ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Can't figure why the eye is deforming like that? Intensification?

Most likely- i think the eye will emerge somewhat medium and round

[Blown Away]

Shock us how?

The ultimate track being something other than what is being advertised, nothing scientific, just a gut feeling given it's November and all the craziness with the models, BOC low, etc.

[Aric Dunn]

What is the GFDL saying?

Cat 2 landfall on the western panhandle.

Which model is the most reliable and if the storm does make landfall as a CAT 2 into the FL panhandle what kind of weather could I possibly experience here in Biloxi? Lots of rain and some wind or stronger winds and lots of rain?

if it hit east of you then you would be on the safe side.. you get rain and wind yes..

but its too early to tell exactly whats going to happen there are a lot of uncertainties right now..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tomorrow morning- actually this morning- in about 6-7 hours- many
lay folk are gonna wake up and turn on the news to a much stronger storm then they might have expected- not that it will stay that strong to the coast...but
you know what caribbean does with that heat content...

[HURAKAN]

[Alacane2]

Is there any chance that Ida could make landfall as far west as Mobile?

[Thunder44]

Does the UKMET have a graphic or a link?

The new run is out to 72hrs here. It's just south of the FL panhandle, moving ENE by that time:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_0z/ukloop.html

It should be out to 144hrs here in the next hour or so:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHE ... kloop.html

[Aric Dunn]

Is there any chance that Ida could make landfall as far west as Mobile?

yes, but a exactly location cannot be pinned down or how strong.. just keep and eye on it.

[Sanibel]

If this hard left continues it will go over Cancun. If it is just a jog it should stair step north soon.


I've seen this before. Bumps in the transition zone between Caribbean tropical airmass and Gulf.

[Blown Away]

BTW, Ida still moving WNW on the radar towards Cancun.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080628
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 24 20091108
062030 1900N 08413W 8432 01548 0079 +164 +130 210033 033 023 002 00
062100 1859N 08412W 8432 01549 0079 +165 +130 210032 032 025 001 00
062130 1858N 08411W 8430 01550 0081 +165 +130 209032 032 023 003 00
062200 1857N 08410W 8430 01550 0080 +164 +131 209031 031 025 001 00
062230 1856N 08409W 8429 01551 0081 +165 +131 209031 031 025 001 00
062300 1855N 08407W 8429 01553 0080 +165 +131 209031 031 023 002 00
062330 1854N 08406W 8432 01551 0080 +165 +131 210030 030 023 003 00
062400 1853N 08405W 8429 01553 0082 +165 +131 208031 031 024 001 00
062430 1851N 08404W 8429 01555 0080 +166 +131 208031 031 023 003 00
062500 1850N 08403W 8430 01552 0080 +168 +131 207030 031 023 003 00
062530 1849N 08402W 8429 01553 0080 +165 +132 205030 030 022 002 00
062600 1848N 08400W 8429 01554 0080 +165 +132 204029 030 024 000 00
062630 1848N 08400W 8429 01554 0081 +166 +132 201030 031 024 001 03
062700 1847N 08358W 8426 01558 0081 +166 +133 197030 030 999 999 03
062730 1849N 08357W 8326 01661 0079 +162 +135 199028 029 017 002 03
062800 1850N 08358W 8168 01821 0080 +151 +137 201027 027 021 004 03
062830 1852N 08359W 7989 02013 0078 +143 +135 206027 028 023 002 00
062900 1854N 08359W 7807 02209 0080 +130 +130 211028 028 025 002 00
062930 1856N 08400W 7623 02403 0071 +121 +121 212028 028 025 002 00
063000 1858N 08400W 7443 02605 0070 +111 +111 215030 030 024 002 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

BTW, Ida still moving WNW on the radar towards Cancun.

I'm seeing NW movement on satellite tracking the warm spot.

[deltadog03]

EURO says hello to gulfport/biloxi/just east of NOLA on tues 00z..... so, basically monday night late. SFC pressure is around 996-998mb ish. Not bad from a global. So ****IF these runs tonight are close to being right** then 975-980mb at landfall is not that far fetched.

[attallaman]

Cat 2 at landfall it appears on this run from the GFDL

Was George a CAT 2 when it made landfall near here in 1998?

[Blown Away]

Accuweather says hurricane conditions for Cancun.

[attallaman]

EURO says hello to gulfport/biloxi/just east of NOLA on tues 00z..... so, basically monday night late. SFC pressure is around 996-998mb ish. Not bad from a global. So ****IF these runs tonight are close to being right** then 975-980mb at landfall is not that far fetched.

Say what? Is that Euro reliable? Nothing good on TV earlier tonight but being here has certainly been interesting to say the least.

[Macrocane]

Cat 2 at landfall it appears on this run from the GFDL

Was George a CAT 2 when it made landfall near here in 1998?

Yes, Georges was a cat 2 one it made landfall in Mississippi

[deltadog03]

[deltadog03]

Kinda ominous with a global showing 997mb at landfall. Might be closer to 975mb, like gfdl and hwrf are showing.