ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dionne]

Already!!?? NWS at 429AM this morning issued a coastal flood watch until midnight at which time it becomes a coastal flood warning until noon on Tuesday for the greater NOLA area and Mississippi coast.

[Emmett_Brown]

Ida looks to be in a steady or slightly weaker state. Does look like she peaked, but something similar happened late yesterday afternoon, when the pressure rose a couple of mb and she held at 70. If she slows in the channel, I still think there is a chance at another round of strengthening that could get her to cat 2.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[deltadog03]

Looks like IDA is bursting again. Cloud tops around center and the CDO look like they are cooling again.

[jinftl]

Indirect effects of Ida....been experiencing those big time in southeast florida due to the increased pressure gradient between high pressure and Ida. Sustained winds of 25-30 mph (highest on coast) with gusts up to and over 40 mph are forecast down here today and tomorrow.

The NHC wouldn't even have room to add to the list of advisories/warnings that NWS Miami has hoisted:
Gale Warning
Small Craft Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory (eastern half of south fla)
Coastal Flood Statement

Already!!?? NWS at 429AM this morning issued a coastal flood watch until midnight at which time it becomes a coastal flood warning until noon on Tuesday for the greater NOLA area and Mississippi coast.

[BigA]

looks to, IMHO, be starting to pull east of north

[jlauderdal]

looks to, IMHO, be starting to pull east of north

dont forget that these systems never move in a straight line for very long, you have to look at the mean motion for at least 12 hours

[deltadog03]

Outflow looks pretty good as well. Clouds are "fanning" out pretty good in all quads except for the Eastern Side.

[cycloneye]

Outflow looks pretty good as well. Clouds are "fanning" out pretty good in all quads except for the Eastern Side.

Chris,what do you think of that nice eyewall?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Dean4Storms]

Marine Forecast for the central Gulf of Mexico. They have the possibility mentioned of gusts to 105kts!!


GMZ084-081530-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
330 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...HURRICANE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING S OF 25N THIS MORNING...
...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 88W TUE...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 25N E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13
FT IN E SWELL BUILDING 10 TO 15 FT TONIGHT. S OF 25N E WINDS 25
TO 35 KT INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT BUILDING 16 TO 24 FT IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS S OF 25N.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM NE...105 NM SE...75 SW AND 115 NM NW QUADRANTS.
HIGHEST WINDS 80 KT GUSTS TO 100 KT DECREASE TO 65 KT GUST 80 KT
MON NIGHT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 28 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. S OF 24N S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS
7 TO 9 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND SQUALLS N OF 25N.

[attallaman]

Can I still expect some weather out of this system here in Biloxi or is it now definitely WC of FL bound?

[deltadog03]

Luis, the eyewall looks pretty good all things considered. LOL, it is november right?
I think its got another 12-18 hours to strengthen. I find it interesting the the hwrf and gfdl try to strengthen it a bit in the gom on various runs. Im not sure if there are other influences, *talking about maybe some non tropical influences* on it or its just moving quickly and lower shear doing the trick. I still like my forecast of a cat 1 near panama city. I might adjust that a bit west today if models keep sticking to that idea.

[tailgater]

The strenght of IDA should have some say as to her direction and landfall
weaker storm

stronger storm

[Dean4Storms]

It looks like some intensification is going on. I would not call it RI, but the eye wall looks to be closing and cloud tops are cooling.

[cycloneye]

it is november right?

Yes is november but more than that is an el nino year so this may be considered an anomaly.That is why the seasons last 6 months and that is why we cant discount anything in the tropics or the saying "never say never".

[jinftl]

First November hurricane during an el nino since 1925! Think of it as Mother Nature reminding us who is in charge...

it is november right?

Yes is november but more than that is an el nino year so this may be considered an anomaly.That is why the seasons last 6 months and that is why we cant discount anything in the tropics or the saying "never say never".

[cycloneye]

A little promo here. There are plenty of webcams posted at the thread with sticky at the top of forum where you can see different places from Cancun,Cozumel to the gulf coast where there are many posted that are spread out and Florida Peninsula.If anyone has more cams or observations from those areas,including wind advisories from those places,dont hesitate and post there.

Link to sticky thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106995&p=1942746#p1942746

[cpdaman]

guys is that low in the western gulf somewhat of a wildcard regarding it's evolution and effects on the track and intensity of IDA going forward

[wxman57]

I think Ida's about peaked in intensity now. Cloud tops are starting to warm. Latest model guidance puts what's left of Ida on the Gulf Coast Monday night. At that point it will be embedded in the jet core along the cold front. Moisture will be stripped off north of the center during the day Monday, so there won't be much to make "landfall" on the Gulf Coast. Ida will merge with the frontal low Tuesday morning and the whole mess will become a big Nor'easter Wednesday night/Thursday.

I just don't buy that hooking track to the southeast. I don't think there will be anything left of Ida to do that. Fewer models are showing the hook, and I suspect the NHC will give up on it soon.