.Maybe,they will depart from a base much closer,Homestead base?

would make more sense so they could fly longer in the storm itself

#1500 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:50 am

Ivanhater wrote:GFS windshear forecast ..not good

IF** that map is correct then the GFS not only is telling you where it thinks she is going, but saying look out as well!

ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Re: Tampa discussion. Not making a big deal at all on Ida

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Re: Re:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

Who is online