Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#741 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:19 am

Probably not, that was probably once in a lifetime, it should get pretty cold though.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Texas2Florida
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:17 am
Location: NE Pennsylvania backwoods

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#742 Postby Texas2Florida » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:21 am

New to registering but have been lurking/reading for a long time..

Anyhoo...The "event" for next week..some of my company mets are talking almost historic event potential here as far as if all the elements come together for a southern winter storm..I'm in North Texas north of DFW area.

Whats the consensus? I see a little twitter here and there about it but mostly talking about the non-event expected for DFW on friday..
0 likes   
Real women wear firesuits! --self proclaimed NASCAR princess.

User avatar
mysterymachinebl
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 56
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2007 12:19 pm
Location: Littleton, Co

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#743 Postby mysterymachinebl » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:28 am

Texas2Florida wrote:New to registering but have been lurking/reading for a long time..

Anyhoo...The "event" for next week..some of my company mets are talking almost historic event potential here as far as if all the elements come together for a southern winter storm..I'm in North Texas north of DFW area.

Whats the consensus? I see a little twitter here and there about it but mostly talking about the non-event expected for DFW on friday..


I think we'll hear a lot more after this "event" on Friday.
0 likes   

User avatar
severe
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 46
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:14 pm
Location: N/W Galveston County

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#744 Postby severe » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:55 am

mysterymachinebl wrote:
I think we'll hear a lot more after this "event" on Friday.

Ain't that the truth. I'm thinking it could be a very memorable winter for all of Texas and the southern U.S.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas2Florida
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:17 am
Location: NE Pennsylvania backwoods

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#745 Postby Texas2Florida » Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:19 am

well just watched the local weather repeats..seems no one is picking up on the cold blast for next week, forecast is lows in the 40's highs almost 60...but I've looked at the models posted here and based on comments..they could be way off?
0 likes   
Real women wear firesuits! --self proclaimed NASCAR princess.

richtrav
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 184
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:48 pm
Location: South Texas

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#746 Postby richtrav » Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:28 am

AggieSpirit wrote:This potential cold outbreak next week -- are we talking 1989 or 1983 again?

It's been a while since something truly remarkable like that happened....


LOL, I just KNEW this would come up :-) I can set my watch now, winter has officially started

Short answer, no, it's too early in the season and temps up north aren't nearly cold enough. When you see temps below -40 spilling into Montana then it's time to start worrying.

Not that anyone would ever want an Arctic outbreak of that magnitude again, but I can't find a record of one occurring in TX during an El Niño winter, at least in the 20th century. Mericfully such extreme outbreaks into the southern US have waned considerably over the past two decades. Funny thing though is I have this perception, in my little foggy head at least, that these (relatively) harmless light snow and ice events have become, if anything, more common than they were back in the much colder '70s and '80s when I was growing up
0 likes   

User avatar
zaqxsw75050
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 178
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2008 4:21 pm
Location: Hong Kong

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#747 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:27 am

0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#748 Postby iorange55 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:32 am

zaqxsw75050 wrote:06z NAM = no snow for Houston?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml



Eh Yeah saw that, but it's the NAM and it hasn't been showing too much precip. Doesn't make much sense how it builds that moisture into southwest texas then it goes where? No where? Doesn't make much sense. I'll wait for the GFS 06 if it shows the same thing it's been showing then I'd trust that more than the NAM.
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#749 Postby iorange55 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:44 am

GFS 06 still looking consistent


Image



Image
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#750 Postby southerngale » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:58 am

I just checked my 7-day forecast from NWS and a Winter Storm Watch just went up! Image

Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...AN UNSEASONABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING...

.ANOTHER GULF COAST LOW WILL FORM JUST OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE ON FRIDAY...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE ENTERING THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ROBUST FEATURE
WILL PHASE IN WITH A WESTERLY DISTURBANCE ALOFT...GENERATING
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO SNOW BY FRIDAY
EVENING...
AS THE GULF COAST LOW EXITS EASTWARD.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-031900-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.A.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CONTINUOUS SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHT...ENDING NEAR DAWN.


ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES MAY BE IMPACTED. MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


Image


Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...AN UNSEASONABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING...

.ANOTHER GULF COAST LOW WILL FORM JUST OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE ON FRIDAY...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE ENTERING THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ROBUST FEATURE
WILL PHASE IN WITH A WESTERLY DISTURBANCE ALOFT...GENERATING
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO SNOW BY FRIDAY
EVENING..
.AS THE GULF COAST LOW EXITS EASTWARD.

LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-031900-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.A.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CONTINUOUS SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHT...ENDING NEAR DAWN.


ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES MAY BE IMPACTED. MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#751 Postby iorange55 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:03 am

Dallas NWS mentions next week

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. IF THE CURRENT GFS
SOLUTION MATERIALIZES...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
SNOW WILL ARRIVE TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.



Also says snow showers for Dallas tomorrow, and southern counties may see an inch or two at most.



The Oklahoma NWS is not trusting any models for next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#752 Postby Portastorm » Thu Dec 03, 2009 6:56 am

Based on the latest GFS runs, looks like we may see up to an inch here in Austin tomorrow but areas to our east (and Aggieland) may see much more. Will be curious about the 12z runs today to see if the precipitation swath changes at all.

The 0z Euro is definitely deeper and sharper with the short-wave trough rolling through so that's a good sign as well.

Edit update: The 6z NAM and GFS remove precip chances totally in south central Texas. :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#753 Postby iorange55 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:21 am

Portastorm wrote:Based on the latest GFS runs, looks like we may see up to an inch here in Austin tomorrow but areas to our east (and Aggieland) may see much more. Will be curious about the 12z runs today to see if the precipitation swath changes at all.

The 0z Euro is definitely deeper and sharper with the short-wave trough rolling through so that's a good sign as well.

Edit update: The 6z NAM and GFS remove precip chances totally in south central Texas. :cry:



Really just the NAM removed it. But reading some of the NWS discussions they're not trusting the NAM. They seem to think with the lift it'll produce enough moisture for at least some snow down there. Austin/San Antonio said that there could be a inch or two there, and possibly even 4 in some places.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#754 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:24 am

Nonetheless it's the 6z NAM, not that trustworthy anyhow :P I wouldn't worry
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cperez1549
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:42 am
Contact:

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#755 Postby cperez1549 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:25 am

One Question. I live in Deep South Texas in Harlingen about 350 Miles South Of Houston. I am seeing the models of both the NAM and GFS and they are showing the freeze line coming this far south. Am I seeing this correct and do you think we have a chance for frozen stuff. I live in Harlingen and they have a 20% Chance of Rain Low of 33. What do you all think?
0 likes   

Corey_n_clute
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:40 pm

#756 Postby Corey_n_clute » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:48 am

welp pretty much all bets are off for the coast to get nething but a cold rain...oh well maybe next time! :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re:

#757 Postby iorange55 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:00 am

Corey_n_clute wrote:welp pretty much all bets are off for the coast to get nething but a cold rain...oh well maybe next time! :wink:




Which Coast?
0 likes   

Corey_n_clute
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:40 pm

#758 Postby Corey_n_clute » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:01 am

coast being us here in brazoria county..like brazoria,angleton,lakejackson...
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re:

#759 Postby iorange55 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:04 am

Corey_n_clute wrote:coast being us here in brazoria county..like brazoria,angleton,lakejackson...





NWS forecast for Lake Jackson

Friday: A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
0 likes   

Corey_n_clute
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:40 pm

Re: Re:

#760 Postby Corey_n_clute » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:07 am

iorange55 wrote:
Corey_n_clute wrote:coast being us here in brazoria county..like brazoria,angleton,lakejackson...





NWS forecast for Lake Jackson

Friday: A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


yeah..but i have a hard time believen that lol..i know that our area will be the last to see it chage over to snow but i doubt there willl be any most.left
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests