ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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ocala
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1481 Postby ocala » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:14 am

You guys are better versed in TS then me but could we get an eye pretty soon?
Image
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1482 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:16 am

ocala wrote:You guys are better versed in TS then me but could we get an eye pretty soon?
Image


i would be surprised if we dont have an eye at some point today, when that would be who knows but its well on its way
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Re: Tampa discussion. Not making a big deal at all on Ida

#1483 Postby robbielyn » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:16 am

cycloneye wrote:
robbielyn wrote::( AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. AS IDA TRACKS NORTH OUT OF
THE CARRIBEAN BY SUNDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO RAISE SKY
COVER A BIT EACH DAY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE SHIELD OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN H5 RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ATOP FLORIDA. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND THE ACTUAL H8
TEMPERATURES THE MAV MOS SEEMED TO BE TOO HIGH ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD AND SO WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CLARITY THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. WITH IDA CURRENTLY IN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...A NORTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE
GOMEX AS A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BY NHC. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL PATH OF IDA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL TRACKS A
LITTLE MORE WEST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.


I merged the topic that you made with the main discussion thread of Ida as only threads for Invest and Tropical Cyclones are allowed in this forum.

Oops my bad :oops:
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1484 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:17 am

Ida is moving over the highest tchp (tropical cyclone heat potential) region...this could be high-octane fuel for her

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1485 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:18 am

Oops my bad


Thats ok,no problem.
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#1486 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:21 am

It's not an eye, it's an overshooting top.
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#1487 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:22 am

Image

But an eye is forming.
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Re:

#1488 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:24 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

But an eye is forming.


Impressive.They may have to bump winds to 55-60kts at 10 AM.
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Re:

#1489 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:25 am

HURAKAN wrote:It's not an eye, it's an overshooting top.


who said it was an eye?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#1490 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:26 am

Image
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1491 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:27 am

12 UTC Best Track

In line with SSD Dvorak,45kts.

AL, 11, 2009110712, , BEST, 0, 174N, 841W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest


:uarrow:
Looks like that center is east of 84W by a few degrees?
Last edited by Blown Away on Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1492 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:32 am

GFS windshear forecast ..not good

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Re: Re:

#1493 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:35 am

jlauderdal wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:It's not an eye, it's an overshooting top.


who said it was an eye?


cycloneye wrote:First visible image.Eye feature trying to pop out?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1494 Postby Macrocane » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:35 am

Ivanhater wrote: GFS windshear forecast ..not good



Not good for Ida or for the people in the gulf?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#1495 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:36 am

06z GFS

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1496 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:40 am

Macrocane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote: GFS windshear forecast ..not good



Not good for Ida or for the people in the gulf?


The windshear forecast for the gulf according to the GFS has backed off significant shear in the gulf. At 66 hours, when Ida is nearing the north central gulfcoast, windshear is light
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#1497 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:42 am

Image

Popping
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#1498 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:47 am

Ivan, looks this morning that a consensus is starting to gain favor of a Panhandle landfall or very near close before any loop takes place. I can see a 40-60mph wind with this but I would doubt anything stronger. I'm also thinking with the front approaching and the changing wind directions with height that this could have a higher threat of Tornadoes/Waterspouts.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon

#1499 Postby artist » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:48 am

cycloneye wrote:The mission for today was supposed to haved been in the air since 6:15 AM EST.But still no obs yet.Maybe,they will depart from a base much closer,Homestead base?

would make more sense so they could fly longer in the storm itself
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1500 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:50 am

Ivanhater wrote:GFS windshear forecast ..not good

Image



IF** that map is correct then the GFS not only is telling you where it thinks she is going, but saying look out as well!
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