ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Dionne
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Age: 74
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:51 am
Location: SW Mississippi....Alaska transplant via a Southern Belle.

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2601 Postby Dionne » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:46 am

Already!!?? NWS at 429AM this morning issued a coastal flood watch until midnight at which time it becomes a coastal flood warning until noon on Tuesday for the greater NOLA area and Mississippi coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#2602 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:47 am

Ida looks to be in a steady or slightly weaker state. Does look like she peaked, but something similar happened late yesterday afternoon, when the pressure rose a couple of mb and she held at 70. If she slows in the channel, I still think there is a chance at another round of strengthening that could get her to cat 2.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#2603 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:50 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2604 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:54 am

Looks like IDA is bursting again. Cloud tops around center and the CDO look like they are cooling again.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2605 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:55 am

Indirect effects of Ida....been experiencing those big time in southeast florida due to the increased pressure gradient between high pressure and Ida. Sustained winds of 25-30 mph (highest on coast) with gusts up to and over 40 mph are forecast down here today and tomorrow.

The NHC wouldn't even have room to add to the list of advisories/warnings that NWS Miami has hoisted:
Gale Warning
Small Craft Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory (eastern half of south fla)
Coastal Flood Statement

Dionne wrote:Already!!?? NWS at 429AM this morning issued a coastal flood watch until midnight at which time it becomes a coastal flood warning until noon on Tuesday for the greater NOLA area and Mississippi coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1317
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2606 Postby BigA » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:56 am

looks to, IMHO, be starting to pull east of north
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7185
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2607 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:59 am

BigA wrote:looks to, IMHO, be starting to pull east of north


dont forget that these systems never move in a straight line for very long, you have to look at the mean motion for at least 12 hours
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2608 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:59 am

Outflow looks pretty good as well. Clouds are "fanning" out pretty good in all quads except for the Eastern Side.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#2609 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:01 am

deltadog03 wrote:Outflow looks pretty good as well. Clouds are "fanning" out pretty good in all quads except for the Eastern Side.


Chris,what do you think of that nice eyewall?

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#2610 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:01 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#2611 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:03 am

Marine Forecast for the central Gulf of Mexico. They have the possibility mentioned of gusts to 105kts!! :eek:


GMZ084-081530-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
330 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...HURRICANE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING S OF 25N THIS MORNING...
...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 88W TUE...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 25N E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13
FT IN E SWELL BUILDING 10 TO 15 FT TONIGHT. S OF 25N E WINDS 25
TO 35 KT INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT BUILDING 16 TO 24 FT IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS S OF 25N.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM NE...105 NM SE...75 SW AND 115 NM NW QUADRANTS.
HIGHEST WINDS 80 KT GUSTS TO 100 KT DECREASE TO 65 KT GUST 80 KT
MON NIGHT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 28 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. S OF 24N S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS
7 TO 9 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND SQUALLS N OF 25N.
0 likes   

attallaman

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2612 Postby attallaman » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:04 am

Can I still expect some weather out of this system here in Biloxi or is it now definitely WC of FL bound?
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2613 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:05 am

Luis, the eyewall looks pretty good all things considered. LOL, it is november right? :D
I think its got another 12-18 hours to strengthen. I find it interesting the the hwrf and gfdl try to strengthen it a bit in the gom on various runs. Im not sure if there are other influences, *talking about maybe some non tropical influences* on it or its just moving quickly and lower shear doing the trick. I still like my forecast of a cat 1 near panama city. I might adjust that a bit west today if models keep sticking to that idea.
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2614 Postby tailgater » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:06 am

The strenght of IDA should have some say as to her direction and landfall
weaker storm
Image
stronger storm
Image
Last edited by tailgater on Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#2615 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:06 am

It looks like some intensification is going on. I would not call it RI, but the eye wall looks to be closing and cloud tops are cooling.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2616 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:09 am

it is november right?


Yes is november but more than that is an el nino year so this may be considered an anomaly.That is why the seasons last 6 months and that is why we cant discount anything in the tropics or the saying "never say never".
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2617 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:12 am

First November hurricane during an el nino since 1925! Think of it as Mother Nature reminding us who is in charge...

cycloneye wrote:
it is november right?


Yes is november but more than that is an el nino year so this may be considered an anomaly.That is why the seasons last 6 months and that is why we cant discount anything in the tropics or the saying "never say never".
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2618 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:16 am

A little promo here. :) There are plenty of webcams posted at the thread with sticky at the top of forum where you can see different places from Cancun,Cozumel to the gulf coast where there are many posted that are spread out and Florida Peninsula.If anyone has more cams or observations from those areas,including wind advisories from those places,dont hesitate and post there.

Link to sticky thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106995&p=1942746#p1942746
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2619 Postby cpdaman » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:17 am

guys is that low in the western gulf somewhat of a wildcard regarding it's evolution and effects on the track and intensity of IDA going forward
Last edited by cpdaman on Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22984
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#2620 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:20 am

I think Ida's about peaked in intensity now. Cloud tops are starting to warm. Latest model guidance puts what's left of Ida on the Gulf Coast Monday night. At that point it will be embedded in the jet core along the cold front. Moisture will be stripped off north of the center during the day Monday, so there won't be much to make "landfall" on the Gulf Coast. Ida will merge with the frontal low Tuesday morning and the whole mess will become a big Nor'easter Wednesday night/Thursday.

I just don't buy that hooking track to the southeast. I don't think there will be anything left of Ida to do that. Fewer models are showing the hook, and I suspect the NHC will give up on it soon.
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest