ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[CrazyC83]

That almost looks like an extratropical storm now.

[MGC]

Burst of convection near the center, Ida is still fighting....I look for the surface track to shift a bit more west today. I think Ida will come in near Ocean Springs Miss. The storm should continue to weaken.

Ed Rappaport was just on WDSU Ch 6 in New Orleans. He said the more west Ida goes the weaker it will become as the cyclone is decoupling......NGC

[attallaman]

What caused the track to shift Ida back towards the W? Early this morning wasn't Ida forecasted to go into the panhandle of FL? What moved it back towards the W? A ridge of H pressure?

[RNGR]

i wish people would keep posting on this, theres still a very strong cyclone in the gulf.. the wind threat may be dropping but theres still a storm surge, heavy rainfall, and possible tornado threat.

[Kennethb]

Could Ida and other blob in NW GOM be competing/affecting movement and perhaps become one low?

[brunota2003]

What caused the track to shift Ida back towards the W? Early this morning wasn't Ida forecasted to go into the panhandle of FL? What moved it back towards the W? A ridge of H pressure?

I believe it has to do with steering currents. I remember a post yesterday showing the charts, a weaker system would go further west compared to a stronger system. Ida is now weaker, thanks to most of her former self being sheared away to the NE.

[stormy1970al]

That is right over our heads here

I know. I am across from you over in Fairhope near Weeks Bay. Conditions over here this morning is a little wind picking up since this morning and cloudy. I haven't been down to the water yet but will be making a trip soon since the girls are driving me crazy to go. Nothing like a hurricane day. I am assuming the rain is coming. The air has that smell to it.

[somethingfunny]

Well so much for the 965mb low pressure system that was going to slam the Gulf Coast. I suppose it could still happen depending on how the Extratropical transition goes.

Even so I think the models did very well with Hurricane Ida, considering the complicated situation. What's frightening is that the GFDL's early forecasts could have easily verified had Ida remained offshore of Nicuragua. I don't think any of us really expected this to make a run at Category 3 status in the Yucatan Channel but several models (GFDL and HWRF mainly) were consistently predicting Ida to intensify into quite a significant storm which it did do.

The SE motion might end up verifying too. Taking a look at the BAMS (shallow-layer steering flow) model it seems pretty likely that once Ida's LLC and MLC decouple, the LLC may never actually make landfall although the mid-level circulation and most of the energy will still bring heavy weather to the southeastern US.

[wxman57]

1330Z HRD Ida wind field analysis indicates only a small area of 50+ kt winds SE of the center now. Weakening fast. I think that the immediate coastal areas will see sustained winds of 35-45 mph and some higher gusts, but that's about it.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

[rolltide]

What caused the track to shift Ida back towards the W? Early this morning wasn't Ida forecasted to go into the panhandle of FL? What moved it back towards the W? A ridge of H pressure?

I believe it has to do with steering currents. I remember a post yesterday showing the charts, a weaker system would go further west compared to a stronger system. Ida is now weaker, thanks to most of her former self being sheared away to the NE.

I think the increase in forward speed is the reason for the shift west.

[somethingfunny]

i wish people would keep posting on this, theres still a very strong cyclone in the gulf.. the wind threat may be dropping but theres still a storm surge, heavy rainfall, and possible tornado threat.

I agree 100%.

[deltadog03]

Nice blow up of storms over the LLC right now.

[RNGR]

after looking over the models on PSU ewall. i think that the flash flood watch and forecast 3-6 inches in north Georgia is quite overdone. it looks like most of the weather will stay on the north gulf coast area.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/regions12z.html

[tolakram]

High speed visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

The engine is still running, but becoming exposed.

Zoomed out:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

[Blown Away]

Nice blow up of storms over the LLC right now.

This system is getting mauled, that LLC is struggling to go NNW and everything is being blown off the NE. Can't see how that recent convection can maintain itself for to long. Very interesting system.

[deltadog03]

I still see a fairly healthy llc. its getting sheared sure, but pretty strong convection over it. and its moving nicely to the north. wxman what kind of speed of movement you getting?

[IvanSurvivor]

What is that flare up east of the islands?

[PTrackerLA]

Is that the circulation center at the bottom of the radar range south of the mouth of Miss? Seems to coincide with the blowup of convection. Also still looks to be moving NNW.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[tolakram]

Black IR again, Ida is fighting, but almost out of warm water.

[tolakram]

Mobile radar, long range.