Aric Dunn wrote:its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule
Aric, what are we looking at in the gulf if this is going faster? Any difference?
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wxman57 wrote:ozonepete wrote:
Unless it does an ET to a mostly baroclinic low...
I think the moisture from Ida will be absorbed into a baroclinic low forming on the front. And that low will be quite a nor'easter by late Wednesday/Thursday.
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MortisFL wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule
Aric, what are we looking at in the gulf if this is going faster? Any difference?
yeah i know but if it even comes close it would give them an excuseMGC wrote:All the oil and gas rigs are from Alabama west. This should not cause any problems for them....MGC
Aric Dunn wrote:MortisFL wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule
Aric, what are we looking at in the gulf if this is going faster? Any difference?
Its very hard to be for sure but the stronger its gets the longer it should hang onto tropical status. Landfall as a tropical system is still quite possible, I would give it a 50/50 chance of being tropical at the point of some sort of landfall. if it transitions the winds will become more expansive and may in some cases still be well above minimal TS winds. I think one thing everyone is missing is that the proximity to the low in the BOC is having a effect on IDA mostly probably giving it more of a northerly component that we have seen. Since they are so close they are going to in some respect interact and it may just be that the northerly component of IDA over the last day or so is do in part to the Fujiwara effect. I think the CMC had over done this effect as it is quite fast and too far to the left. I think a continued northerly motion over night will continue with a slight nnw but no where near as much as the models are forecasting afterwards it should start to get caught up in the trough and move NE to ene after that is fair game as it really depends on the state of IDA if its tropical or not. So in general no one is out of the woods.. tropical storm force winds will probably be felt over a large area regardless..
Aric Dunn wrote:MortisFL wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule
Aric, what are we looking at in the gulf if this is going faster? Any difference?
Its very hard to be for sure but the stronger its gets the longer it should hang onto tropical status. Landfall as a tropical system is still quite possible, I would give it a 50/50 chance of being tropical at the point of some sort of landfall. if it transitions the winds will become more expansive and may in some cases still be well above minimal TS winds. I think one thing everyone is missing is that the proximity to the low in the BOC is having a effect on IDA mostly probably giving it more of a northerly component that we have seen. Since they are so close they are going to in some respect interact and it may just be that the northerly component of IDA over the last day or so is do in part to the Fujiwara effect. I think the CMC had over done this effect as it is quite fast and too far to the left. I think a continued northerly motion over night will continue with a slight nnw but no where near as much as the models are forecasting afterwards it should start to get caught up in the trough and move NE to ene after that is fair game as it really depends on the state of IDA if its tropical or not. So in general no one is out of the woods.. tropical storm force winds will probably be felt over a large area regardless..
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